Lille – Lens: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Ligue 1 · France · Matchday 9

LilleLigue 1 · #2

1-0Friday, October 30

LensLigue 1 · #8

Match events

LilleLens

10'Saud Abdulhamid
45'Davide Ancelotti
62'⇄Junior KadileOff: Florian Sotoca
62'⇄Kyllian AntonioOff: Jean-Clair Todibo
69'⇄Franjo IvanovicOff: Thorgan Hazard
69'⇄Yassine TitraouiOff: Michaël Cuisance

Chances to win

Lille%37

Draw%28

Lens%35

At a glance

Over 1.5

%50Over 2.5

%55Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Both score.

%55Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Missed

Other scenarios

Under 2.5%50

Over 2.5%50

Not both score%45

Lille win%37

Lens win%35

Draw%28

Why?

Lille: both sides scored in 5 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

LilleD1-1L2-4D1-1L0-3W1-0

LensW2-1L0-3W3-1L0-2W2-1

Last 15 meetings

8Lille won

4Draw

3Lens won

2.5
Goals per game8/15
Over 2.57/15
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Lille · last 10 at home2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 5 games it led at half-time.

Lens · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Lille · last 10 at home4.5 corners, 2.2 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/10Over 4.5 corners4/10Over 5.5 corners

Lens · last 10 away6.6 corners, 2.4 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners9/10Over 4.5 corners8/10Over 5.5 corners7/10Over 0.5 cards10/10Over 1.5 cards8/10

Bench

O. Gill, C. Verdonk, I. Cossier, M. Kjærgaard, D. Bakwa, O. Giroud, O. Sahraoui, B. Önal, G. Perrin

Lens · 3-4-2-1

40R. Risser

2R. Aguilar

6S. Baidoo

20J. Todibo

7F. Sotoca

10F. Thauvin

14M. Udol

21A. Haidara

23Saud Abdulhamid

27M. Cuisance

9T. Hazard

Bench

M. Gorgelin, J. Gradit, K. Antonio, A. Bulatović, Y. Titraoui, M. Soares, M. Skóraś, J. Kadile, F. Ivanović

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73'⇄Olivier GiroudOff: Ethan Mbappe

73'⇄Dilane BakwaOff: Ngal'ayel Mukau

78'⇄Calvin VerdonkOff: Romain Perraud

80'⇄Andrija BulatovićOff: Amadou Haidara

86'⚽Olivier Giroud

90+1'⇄Gaëtan PerrinOff: Hákon Arnar Haraldsson

Statistics

62%Possession38%

1.8Expected goals0.25

16Total shots5

7Shots on target3

10Corners2

7Fouls14

1Offsides0

0Yellow cards1

0Red cards0

3Saves6

Lens: both sides scored in 7 of their last 10 away matches.

Lille scored 1.4 and conceded 1.3 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Lens scored 1.8 and conceded 1.9 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Lille · last 10 at home: both scored 5 times5/10

Lens · last 10 away: both scored 7 times7/10

Lille: 10 games · Lens: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.2Goals scored (avg)1.8

1.3Goals conceded (avg)1.7

2.5Total goals per gameleague 3.03.5

9/10Over 0.5league %9210/10

7/10Over 1.5league %799/10

3/10Over 2.5league %618/10

3/10Over 3.5league %365/10

2/10Over 4.5league %162/10

5/10Both scoreleague %637/10

4/10Clean sheets1/10

2/10Failed to score2/10

Lille: 10 games · Lens: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.2Goals scored (avg)1.3

1.4Goals conceded (avg)1.6

2.6Total goals per gameleague 3.02.9

10/10Over 0.5league %9210/10

7/10Over 1.5league %798/10

4/10Over 2.5league %617/10

2/10Over 3.5league %363/10

2/10Over 4.5league %161/10

5/10Both scoreleague %636/10

4/10Clean sheets0/10

1/10Failed to score4/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

86'

Olivier Giroud decided it in minute 86.

%76 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Lille win 761, 194 end level and Lens win 45. The actual result comes up 761 times in 1000.

1.80 – 0.25 The score the chances deserved (xG): Lille 1.80 – 0.25 Lens.

16 – 5 Shots: Lille 16 – 5 Lens.

3 more numbers for this match in Premium

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 15 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Lille · Ligue 1

Lens · Ligue 1

Lille · All games

Lens · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Lille's ground

Last 15 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match