Lille – Stade Brestois 29: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Ligue 1 · France · Matchday 7

LilleLigue 1 · #2

1-1Saturday, October 17

Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1 · #13

Match events

LilleStade Brestois 29

6'⚽Mama BaldéAssist: Gautier Lloris
13'Kamory Doumbia
45'⇄Joseph NongeOff: Mama Baldé
54'⇄Calvin VerdonkOff: Romain Perraud
58'Bradley Locko
64'⚽Olivier GiroudPenalty

Chances to win

Lille%48

Draw%26

Stade Brestois 29%27

At a glance

Over 1.5

%55Over 2.5

%58Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%55Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Missed

Other scenarios

Both score%58

Lille win%48

Under 2.5%45

Not both score%42

Stade Brestois 29 win%27

Draw%26

Why?

Lille: 3+ goals in 3 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

LilleL0-3W1-0L1-2W2-0L2-3

Stade Brestois 29W5-1L1-2L0-1W2-1D2-2

Last 8 meetings

3Lille won

4Draw

1Stade Brestois 29 won

2.5
Goals per game3/8
Over 2.55/8
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Lille · last 10 at home2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 5 games it led at half-time.

Stade Brestois 29 · last 10 away0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Lille · last 10 at home4.5 corners, 2.1 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/10Over 4.5 corners4/10Over 5.5 corners

Stade Brestois 29 · last 10 away3.9 corners, 1.4 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners4/10Over 4.5 corners3/10Over 5.5 corners2/10Over 0.5 cards9/10Over 1.5 cards3/10

Bench

C. Verdonk, I. Cossier, N. Bentaleb, M. Kjærgaard, B. Önal, G. Perrin, S. Diaoune

Stade Brestois 29 · 4-2-3-1

1E. Selvik

2B. Locko

4G. Lloris

29L. Tousart

70K. Lala

8H. Magnetti

9P. Mboup

13J. Chotard

17Mama Baldé

23K. Doumbia

19L. Ajorque

Bench

M. Patouillet, J. Bourgault, L. Zogbe, M. Diambou, J. Nonge Boende, Ibrahim Yayiya Kante, D. N´Guessan

Stade Brestois 29 – LilleMarch 17, 2024 · Ligue 11-1

Lille – Stade Brestois 29October 22, 2023 · Ligue 11-0

Lille – Stade Brestois 29February 24, 2023 · Ligue 12-1

Stade Brestois 29 – LilleJanuary 11, 2023 · Ligue 10-0

Nabil BentalebOff: Benjamin André

65'⇄Soriba DiaouneOff: Dilane Bakwa

77'⇄Ibrahim Yayiya KantéOff: Pathé Mboup

77'⇄Maurits KjaergaardOff: Ngal'ayel Mukau

82'⇄Mamady DiambouOff: Kamory Doumbia

Statistics

67%Possession33%

1.91Expected goals0.82

17Total shots8

6Shots on target2

5Corners2

11Fouls20

3Offsides0

1Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

1Saves5

Stade Brestois 29: 3+ goals in 5 of their last 10 away matches.

Lille scored 1.2 and conceded 1.0 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Stade Brestois 29 scored 0.8 and conceded 1.7 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Stade Brestois 29 · last 10 away: 3+ goals 5 times5/10

Lille: 10 games · Stade Brestois 29: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.2Goals scored (avg)0.8

1.3Goals conceded (avg)1.7

2.5Total goals per gameleague 3.02.5

9/10Over 0.5league %9210/10

7/10Over 1.5league %798/10

3/10Over 2.5league %615/10

3/10Over 3.5league %362/10

2/10Over 4.5league %160/10

5/10Both scoreleague %635/10

4/10Clean sheets1/10

2/10Failed to score4/10

Lille: 10 games · Stade Brestois 29: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.2Goals scored (avg)1.6

1.4Goals conceded (avg)1.5

2.6Total goals per gameleague 3.03.1

10/10Over 0.5league %9210/10

7/10Over 1.5league %799/10

4/10Over 2.5league %617/10

2/10Over 3.5league %363/10

2/10Over 4.5league %161/10

5/10Both scoreleague %639/10

4/10Clean sheets0/10

1/10Failed to score1/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%22 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Lille win 631, 215 end level and Stade Brestois 29 win 154. The actual result comes up 215 times in 1000.

%26 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.

1.91 – 0.82 The score the chances deserved (xG): Lille 1.91 – 0.82 Stade Brestois 29.

17 – 8 Shots: Lille 17 – 8 Stade Brestois 29.

2 more numbers for this match in Premium

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 8 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Lille · Ligue 1

Stade Brestois 29 · Ligue 1

Lille · All games

Stade Brestois 29 · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Lille's ground

Last 8 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match