Arsenal – Lille: probabilities, statistics and live score

ArsenalPremier League · #2

3-0Tuesday, October 13

LilleLigue 1 · #2

Match events

ArsenalLille

29'Mikel Merino
64'⚽Jurriën TimberAssist: Noni Madueke
65'⇄Kai HavertzOff: Viktor Gyökeres
65'⇄Martin OdegaardOff: Mikel Merino
65'⇄Bukayo SakaOff: Noni Madueke
67'⚽Eberechi EzeAssist: Bukayo Saka
71'

Chances to win

Arsenal%78

Draw%14

Lille%7

At a glance

Over 1.5

%62Over 2.5

%44Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

Last 5 matches

ArsenalW2-1L0-3W4-2W2-0W1-0

LilleW1-0L1-2W2-0L2-3W

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Arsenal · last 10 at home3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).6/10games led at half-time.Won 6 of the 6 games it led at half-time.

Lille · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 5 of the 5 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Arsenal · last 10 at home5.4 corners, 1.1 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners

Lille · 4-2-3-1

1B. Özer

3N. Ngoy

4Alexsandro Ribeiro

15R. Perraud

38M. Goffi

6N. Bentaleb

7D. Bakwa

10H. Haraldsson

17N. Mukau

21B. André

18A. Ueda

Bench

O. Gill, L. Srdanovic, T. Nianzou, C. Verdonk, I. Cossier, M. Kjærgaard, O. Giroud, O. Sahraoui, B. Önal, G. Perrin, S. Diaoune

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Arsenal win.

%78Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 8.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Over 2.5%62

Not both score%56

Both score%44

Under 2.5%38

Draw%14

Lille win%7

Why?

Arsenal · last 10 at home: 8 wins8/10

Arsenal won 8 of their last 10 home matches.
Arsenal scored 1.7 and conceded 0.4 per game in their last 10 home matches.
Lille scored 1.5 and conceded 0.6 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Arsenal: 10 games · Lille: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.1Goals scored (avg)1.3

0.2Goals conceded (avg)0.9

2.3Total goals per gameleague 3.32.2

10/10Over 0.5league %9710/10

7/10Over 1.5league %837/10

6/10Over 2.5league %604/10

0/10Over 3.5league %421/10

0/10Over 4.5league %260/10

2/10Both scoreleague %573/10

8/10Clean sheets5/10

0/10Failed to score2/10

Arsenal: 10 games · Lille: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.8Goals scored (avg)1.2

0.9Goals conceded (avg)1.4

2.7Total goals per gameleague 3.32.6

10/10Over 0.5league %9710/10

8/10Over 1.5league %837/10

5/10Over 2.5league %604/10

2/10Over 3.5league %422/10

1/10Over 4.5league %262/10

4/10Both scoreleague %575/10

5/10Clean sheets4/10

1/10Failed to score1/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

1.89 – 0.40 The score the chances deserved (xG): Arsenal 1.89 – 0.40 Lille.

%74 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Arsenal win 737, 194 end level and Lille win 70. The actual result comes up 737 times in 1000.

15 – 3 Shots: Arsenal 15 – 3 Lille.

8 – 0 Shots on target: Arsenal 8 – 0 Lille.

3 more numbers for this match in Premium

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

Last 5 matches

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Missing players

Starting line-ups

Previous meetings

Model chances

Arsenal · UEFA Champions League

Lille · UEFA Champions League

Arsenal · All games

Lille · All games

Statistics

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match