Monaco – Lille: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Ligue 1 · France · Matchday 8

MonacoLigue 1 · #4

1-1Sunday, October 25

LilleLigue 1 · #2

Match events

MonacoLille

15'⇄Mathys DetourbetOff: Ansu Fati
24'⚽Ethan MbappeAssist: Soriba Diaoune
32'Mamadou Coulibaly
34'Hákon Arnar Haraldsson
45'⇄Matthis AblineOff: Mamadou Coulibaly
45'⇄Edan DiopOff: Denis Zakaria

Chances to win

Monaco%48

Draw%27

Lille%25

At a glance

Over 1.5

%53Over 2.5

%57Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Both score.

%57Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Over 2.5%53

Monaco win%48

Under 2.5%47

Not both score%43

Draw%27

Lille win%25

Why?

Monaco: both sides scored in 5 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

MonacoW3-0L0-1W2-1D2-2W2-1

LilleL2-4D1-1L0-3W1-0L1-2

Last 15 meetings

4Monaco won

4Draw

7Lille won

2.3
Goals per game7/15
Over 2.56/15
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Monaco · last 10 at home5/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).6/10games led at half-time.Won 5 of the 6 games it led at half-time.

Lille · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 4 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Monaco · last 10 at home4.6 corners, 1.7 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners

Lille · last 10 away3.0 corners, 1.9 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners3/10Over 4.5 corners2/10Over 5.5 corners1/10Over 0.5 cards8/10Over 1.5 cards5/10

29Paris Josua Brunner

Bench

P. Köhn, C. Mawissa Elebi, M. Salisu, T. Minamino, E. Diop, I. Touré, M. Detourbet, F. Balogun, M. Abline

Lille · 4-2-3-1

1B. Özer

3N. Ngoy

4Alexsandro Ribeiro

15R. Perraud

23T. Nianzou

6N. Bentaleb

8E. Mbappé

10H. Haraldsson

17N. Mukau

21B. André

35S. Diaoune

Bench

O. Gill, C. Verdonk, I. Cossier, M. Goffi, M. Kjærgaard, D. Bakwa, O. Giroud, G. Perrin

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Monaco – LilleMarch 14, 2021 · Ligue 10-0

Lille – MonacoDecember 6, 2020 · Ligue 12-1

Monaco – LilleDecember 21, 2019 · Ligue 15-1

Monaco – LilleDecember 17, 2019 · Coupe de la Ligue0-3

Lille – MonacoMarch 15, 2019 · Ligue 10-1

63'⇄Isaac CossierOff: Soriba Diaoune

66'Nianzou Tanguy Kouassi

69'⇄Maxima GoffiOff: Ethan Mbappe

74'⚽Edan DiopAssist: Jordan Teze

80'⇄Maurits KjaergaardOff: Nabil Bentaleb

80'⇄Matah YondjioOff: Hákon Arnar Haraldsson

90+1'⇄Folarin BalogunOff: Mathys Detourbet

Statistics

64%Possession36%

2.24Expected goals0.71

20Total shots4

6Shots on target2

6Corners1

18Fouls13

3Offsides2

3Yellow cards4

0Red cards1

1Saves5

Lille: both sides scored in 3 of their last 10 away matches.

Monaco scored 2.1 and conceded 0.8 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Lille scored 1.4 and conceded 0.9 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Monaco · last 10 at home: both scored 5 times5/10

Monaco: 10 games · Lille: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.0Goals scored (avg)1.3

0.9Goals conceded (avg)0.9

2.9Total goals per gameleague 3.02.2

10/10Over 0.5league %9210/10

9/10Over 1.5league %797/10

6/10Over 2.5league %614/10

3/10Over 3.5league %361/10

1/10Over 4.5league %160/10

6/10Both scoreleague %633/10

3/10Clean sheets5/10

1/10Failed to score2/10

Monaco: 10 games · Lille: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.9Goals scored (avg)1.2

0.9Goals conceded (avg)1.4

2.8Total goals per gameleague 3.02.6

10/10Over 0.5league %9210/10

9/10Over 1.5league %797/10

6/10Over 2.5league %614/10

2/10Over 3.5league %362/10

1/10Over 4.5league %162/10

7/10Both scoreleague %635/10

2/10Clean sheets4/10

1/10Failed to score1/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%18 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Monaco win 722, 175 end level and Lille win 103. The actual result comes up 175 times in 1000.

%27 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.

2.24 – 0.71 The score the chances deserved (xG): Monaco 2.24 – 0.71 Lille.

20 – 4 Shots: Monaco 20 – 4 Lille.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 15 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Monaco · Ligue 1

Lille · Ligue 1

Monaco · All games

Lille · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Monaco's ground

Last 15 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match