Monaco – Toulouse: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Ligue 1 · France · Matchday 6

MonacoLigue 1 · #4

2-2Saturday, October 10

ToulouseLigue 1 · #11

Match events

MonacoToulouse

29'⚽Edan DiopAssist: Aleksandr Golovin
38'⚽Matthis AblineAssist: Edan Diop
45'⇄Sion OppongOff: Jacen Russell-Rowe
47'Flavio Nazinho
48'⚽Casper TengstedtPenalty
51'⇄Safouane BenzahraOff: Denis Zakaria

Chances to win

Monaco%58

Draw%23

Toulouse%20

At a glance

Over 1.5

%60Over 2.5

%59Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%60Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%59

Monaco win%58

Not both score%41

Under 2.5%40

Draw%23

Toulouse win%20

Why?

Monaco: 3+ goals in 6 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

MonacoW2-1D1-1W2-1W2-0W4-1

ToulouseW3-2D2-2L0-1D2-2L0-2

Last 8 meetings

4Monaco won

2Draw

2Toulouse won

2.5
Goals per game4/8
Over 2.55/8
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Monaco · last 10 at home5/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 5 of the 5 games it led at half-time.

Toulouse · last 10 away0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Monaco · last 10 at home4.6 corners, 2.1 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners

Toulouse · last 10 away3.2 corners, 2.3 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners3/10Over 4.5 corners2/10Over 5.5 corners2/10Over 0.5 cards9/10Over 1.5 cards8/10

Bench

P. Köhn, J. Teze, C. Mawissa Elebi, M. Salisu, S. Idumbo-Muzambo, A. Soubeir, S. Benzahra, F. Balogun, Ansu Fati

Toulouse · 4-2-3-1

16G. Restes

3M. McKenzie

5S. Koumbassa

12C. Tapé

22R. Messali

6A. Vossah

8T. Jørgensen

20C. Tengstedt

23C. Cásseres

37Y. Azizi

13J. Russell-Rowe

Bench

M. Niflore, D. Odogu, I. Diallo, N. Sigur, A. Dønnum, M. Amougou, N. Schmidt, S. Hidalgo, S. Oppong

Monaco – ToulouseFebruary 18, 2024 · Ligue 11-2

Toulouse – MonacoDecember 20, 2023 · Ligue 11-2

Monaco – ToulouseJune 3, 2023 · Ligue 11-2

Toulouse – MonacoNovember 6, 2022 · Ligue 10-2

58'⇄Folarin BalogunOff: Mathys Detourbet

58'⇄Stanis IdumboOff: Edan Diop

59'⚽Sion OppongAssist: Casper Tengstedt

70'Cristian Casseres

71'⇄Niko SigurOff: Ilyas Azizi

75'⇄Ansu FatiOff: Matthis Abline

75'⇄Jordan TezeOff: Vanderson

77'⇄Ismaïl DialloOff: Rafik Messali

84'⇄Aron DønnumOff: Alexis Vossah

84'⇄Santiago HidalgoOff: Casper Tengstedt

Statistics

58%Possession42%

1.14Expected goals1.43

16Total shots9

4Shots on target4

4Corners4

10Fouls16

0Offsides1

2Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

2Saves2

Toulouse: 3+ goals in 9 of their last 10 away matches.

Monaco scored 2.1 and conceded 1.0 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Toulouse scored 1.7 and conceded 2.3 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Monaco · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 6 times6/10

Toulouse · last 10 away: 3+ goals 9 times9/10

Monaco: 10 games · Toulouse: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.0Goals scored (avg)2.1

0.9Goals conceded (avg)2.2

2.9Total goals per gameleague 3.04.3

10/10Over 0.5league %9210/10

9/10Over 1.5league %7910/10

6/10Over 2.5league %6110/10

3/10Over 3.5league %368/10

1/10Over 4.5league %163/10

6/10Both scoreleague %639/10

3/10Clean sheets1/10

1/10Failed to score0/10

Monaco: 10 games · Toulouse: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.9Goals scored (avg)1.6

0.9Goals conceded (avg)1.3

2.8Total goals per gameleague 3.02.9

10/10Over 0.5league %929/10

9/10Over 1.5league %798/10

6/10Over 2.5league %617/10

2/10Over 3.5league %364/10

1/10Over 4.5league %161/10

7/10Both scoreleague %636/10

2/10Clean sheets2/10

1/10Failed to score3/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%26 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Monaco win 301, 262 end level and Toulouse win 437. The actual result comes up 262 times in 1000.

%23 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.

1.14 – 1.43 The score the chances deserved (xG): Monaco 1.14 – 1.43 Toulouse.

7.9

Man of the match: E. Diop (Monaco), rated 7.9.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 8 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Monaco · Ligue 1

Toulouse · Ligue 1

Monaco · All games

Toulouse · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Monaco's ground

Last 8 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match