Sparta Rotterdam – Ajax: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Eredivisie · Netherlands · Matchday 10

Sparta RotterdamEredivisie · #14

1-2Sunday, October 25

AjaxEredivisie · #2

Match events

Sparta RotterdamAjax

22'⚽Abdellah OuazaneAssist: Julian Brandt
43'⚽Jens ToornstraAssist: Isaac Achmed Koroma Junior Babadi
45'⇄Davy KlaassenOff: Viktor Tsygankov
45+1'⚽Tolu ArokodareAssist: Julian Brandt
56'⇄Mitchell Van BergenOff: Jens Toornstra
61'⇄Oscar GloukhOff: Abdellah Ouazane

Chances to win

Sparta Rotterdam%18

Draw%19

Ajax%62

At a glance

Over 1.5

%70Over 2.5

%64Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%70Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 7.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%64

Ajax win%62

Not both score%36

Under 2.5%30

Draw%19

Sparta Rotterdam win%18

Why?

Sparta Rotterdam: 3+ goals in 6 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

Sparta RotterdamW3-2D3-3L0-4L1-4D2-2

AjaxW2-0W5-2L1-2D1-1D2-2

Last 15 meetings

0Sparta Rotterdam won

3Draw

12Ajax won

3.5
Goals per game10/15
Over 2.59/15
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Sparta Rotterdam · last 10 at home1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Ajax · last 10 away7/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).6/10games led at half-time.Won 5 of the 6 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Sparta Rotterdam · last 10 at home5.3 corners, 2.0 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners

Ajax · last 10 away7.0 corners, 2.0 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners9/10Over 4.5 corners7/10Over 5.5 corners6/10Over 0.5 cards7/10Over 1.5 cards7/10

Bench

F. Bednarek, P. Kuiper, B. Reith, Teo Quintero, G. Vianello, J. Baas, A. Roaldsøy, M. van Bergen, C. Terho, Joel Ideho

Ajax · 4-3-3

1M. ter Stegen

2Lucas Rosa

6T. Kehrer

15Y. Baas

36D. Janse

4S. Amrabat

8J. Brandt

24J. Mokio

11V. Tsygankov

68A. Ouazane

99T. Arokodare

Bench

J. Heerkens, M. Paes, O. Wijndal, D. Blind, Jofre Torrents, A. Bouwman, O. Gloukh, D. Klaassen, Y. Bissouma, Mohamed Abdalla, Marcos Leonardo, Rayane Bounida

Sparta Rotterdam – AjaxMarch 17, 2024 · Eredivisie2-2

Ajax – Sparta RotterdamDecember 9, 2023 · Eredivisie2-1

Ajax – Sparta RotterdamFebruary 19, 2023 · Eredivisie4-0

Sparta Rotterdam – AjaxAugust 21, 2022 · Eredivisie0-1

Ajax – Sparta RotterdamApril 9, 2022 · Eredivisie2-1

Sparta Rotterdam – AjaxNovember 28, 2021 · Eredivisie0-1

Ajax – Sparta RotterdamFebruary 21, 2021 · Eredivisie4-2

Sparta Rotterdam – AjaxSeptember 13, 2020 · Eredivisie0-1

Ajax – Sparta RotterdamJanuary 19, 2020 · Eredivisie2-1

Sparta Rotterdam – AjaxSeptember 1, 2019 · Eredivisie1-4

Sparta Rotterdam – AjaxMarch 18, 2018 · Eredivisie2-5

61'⇄Yves BissoumaOff: Jorthy Mokio

70'⇄Andrej KostićOff: Robin van Cruijsen

79'⇄Owen WijndalOff: Youri Baas

84'⇄Teo Quintero LeónOff: Marvin Young

84'⇄Casper TerhoOff: Bruno Martins Indi

88'⇄Daley BlindOff: Julian Brandt

89'Isaac Achmed Koroma Junior Babadi

90+3'Lucas Oliveira·Rosa

Statistics

41%Possession59%

0.93Expected goals1.43

11Total shots16

5Shots on target4

5Corners3

15Fouls7

3Offsides1

1Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

2Saves3

Ajax: 3+ goals in 7 of their last 10 away matches.

Sparta Rotterdam scored 1.5 and conceded 2.0 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Ajax scored 2.9 and conceded 1.0 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Sparta Rotterdam · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 6 times6/10

Ajax · last 10 away: 3+ goals 7 times7/10

Sparta Rotterdam: 10 games · Ajax: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.5Goals scored (avg)2.9

2.3Goals conceded (avg)1.1

3.8Total goals per gameleague 3.84.0

10/10Over 0.5league %999/10

9/10Over 1.5league %919/10

8/10Over 2.5league %738/10

7/10Over 3.5league %616/10

3/10Over 4.5league %324/10

7/10Both scoreleague %727/10

0/10Clean sheets3/10

3/10Failed to score1/10

Sparta Rotterdam: 10 games · Ajax: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.9Goals scored (avg)2.8

2.5Goals conceded (avg)1.3

4.4Total goals per gameleague 3.84.1

10/10Over 0.5league %9910/10

10/10Over 1.5league %9110/10

10/10Over 2.5league %738/10

8/10Over 3.5league %616/10

4/10Over 4.5league %323/10

9/10Both scoreleague %728/10

0/10Clean sheets2/10

1/10Failed to score0/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%49 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Sparta Rotterdam win 245, 268 end level and Ajax win 487. The actual result comes up 487 times in 1000.

0.93 – 1.43 The score the chances deserved (xG): Sparta Rotterdam 0.93 – 1.43 Ajax.

8.5

Man of the match: J. Brandt (Ajax), rated 8.5.

%62 Our model's pre-match chance of an Ajax win.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 15 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Sparta Rotterdam · Eredivisie

Ajax · Eredivisie

Sparta Rotterdam · All games

Ajax · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Sparta Rotterdam's ground

Last 15 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match