Ajax – Atalanta: probabilities, statistics and live score

AjaxEredivisie · #2

2-0Thursday, October 22

AtalantaSerie A · #12

Match events

AjaxAtalanta

45'Sofyan Amrabat
62'⇄A. OuazaneOff: O. Gloukh
62'⇄V. TsygankovOff: D. Klaassen
62'⇄L. SamardzicOff: C. De Ketelaere
66'⇄T. ArokodareOff: Marcos Leonardo
68'Lazar Samardžić

Chances to win

Ajax%45

Draw%25

Atalanta%30

At a glance

Over 1.5

%64Over 2.5

%65Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

Last 5 matches

AjaxW5-2L1-2D1-1D2-2W5-1

AtalantaL2-3W3-1W3-1L0-2L

Last 2 meetings

0Ajax won

1Draw

1Atalanta won

2.5
Goals per game1/2
Over 2.51/2
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Ajax · last 10 at home5/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 4 of the 5 games it led at half-time.

Atalanta · last 10 away1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Ajax · last 10 at home7.4 corners, 1.3 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners9/10Over 4.5 corners7/10Over 5.5 corners6/10

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%64Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Missed

Other scenarios

Both score%65

Ajax win%45

Under 2.5%36

Not both score%35

Atalanta win%30

Draw%25

Why?

Ajax · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 7 times7/10

Atalanta · last 10 away: 3+ goals 6 times6/10

Ajax: 3+ goals in 7 of their last 10 home matches.
Atalanta: 3+ goals in 6 of their last 10 away matches.
Ajax scored 2.5 and conceded 1.4 per game in their last 10 home matches.
Atalanta scored 1.5 and conceded 1.8 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Ajax: 10 games · Atalanta: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.6Goals scored (avg)1.3

1.4Goals conceded (avg)1.8

4.0Total goals per gameleague 2.93.1

10/10Over 0.5league %9310/10

9/10Over 1.5league %779/10

7/10Over 2.5league %535/10

7/10Over 3.5league %344/10

3/10Over 4.5league %183/10

8/10Both scoreleague %537/10

2/10Clean sheets1/10

0/10Failed to score2/10

Ajax: 10 games · Atalanta: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.5Goals scored (avg)1.7

1.3Goals conceded (avg)1.9

3.8Total goals per gameleague 2.93.6

10/10Over 0.5league %9310/10

9/10Over 1.5league %779/10

7/10Over 2.5league %537/10

5/10Over 3.5league %345/10

3/10Over 4.5league %182/10

8/10Both scoreleague %537/10

2/10Clean sheets1/10

0/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%61 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Ajax win 613, 232 end level and Atalanta win 155. The actual result comes up 613 times in 1000.

1.74 – 0.74 The score the chances deserved (xG): Ajax 1.74 – 0.74 Atalanta.

6 – 0 Shots on target: Ajax 6 – 0 Atalanta.

7.9

Man of the match: Lucas Rosa (Ajax), rated 7.9.

1 more numbers for this match in Premium

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

Last 5 matches

Last 2 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Missing players

Starting line-ups

Last 2 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Ajax · European games

Atalanta · European games

Ajax · All games

Atalanta · All games

Statistics

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match