HNK Hajduk Split – Ajax: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·UEFA Europa Conference League · League phase · Matchday 1

HNK Hajduk SplitHNL · #1

2-1Thursday, October 15

AjaxEredivisie · #2

Match events

HNK Hajduk SplitAjax

37'⚽A. SanyangAssist: M. Soticek
45'A. del Moral
53'⚽D. KlaassenAssist: T. Kehrer
55'⚽M. SoticekAssist: M. Sego
60'M. Sego
69'⇄L. DendonckerOff: A. del Moral
76'

Chances to win

HNK Hajduk Split%22

Draw%23

Ajax%56

At a glance

Over 1.5

%62Over 2.5

%61Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%62Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%61

Ajax win%56

Not both score%39

Under 2.5%38

Draw%23

HNK Hajduk Split win%22

Why?

HNK Hajduk Split: 3+ goals in 6 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

HNK Hajduk SplitW2-1L0-3W1-0W2-0W4-0

AjaxD1-1D2-2W5-1W5-1L1-3

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

HNK Hajduk Split · last 10 at home6/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 5 of the 5 games it led at half-time.

Ajax · last 10 away7/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).6/10games led at half-time.Won 5 of the 6 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

HNK Hajduk Split · last 9 at home5.3 corners, 2.2 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/9Over 4.5 corners6/9Over 5.5 corners6/9Over 0.5 cards

Ajax · last 10 away6.7 corners, 2.3 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners8/10Over 4.5 corners7/10Over 5.5 corners6/10Over 0.5 cards8/10Over 1.5 cards8/10

Marc-André Ter Stegen

Bench

Maarten Paes, Aymean el Hani, Lucas Rosa, Owen Wijndal, Dies Janse, Oscar Gloukh, Jorthy Mokio, Mohamed Abdalla, Oliver Valaker Edvardsen, Marcos Leonardo, Rayane Bounida

L. RosaOff: V. Tsygankov

76'⇄J. MokioOff: D. Klaassen

76'⇄O. GloukhOff: A. Ouazane

77'⇄Marcos LeonardoOff: J. Torrents

82'⇄A. SutaloOff: A. Sanyang

82'⇄D. MelnjakOff: S. Hrgovic

90+1'⇄C. MartinOff: M. Sego

90+1'⇄A. Van HoorenbeeckOff: K. Fayad

Statistics

45%Possession55%

1.8Expected goals0.95

13Total shots10

7Shots on target4

4Corners5

18Fouls12

5Offsides1

2Yellow cards0

3Saves5

84%Pass accuracy86%

Ajax: 3+ goals in 6 of their last 10 away matches.

HNK Hajduk Split scored 2.7 and conceded 0.8 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Ajax scored 2.7 and conceded 0.7 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

HNK Hajduk Split · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 6 times6/10

Ajax · last 10 away: 3+ goals 6 times6/10

HNK Hajduk Split: 10 games · Ajax: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.2Goals scored (avg)2.9

0.6Goals conceded (avg)1.1

2.8Total goals per gameleague 2.94.0

10/10Over 0.5league %939/10

8/10Over 1.5league %779/10

6/10Over 2.5league %538/10

4/10Over 3.5league %346/10

0/10Over 4.5league %184/10

4/10Both scoreleague %537/10

6/10Clean sheets3/10

0/10Failed to score1/10

HNK Hajduk Split: 10 games · Ajax: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.7Goals scored (avg)2.8

0.7Goals conceded (avg)1.3

2.4Total goals per gameleague 2.94.1

10/10Over 0.5league %9310/10

7/10Over 1.5league %7710/10

5/10Over 2.5league %538/10

2/10Over 3.5league %346/10

0/10Over 4.5league %183/10

3/10Both scoreleague %538/10

6/10Clean sheets2/10

1/10Failed to score0/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%22 Our model's pre-match chance of a HNK Hajduk Split win.

%57 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), HNK Hajduk Split win 574, 230 end level and Ajax win 196. The actual result comes up 574 times in 1000.

1.80 – 0.95 The score the chances deserved (xG): HNK Hajduk Split 1.80 – 0.95 Ajax.

8.5

Man of the match: Abdoulie Sanyang Bamba (HNK Hajduk Split), rated 8.5.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

HNK Hajduk Split · UEFA Europa Conference League

Ajax · UEFA Europa Conference League

HNK Hajduk Split · All games

Ajax · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match