Ajax – NEC Nijmegen: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Eredivisie · Netherlands · Matchday 8

AjaxEredivisie · #2

1-1Saturday, October 10

NEC NijmegenEredivisie · #12

Match events

AjaxNEC Nijmegen

7'⚽Tolu ArokodareAssist: Jorthy Mokio
17'Jorthy Mokio
19'⚽Tjaronn CheryPenalty
33'Bryan Linssen
54'Gabriel·Bras
60'⇄Simon AdingraOff: Viktor Tsygankov
60'

Chances to win

Ajax%67

Draw%17

NEC Nijmegen%15

At a glance

Over 1.5

%75Over 2.5

%66Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%75Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 8.Missed

Other scenarios

Ajax win%67

Both score%66

Not both score%34

Under 2.5%25

Draw%17

NEC Nijmegen win%15

Why?

Ajax: 3+ goals in 8 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

AjaxD2-2W5-1W5-1L1-3W4-0

NEC NijmegenD1-1L0-5L0-3D2-2L1-3

Last 8 meetings

3Ajax won

4Draw

1NEC Nijmegen won

2.8
Goals per game5/8
Over 2.56/8
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Ajax · last 10 at home5/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 4 of the 5 games it led at half-time.

NEC Nijmegen · last 10 away3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).6/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Ajax · last 10 at home7.4 corners, 1.3 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners9/10Over 4.5 corners7/10Over 5.5 corners6/10

NEC Nijmegen · last 10 away4.7 corners, 1.8 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners4/10Over 0.5 cards8/10Over 1.5 cards5/10

This season 6 games · 0 goals · 0 assists · Knee Injury

D. Fonville

This season 12 games · 0 goals · 0 assists · Ankle Injury

Starting line-ups

Ajax · 4-3-3

1M. ter Stegen

2Lucas Rosa

5O. Wijndal

6T. Kehrer

15Y. Baas

4S. Amrabat

8J. Brandt

24J. Mokio

10O. Gloukh

11V. Tsygankov

99T. Arokodare

Bench

M. Paes, C. Setford, Jofre Torrents, A. Bouwman, D. Janse, D. Klaassen, Y. Bissouma, A. Ouazane, S. Adingra, O. Edvardsen, Marcos Leonardo, Rayane Bounida

NEC Nijmegen · 3-4-2-1

1G. Crettaz

4P. Schuurs

21T. Storm

24Deveron Fonville

73Gabriel Brás

6D. Nejašmić

9T. Chery

10D. Tadić

20N. Lebreton

34Kevin Kers

30B. Linssen

Bench

N. Polster, Freek Entius, M. Bakker, A. Kaplan, Y. Moslih, Almugera Raouf Mohammed Kabar, I. Hansen-Aarøen, W. Willumsson, Jamiro Monteiro, Adam Tahaui, Clement Bischoff

Ajax – NEC NijmegenFebruary 18, 2024 · Eredivisie2-2

NEC Nijmegen – AjaxDecember 3, 2023 · Eredivisie1-2

Ajax – NEC NijmegenMarch 5, 2023 · Eredivisie1-0

NEC Nijmegen – AjaxJanuary 8, 2023 · Eredivisie1-1

Abdellah OuazaneOff: Oscar Gloukh

72'⇄Ahmetcan KaplanOff: Perr Schuurs

73'⇄Aaron BouwmanOff: Lucas Oliveira·Rosa

73'⇄Marcos Leonardo Santos AlmeidaOff: Tolu Arokodare

73'⇄Mitchel BakkerOff: Bryan Linssen

80'⇄Davy KlaassenOff: Owen Wijndal

82'⇄Jamiro MonteiroOff: Kevin Kers

82'⇄Willum Thor WillumssonOff: Tjaronn Chery

Statistics

61%Possession39%

1.86Expected goals1.11

18Total shots8

5Shots on target2

4Corners4

8Fouls13

1Offsides5

2Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

1Saves4

NEC Nijmegen: 3+ goals in 7 of their last 10 away matches.

Ajax scored 2.5 and conceded 1.5 per game in their last 10 home matches.

NEC Nijmegen scored 1.2 and conceded 2.1 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Ajax · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 8 times8/10

NEC Nijmegen · last 10 away: 3+ goals 7 times7/10

Ajax: 10 games · NEC Nijmegen: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.5Goals scored (avg)1.4

1.4Goals conceded (avg)1.9

3.9Total goals per gameleague 3.83.3

9/10Over 0.5league %999/10

9/10Over 1.5league %919/10

7/10Over 2.5league %737/10

7/10Over 3.5league %614/10

3/10Over 4.5league %323/10

8/10Both scoreleague %726/10

2/10Clean sheets1/10

1/10Failed to score4/10

Ajax: 10 games · NEC Nijmegen: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.8Goals scored (avg)1.4

1.3Goals conceded (avg)2.2

4.1Total goals per gameleague 3.83.6

10/10Over 0.5league %9910/10

10/10Over 1.5league %9110/10

8/10Over 2.5league %737/10

6/10Over 3.5league %616/10

3/10Over 4.5league %322/10

8/10Both scoreleague %728/10

2/10Clean sheets0/10

0/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%23 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Ajax win 549, 226 end level and NEC Nijmegen win 225. The actual result comes up 226 times in 1000.

%17 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.

1.86 – 1.11 The score the chances deserved (xG): Ajax 1.86 – 1.11 NEC Nijmegen.

18 – 8 Shots: Ajax 18 – 8 NEC Nijmegen.

1 more numbers for this match in Premium

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 8 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Ajax · Eredivisie

NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie

Ajax · All games

NEC Nijmegen · All games

Missing players

This fixture at Ajax's ground

Last 8 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Starting line-ups

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match