Groningen – Ajax: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Eredivisie · Netherlands · Matchday 9

GroningenEredivisie · #8

2-5Sunday, October 18

AjaxEredivisie · #2

Match events

GroningenAjax

10'✕Davy KlaassenMissed penalty
16'VARBrynjólfur Darri WillumssonPenalty cancelled
27'⚽Julian Brandt
37'⚽Aaron Bouwman
40'Thom Van Bergen
45+2'Dies Janse
49'

Chances to win

Groningen%28

Draw%23

Ajax%49

At a glance

Over 1.5

%68Over 2.5

%67Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%68Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 7.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%67

Ajax win%49

Not both score%33

Under 2.5%32

Groningen win%28

Draw%23

Why?

Groningen: 3+ goals in 9 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

GroningenW5-1W3-0D1-1D2-2L2-3

AjaxL1-2D1-1D2-2W5-1W5-1

Last 7 meetings

1Groningen won

1Draw

5Ajax won

4.0
Goals per game5/7
Over 2.55/7
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Groningen · last 10 at home3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 4 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Ajax · last 10 away7/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).6/10games led at half-time.Won 5 of the 6 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Groningen · last 10 at home5.3 corners, 0.8 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners8/10Over 4.5 corners8/10Over 5.5 corners4/10

Ajax · last 10 away7.1 corners, 2.0 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners9/10Over 4.5 corners8/10Over 5.5 corners6/10Over 0.5 cards7/10Over 1.5 cards7/10

Bench

L. Štubljar, P. Boevink, Wouter Prins, M. Csinger, J. Mosselaar, T. Hernes, A. Nordin, T. Land, Besnik Mashuku, O. Zawada, Nils Eggens, R. Metu

Ajax · 4-3-3

1M. ter Stegen

2Lucas Rosa

5O. Wijndal

30A. Bouwman

36D. Janse

4S. Amrabat

18D. Klaassen

24J. Mokio

8J. Brandt

10O. Gloukh

38Marcos Leonardo

Bench

M. Paes, C. Setford, T. Kehrer, Y. Baas, Jofre Torrents, Y. Bissouma, Mohamed Abdalla, A. Ouazane, V. Tsygankov, Rayane Bounida, T. Arokodare

Ajax – GroningenOctober 6, 2024 · Eredivisie3-1

Groningen – AjaxMay 16, 2023 · Eredivisie2-3

Ajax – GroningenAugust 14, 2022 · Eredivisie6-1

Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson

56'VARDavy KlaassenGoal cancelled

60'⚽Julian BrandtAssist: Owen Wijndal

67'⇄Mark CsingerOff: Jacob Ondrejka

74'⇄Abdellah OuazaneOff: Julian Brandt

74'⇄Tolu ArokodareOff: Marcos Leonardo Santos Almeida

75'⚽Jorthy MokioAssist: Davy Klaassen

82'⇄Rayane BounidaOff: Oscar Gloukh

82'⇄Yves BissoumaOff: Davy Klaassen

82'⇄Nils EggensOff: Tika de Jonge

82'⇄Ryan MetuOff: David van der Werff

83'⇄Tygo LandOff: Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson

83'⇄Wouter PrinsOff: Marco Rente

83'⚽Thom Van Bergen

90'Lucas Oliveira·Rosa

90+1'✕Thom Van BergenMissed penalty

Statistics

57%Possession43%

2.29Expected goals3.04

16Total shots15

5Shots on target11

7Corners4

12Fouls17

1Offsides4

1Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

4Saves3

Ajax: 3+ goals in 7 of their last 10 away matches.

Groningen scored 2.0 and conceded 1.3 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Ajax scored 2.7 and conceded 0.8 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Groningen · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 9 times9/10

Ajax · last 10 away: 3+ goals 7 times7/10

Groningen: 10 games · Ajax: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.8Goals scored (avg)2.9

1.7Goals conceded (avg)1.1

3.5Total goals per gameleague 3.84.0

9/10Over 0.5league %999/10

9/10Over 1.5league %919/10

8/10Over 2.5league %738/10

4/10Over 3.5league %616/10

3/10Over 4.5league %324/10

6/10Both scoreleague %727/10

3/10Clean sheets3/10

2/10Failed to score1/10

Groningen: 10 games · Ajax: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.2Goals scored (avg)2.8

2.2Goals conceded (avg)1.3

4.4Total goals per gameleague 3.84.1

10/10Over 0.5league %9910/10

10/10Over 1.5league %9110/10

8/10Over 2.5league %738/10

7/10Over 3.5league %616/10

5/10Over 4.5league %323/10

8/10Both scoreleague %728/10

1/10Clean sheets2/10

1/10Failed to score0/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

2.29 – 3.04 The score the chances deserved (xG): Groningen 2.29 – 3.04 Ajax.

%54 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Groningen win 291, 169 end level and Ajax win 540. The actual result comes up 540 times in 1000.

5 – 11 Shots on target: Groningen 5 – 11 Ajax.

8.9

Man of the match: J. Mokio (Ajax), rated 8.9.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 7 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Groningen · Eredivisie

Ajax · Eredivisie

Groningen · All games

Ajax · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Groningen's ground

Last 7 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match