AC Milan – Atalanta: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Serie A · Italy · Matchday 7

AC MilanSerie A · #4

3-2Sunday, October 18

AtalantaSerie A · #12

Match events

AC MilanAtalanta

13'VARChristian PulišićGoal cancelled
20'⇄R. ObricOff: S. Kolasinac
22'VARYunus MusahPenalty confirmed
24'⚽G. RamosPenalty
41'Adrien Rabiot
43'⚽A. RabiotAssist: D. Moreira

Chances to win

AC Milan%54

Draw%24

Atalanta%21

At a glance

Over 1.5

%57Over 2.5

%58Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%57Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%58

AC Milan win%54

Under 2.5%43

Not both score%42

Draw%24

Atalanta win%21

Why?

AC Milan: 3+ goals in 5 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

AC MilanW4-0D1-1W3-0L0-2D2-2

AtalantaW3-1W3-1L0-2L1-2L1-2

Last 9 meetings

1AC Milan won

3Draw

5Atalanta won

2.8
Goals per game4/9
Over 2.57/9
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

AC Milan · last 10 at home2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Atalanta · last 10 away1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

AC Milan · last 10 at home3.6 corners, 1.7 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/10Over 4.5 corners3/10Over 5.5 corners

Atalanta · last 10 away4.0 corners, 1.5 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/10Over 4.5 corners5/10Over 5.5 corners3/10Over 0.5 cards7/10Over 1.5 cards7/10

Bench

L. P. Bouyer, L. Torriani, P. Estupiñán, S. Bocoum, F. Tomori, D. Bartesaghi, V. Vladimirov, R. Loftus-Cheek, C. Comotto, A. Jashari, F. Terracciano, O. Hutchinson, A. Cissè, F. Camarda

Atalanta

29M. Carnesecchi

23S. Kolašinac

31T. Kristensen

8Mario Pasalic

10L. Samardžić

13Éderson

16R. Bellanova

17C. De Ketelaere

47L. Bernasconi

11J. Rowe

90N. Krstović

Bench

M. Sonzogni, M. Sportiello, R. ObriÄ, J. Idele, M. Plaia, D. Zappacosta, D. K. Pounga, N. Zalewski, G. Gaetano, G. Scamacca

AC Milan – AtalantaFebruary 25, 2024 · Serie A1-1

AC Milan – AtalantaJanuary 10, 2024 · Coppa Italia1-2

Atalanta – AC MilanDecember 9, 2023 · Serie A3-2

AC Milan – AtalantaFebruary 26, 2023 · Serie A2-0

Atalanta – AC MilanAugust 21, 2022 · Serie A1-1

O. HutchinsonOff: S. Chukwueze

55'VARAdrien RabiotPenalty confirmed

57'✕Gonçalo RamosMissed penalty

58'⚽M. GilaAssist: A. Rabiot

59'⇄G. GaetanoOff: M. Pasalic

59'⇄N. ZalewskiOff: J. Rowe

66'⚽G. GaetanoAssist: N. Zalewski

75'⇄P. EstupinanOff: Y. Musah

75'⇄R. Loftus-CheekOff: L. Modric

75'⇄A. JashariOff: C. Pulisic

75'⇄D. ZappacostaOff: L. Bernasconi

75'⇄G. ScamaccaOff: L. Samardzic

81'⚽N. KrstovicAssist: R. Bellanova

84'⇄F. TomoriOff: M. Gila

Statistics

56%Possession44%

2.58Expected goals1.74

11Total shots12

6Shots on target4

2Corners2

3Fouls10

1Offsides1

1Yellow cards2

2Saves3

91%Pass accuracy92%

Atalanta: 3+ goals in 5 of their last 10 away matches.

AC Milan scored 1.2 and conceded 1.3 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Atalanta scored 1.4 and conceded 1.6 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

AC Milan · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 5 times5/10

Atalanta · last 10 away: 3+ goals 5 times5/10

AC Milan: 10 games · Atalanta: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.6Goals scored (avg)1.3

1.7Goals conceded (avg)1.8

3.3Total goals per gameleague 3.23.1

9/10Over 0.5league %9810/10

9/10Over 1.5league %869/10

7/10Over 2.5league %615/10

4/10Over 3.5league %364/10

3/10Over 4.5league %223/10

5/10Both scoreleague %597/10

3/10Clean sheets1/10

3/10Failed to score2/10

AC Milan: 10 games · Atalanta: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.0Goals scored (avg)1.7

1.5Goals conceded (avg)1.9

3.5Total goals per gameleague 3.23.6

10/10Over 0.5league %9810/10

10/10Over 1.5league %869/10

7/10Over 2.5league %617/10

5/10Over 3.5league %365/10

2/10Over 4.5league %222/10

5/10Both scoreleague %597/10

3/10Clean sheets1/10

2/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%56 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), AC Milan win 557, 187 end level and Atalanta win 256. The actual result comes up 557 times in 1000.

2.53 – 1.71 The score the chances deserved (xG): AC Milan 2.53 – 1.71 Atalanta.

9.0

Man of the match: A. Rabiot (AC Milan), rated 9.0.

%54 Our model's pre-match chance of a AC Milan win.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 9 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

AC Milan · Serie A

Atalanta · Serie A

AC Milan · All games

Atalanta · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at AC Milan's ground

Last 9 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match