Sparta Rotterdam – Willem II: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Eredivisie · Netherlands · Matchday 9

Sparta RotterdamEredivisie · #14

3-2Saturday, October 17

Willem IIEredivisie · #18

Match events

Sparta RotterdamWillem II

17'⚽Tonny Vilhena
39'⚽Jens Toornstra
41'Finn Stam
50'⚽Lushendry Martes
57'⚽Milan ZonneveldAssist: Jens Toornstra
59'Rogier Meijer
66'⇄Thomas Verheydt

Chances to win

Sparta Rotterdam%59

Draw%22

Willem II%19

At a glance

Over 1.5

%63Over 2.5

%60Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%63Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%60

Sparta Rotterdam win%59

Not both score%40

Under 2.5%37

Draw%22

Willem II win%19

Why?

Sparta Rotterdam: 3+ goals in 5 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

Sparta RotterdamD3-3L0-4L1-4D2-2L1-2

Willem IIL1-3L0-1L1-5D1-1L0-3

Last 3 meetings

3Sparta Rotterdam won

0Draw

0Willem II won

4.3
Goals per game3/3
Over 2.52/3
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Sparta Rotterdam · last 10 at home1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Willem II · last 10 away1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 5 of the 5 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Sparta Rotterdam · last 10 at home5.8 corners, 1.9 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners7/10Over 5.5 corners

Willem II · last 7 away3.7 corners, 0.7 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners2/7Over 4.5 corners2/7Over 5.5 corners2/7Over 0.5 cards4/7Over 1.5 cards1/7

Bench

F. Bednarek, B. Reith, Teo Quintero, G. Vianello, J. Baas, A. Roaldsøy, M. van Bergen

Willem II · 4-2-3-1

26M. Delanghe

3F. Stam

5H. ter Avest

23M. Dekker

24N. Tjoe-A-On

7J. Slory

18Anass Zarrouk

19Uriel van Aalst

32V. van Crooij

52T. Vilhena

9D. Haen

Bench

K. de Leeuw, A. Ciranni, Jens Mathijsen, A. Et-Taïbi, K. Boogaard, J. Schuurman, Per van Loon, O. Martin, T. Verheydt

66'⇄Mats LemmensOff: Tonny Vilhena

68'⚽Uriël van AalstAssist: Vito van Crooy

74'⇄Alwande Benedict RoaldsøyOff: Jens Toornstra

78'Alwande Benedict Roaldsøy

81'⇄Jari SchuurmanOff: Uriël van Aalst

81'⇄Chido ObiOff: Jaden Slory

83'⇄Teo Quintero LeónOff: Cedric Hatenboer

83'⇄Mitchell Van BergenOff: Robin van Cruijsen

88'⇄Eser GürbüzOff: Maxim Dekker

Statistics

49%Possession51%

3.46Expected goals1.24

22Total shots13

8Shots on target4

3Corners4

12Fouls12

4Yellow cards4

0Red cards0

2Saves5

Willem II: 3+ goals in 6 of their last 10 away matches.

Sparta Rotterdam scored 1.3 and conceded 1.9 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Willem II scored 1.6 and conceded 1.5 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Sparta Rotterdam · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 5 times5/10

Willem II · last 10 away: 3+ goals 6 times6/10

Sparta Rotterdam: 10 games · Willem II: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.5Goals scored (avg)1.6

2.3Goals conceded (avg)2.1

3.8Total goals per gameleague 3.83.7

10/10Over 0.5league %9910/10

9/10Over 1.5league %918/10

8/10Over 2.5league %737/10

7/10Over 3.5league %615/10

3/10Over 4.5league %324/10

7/10Both scoreleague %728/10

0/10Clean sheets2/10

3/10Failed to score0/10

Sparta Rotterdam: 10 games · Willem II: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.9Goals scored (avg)1.3

2.5Goals conceded (avg)3.1

4.4Total goals per gameleague 3.84.4

10/10Over 0.5league %9910/10

10/10Over 1.5league %919/10

10/10Over 2.5league %738/10

8/10Over 3.5league %617/10

4/10Over 4.5league %325/10

9/10Both scoreleague %728/10

0/10Clean sheets0/10

1/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

Sparta Rotterdam: a 6-match wait for a win is over.

%79 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Sparta Rotterdam win 788, 116 end level and Willem II win 96. The actual result comes up 788 times in 1000.

3.46 – 1.24 The score the chances deserved (xG): Sparta Rotterdam 3.46 – 1.24 Willem II.

8.1

Man of the match: J. Toornstra (Sparta Rotterdam), rated 8.1.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 3 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Sparta Rotterdam · Eredivisie

Willem II · Eredivisie

Sparta Rotterdam · All games

Willem II · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

Last 3 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match