Utrecht – Willem II: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Eredivisie · Netherlands · Matchday 8

UtrechtEredivisie · #11

3-1Sunday, October 11

Willem IIEredivisie · #18

Match events

UtrechtWillem II

45'Yoann Cathline
53'⚽Yoann CathlineAssist: Dani De Wit
60'⚽Jaden SloryAssist: Vito van Crooy
68'⇄Per KloosterboerOff: Arthur Zagre
68'⇄Ángel AlarcónOff: Niklas Vesterlund
72'⇄Eser GürbüzOff: Jaden Slory

Chances to win

Utrecht%63

Draw%21

Willem II%16

At a glance

Over 1.5

%64Over 2.5

%59Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%64Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Utrecht win%63

Both score%59

Not both score%41

Under 2.5%36

Draw%21

Willem II win%16

Why?

Utrecht: 3+ goals in 5 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

UtrechtL0-5W2-1D3-3L1-6D3-3

Willem IIL0-1L1-5D1-1L0-3D2-2

Last 2 meetings

2Utrecht won

0Draw

0Willem II won

5.0
Goals per game2/2
Over 2.52/2
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Utrecht · last 10 at home5/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 4 of the 5 games it led at half-time.

Willem II · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).6/10games led at half-time.Won 6 of the 6 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Utrecht · last 10 at home4.9 corners, 1.7 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners

Willem II · last 7 away4.3 corners, 0.7 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners3/7Over 4.5 corners3/7Over 5.5 corners3/7Over 0.5 cards4/7Over 1.5 cards1/7

Bench

S. Padt, K. Gadellaa, G. Offerhaus, J. Medić, N. Ogidi Nwankwo, P. Kloosterboer, D. van den Berg, Ángel Alarcón, A. Blake, S. van Duijn, N. Amrabat

Willem II · 4-4-2

26M. Delanghe

3F. Stam

5H. ter Avest

23M. Dekker

24N. Tjoe-A-On

6C. Twigt

7J. Slory

32V. van Crooij

52T. Vilhena

9D. Haen

19Uriel van Aalst

Bench

W. van der Steen, K. de Leeuw, A. Ciranni, Jens Mathijsen, A. Et-Taïbi, M. Lemmens, J. Schuurman, Anass Zarrouk, Per van Loon, O. Martin, T. Verheydt, E. Gürbüz

Anass ZarroukOff: Tonny Vilhena

75'⚽Yoann CathlineAssist: Oualid Agougil

80'Nikolas Panagiotou

81'⇄Thomas VerheydtOff: Vito van Crooy

81'⇄Alessandro CiranniOff: Nathan Tjoe-A-On

82'⇄Adrian BlakeOff: Marius Broholm

82'⇄Davy Van Den BergOff: Oualid Agougil

87'⇄Chido ObiOff: Uriël van Aalst

90+2'⚽Ángel AlarcónAssist: Adrian Blake

90+3'⇄S. van DuijnOff: Yoann Cathline

Statistics

58%Possession42%

1.38Expected goals0.66

24Total shots9

6Shots on target2

7Corners3

15Fouls13

0Offsides2

2Yellow cards0

0Red cards0

1Saves3

Willem II: 3+ goals in 6 of their last 10 away matches.

Utrecht scored 2.1 and conceded 1.7 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Willem II scored 1.8 and conceded 1.3 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Utrecht · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 5 times5/10

Willem II · last 10 away: 3+ goals 6 times6/10

Utrecht: 10 games · Willem II: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.2Goals scored (avg)1.4

1.8Goals conceded (avg)2.7

4.0Total goals per gameleague 3.84.1

10/10Over 0.5league %9910/10

10/10Over 1.5league %918/10

6/10Over 2.5league %737/10

6/10Over 3.5league %616/10

5/10Over 4.5league %325/10

7/10Both scoreleague %727/10

3/10Clean sheets2/10

0/10Failed to score1/10

Utrecht: 10 games · Willem II: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.7Goals scored (avg)1.2

2.5Goals conceded (avg)3.4

4.2Total goals per gameleague 3.84.6

10/10Over 0.5league %9910/10

9/10Over 1.5league %919/10

8/10Over 2.5league %738/10

6/10Over 3.5league %617/10

5/10Over 4.5league %325/10

8/10Both scoreleague %727/10

1/10Clean sheets0/10

1/10Failed to score3/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%54 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Utrecht win 543, 278 end level and Willem II win 178. The actual result comes up 543 times in 1000.

1.38 – 0.66 The score the chances deserved (xG): Utrecht 1.38 – 0.66 Willem II.

24 – 9 Shots: Utrecht 24 – 9 Willem II.

9.2

Man of the match: Y. Cathline (Utrecht), rated 9.2.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 2 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Utrecht · Eredivisie

Willem II · Eredivisie

Utrecht · All games

Willem II · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

Last 2 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match