Como – Manchester United: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·UEFA Champions League · League phase · Matchday 3

ComoSerie A · #4

4-1Wednesday, October 21

Manchester UnitedPremier League · #16

Match events

ComoManchester United

2'⚽Nico PazAssist: Lucas Da Cunha
25'Andrey Santos
45'⇄Amad DialloOff: Matheus Cunha
45'⇄Carlos BalebaOff: Andrey Santos
49'⚽Anastasios DouvikasAssist: Nico Paz
50'Carlos Baleba

Chances to win

Como%39

Draw%25

Manchester United%35

At a glance

Over 1.5

%62Over 2.5

%65Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%62Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%65

Como win%39

Under 2.5%38

Manchester United win%35

Not both score%35

Draw%25

Why?

Como: 3+ goals in 6 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

ComoW3-1L2-3D0-0L0-2W2-1

Manchester UnitedD1-1L0-2D1-1D1-1L2-3

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Como · last 10 at home3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 4 of the 5 games it led at half-time.

Manchester United · last 10 away1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Como · last 10 at home6.2 corners, 1.3 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners7/10Over 5.5 corners6/10

Manchester United · last 10 away5.2 corners, 2.1 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/10Over 4.5 corners4/10Over 5.5 corners4/10Over 0.5 cards9/10Over 1.5 cards7/10

No games this season · Knee Injury

B. Sesko

This season 6 games · 2 goals · 0 assists · Leg Injury

K. Mainoo

This season 9 games · 0 goals · 1 assists · Injury

L. Yoro

This season 9 games · 0 goals · 0 assists · Red Card

P. Dorgu

This season 6 games · 0 goals · 2 assists · Hamstring Injury

A. Heaven

This season 6 games · 0 goals · 0 assists · Illness

Starting line-ups

Como · 4-2-3-1

1J. Butez

2M. Kempf

3Álex Valle

4Jacobo Ramón Naveros

27Yan Couto

5M. Perrone

6Luis Milla

7L. da Cunha

10N. Paz

20M. Baturina

9T. Douvikas

Bench

Robert Sánchez, A. Dossena, Kaiki, I. Smolčić, M. Caqueret, S. Ricci, M. Liberali

Manchester United · 4-2-3-1

1S. Lammens

2Diogo Dalot

3N. Mazraoui

4M. de Ligt

5H. Maguire

7M. Mount

8Bruno Fernandes

10Matheus Cunha

17Andrey Santos

18Y. Tielemans

19B. Mbeumo

Bench

K. Darlow, T. Heaton, H. Amass, J. Kamason, Daniel Armer, C. Baleba, J. Fletcher, T. Fletcher, J. Zirkzee, A. Diallo, T. Thompson, S. Lacey

64'⇄Maxence CaqueretOff: Martin Baturina

67'⇄Joshua ZirkzeeOff: Bruno Fernandes

69'⇄Kaiki BrunoOff: Lucas Da Cunha

76'⚽Jacobo RamónAssist: Kaiki Bruno

79'⇄Harry AmassOff: Matthijs De Ligt

80'⇄Alberto DossenaOff: Maximo Perrone

80'⇄Samuele RicciOff: Nico Paz

80'⇄Ivan SmolcicOff: Yan Couto

84'Marc-Oliver Kempf

86'⇄Shea LaceyOff: Bryan Mbeumo

90+1'⚽Joshua ZirkzeeAssist: Amad Diallo

Statistics

55%Possession45%

2.19Expected goals1.05

11Total shots13

8Shots on target4

1Corners4

10Fouls11

2Offsides1

1Yellow cards3

0Red cards0

3Saves4

Manchester United: 3+ goals in 4 of their last 10 away matches.

Como scored 2.0 and conceded 0.8 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Manchester United scored 1.1 and conceded 1.2 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Como · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 6 times6/10

Como: 10 games · Manchester United: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.3Goals scored (avg)1.1

0.8Goals conceded (avg)1.4

3.1Total goals per gameleague 3.32.5

8/10Over 0.5league %979/10

7/10Over 1.5league %838/10

6/10Over 2.5league %604/10

4/10Over 3.5league %423/10

4/10Over 4.5league %261/10

5/10Both scoreleague %575/10

5/10Clean sheets3/10

2/10Failed to score3/10

Como: 10 games · Manchester United: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.4Goals scored (avg)1.2

1.1Goals conceded (avg)1.8

3.5Total goals per gameleague 3.33.0

9/10Over 0.5league %9710/10

9/10Over 1.5league %839/10

7/10Over 2.5league %605/10

6/10Over 3.5league %424/10

4/10Over 4.5league %262/10

7/10Both scoreleague %576/10

2/10Clean sheets1/10

2/10Failed to score3/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

2.12 – 1.11 The score the chances deserved (xG): Como 2.12 – 1.11 Manchester United.

%61 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Como win 605, 204 end level and Manchester United win 191. The actual result comes up 605 times in 1000.

9.2

Man of the match: N. Paz (Como), rated 9.2.

%39 Our model's pre-match chance of a Como win.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Como · European games

Manchester United · European games

Como · All games

Manchester United · All games

Missing players

Previous meetings

Model chances

Starting line-ups

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match