Manchester United – Tottenham: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Premier League · England · Matchday 6

Manchester UnitedPremier League · #16

1-1Saturday, October 10

TottenhamPremier League · #14

Match events

Manchester UnitedTottenham

4'Conor Gallagher
59'⇄Diogo DalotOff: Leny Yoro
59'⇄Joshua ZirkzeeOff: Amad Diallo
59'⇄Carlos BalebaOff: Youri Tielemans
66'⇄Rodrigo BentancurOff: Lucas Bergvall
66'⇄Omar MarmoushOff: Mohammed Kudus

Chances to win

Manchester United%56

Draw%23

Tottenham%21

At a glance

Over 1.5

%63Over 2.5

%61Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%63Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Missed

Other scenarios

Both score%61

Manchester United win%56

Not both score%39

Under 2.5%37

Draw%23

Tottenham win%21

Why?

Manchester United: 3+ goals in 9 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

Manchester UnitedD1-1L2-3L0-1W4-0D2-2

TottenhamL2-3L1-3D0-0D0-0L0-2

Last 10 meetings

2Manchester United won

3Draw

5Tottenham won

3.0
Goals per game5/10
Over 2.54/10
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Manchester United · last 10 at home3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 4 of the 5 games it led at half-time.

Tottenham · last 10 away0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 1 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Manchester United · last 10 at home6.6 corners, 1.8 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners9/10Over 4.5 corners8/10Over 5.5 corners8/10Over 0.5 cards

Tottenham · last 10 away5.6 corners, 2.8 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners8/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners4/10Over 0.5 cards9/10Over 1.5 cards8/10

Manchester United · 4-2-3-1

1S. Lammens

5H. Maguire

6Lisandro Martínez

15L. Yoro

23L. Shaw

8Bruno Fernandes

16A. Diallo

18Y. Tielemans

19B. Mbeumo

37K. Mainoo

10Matheus Cunha

Bench

K. Darlow, Diogo Dalot, A. Heaven, M. Mount, Andrey Santos, C. Baleba, M. Rashford, J. Zirkzee, S. Lacey

Tottenham · 4-2-3-1

31A. Kinský

5M. Senesi

6J. van Hecke

13D. Udogie

14A. Gray

8C. Gallagher

15L. Bergvall

16S. Tonali

17Sávio

20M. Kudus

19D. Solanke

Bench

M. Dúbravka, T. Adarabioyo, B. Davies, M. van de Ven, J. Maddison, Mateus Fernandes, R. Bentancur, M. Tel, Omar Marmoush

February 16, 2025 · Premier League

Tottenham – Manchester UnitedDecember 19, 2024 · League Cup4-3

Manchester United – TottenhamSeptember 29, 2024 · Premier League0-3

Manchester United – TottenhamJanuary 14, 2024 · Premier League2-2

Tottenham – Manchester UnitedAugust 19, 2023 · Premier League2-0

Tottenham – Manchester UnitedApril 27, 2023 · Premier League2-2

Manchester United – TottenhamOctober 19, 2022 · Premier League2-0

73'⚽Bryan MbeumoAssist: Matheus Cunha

74'⇄James MaddisonOff: Conor Gallagher

74'⇄Micky van de VenOff: Destiny Udogie

78'Rodrigo Bentancur

78'Jan Paul van Hecke

87'Lisandro Martínez

89'⇄Mateus FernandesOff: Marcos Senesi

90+2'⚽Dominic SolankeAssist: Sandro Tonali

90+5'⇄Marcus RashfordOff: Matheus Cunha

90+5'⇄Ayden HeavenOff: Luke Shaw

Statistics

45%Possession55%

0.85Expected goals1.62

12Total shots12

4Shots on target3

4Corners4

13Fouls16

2Offsides2

4Yellow cards3

0Red cards1

2Saves3

Tottenham: 3+ goals in 6 of their last 10 away matches.

Manchester United scored 2.5 and conceded 1.5 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Tottenham scored 0.9 and conceded 1.8 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Manchester United · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 9 times9/10

Tottenham · last 10 away: 3+ goals 6 times6/10

Manchester United: 10 games · Tottenham: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.1Goals scored (avg)0.9

1.7Goals conceded (avg)1.2

3.8Total goals per gameleague 2.82.1

10/10Over 0.5league %939/10

9/10Over 1.5league %767/10

8/10Over 2.5league %504/10

5/10Over 3.5league %311/10

4/10Over 4.5league %180/10

7/10Both scoreleague %505/10

1/10Clean sheets3/10

2/10Failed to score3/10

Manchester United: 10 games · Tottenham: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.2Goals scored (avg)1.4

1.8Goals conceded (avg)1.4

3.0Total goals per gameleague 2.82.8

10/10Over 0.5league %938/10

9/10Over 1.5league %768/10

5/10Over 2.5league %505/10

4/10Over 3.5league %314/10

2/10Over 4.5league %182/10

6/10Both scoreleague %505/10

1/10Clean sheets3/10

3/10Failed to score4/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%25 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Manchester United win 196, 248 end level and Tottenham win 556. The actual result comes up 248 times in 1000.

%23 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.

0.85 – 1.62 The score the chances deserved (xG): Manchester United 0.85 – 1.62 Tottenham.

8.1

Man of the match: B. Mbeumo (Manchester United), rated 8.1.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 10 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Manchester United · Premier League

Tottenham · Premier League

Manchester United · All games

Tottenham · All games

Missing players

This fixture at Manchester United's ground

Last 10 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Starting line-ups

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match