Atletico Madrid – Manchester United: probabilities, statistics and live score

Atletico MadridPrimera División · #2

2-0Tuesday, October 13

Manchester UnitedPremier League · #17

Match events

Atletico MadridManchester United

1'⚽Pablo Barrios RivasAssist: Alejandro Baena Rodríguez
37'Diego Pablo Simeone
45'VARJohnny CardosoGoal cancelled
52'Marcus Rashford
60'⇄Marc PubillOff: Pablo Barrios Rivas
61'⇄Jonathan DavidOff: Lee Kang-In

Chances to win

Atletico Madrid%49

Draw%25

Manchester United%26

At a glance

Over 1.5

%58Over 2.5

%60Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

Last 5 matches

Atletico MadridW2-1W2-1W4-0W3-0L1-2

Manchester UnitedD1-1D1-1L2-3L0-1W

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Atletico Madrid · last 10 at home2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Manchester United · last 10 away1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Atletico Madrid · last 10 at home5.7 corners, 1.5 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners7/10Over 5.5 corners

Manchester United · 4-2-3-1

1S. Lammens

2Diogo Dalot

6Lisandro Martínez

15L. Yoro

26A. Heaven

8Bruno Fernandes

9M. Rashford

17Andrey Santos

18Y. Tielemans

20C. Baleba

19B. Mbeumo

Bench

K. Darlow, Dermot William Mee, M. de Ligt, H. Maguire, H. Amass, Daniel Armer, M. Mount, T. Fletcher, Matheus Cunha, J. Zirkzee, A. Diallo, S. Lacey

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%58Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Missed

Other scenarios

Both score%60

Atletico Madrid win%49

Under 2.5%42

Not both score%40

Manchester United win%26

Draw%25

Why?

Atletico Madrid · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 6 times6/10

Atletico Madrid: 3+ goals in 6 of their last 10 home matches.
Manchester United: 3+ goals in 4 of their last 10 away matches.
Atletico Madrid scored 1.8 and conceded 1.1 per game in their last 10 home matches.
Manchester United scored 1.2 and conceded 1.0 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Atletico Madrid: 10 games · Manchester United: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.8Goals scored (avg)0.9

0.7Goals conceded (avg)1.4

2.5Total goals per gameleague 3.32.3

10/10Over 0.5league %979/10

7/10Over 1.5league %838/10

4/10Over 2.5league %603/10

3/10Over 3.5league %422/10

1/10Over 4.5league %261/10

4/10Both scoreleague %574/10

5/10Clean sheets3/10

1/10Failed to score4/10

Atletico Madrid: 10 games · Manchester United: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.9Goals scored (avg)1.0

0.5Goals conceded (avg)1.8

2.4Total goals per gameleague 3.32.8

10/10Over 0.5league %9710/10

8/10Over 1.5league %839/10

5/10Over 2.5league %604/10

1/10Over 3.5league %423/10

0/10Over 4.5league %262/10

4/10Both scoreleague %575/10

6/10Clean sheets1/10

0/10Failed to score4/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

Atletico Madrid: win number 5 in a row.

%48 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Atletico Madrid win 478, 259 end level and Manchester United win 263. The actual result comes up 478 times in 1000.

1.50 – 1.04 The score the chances deserved (xG): Atletico Madrid 1.50 – 1.04 Manchester United.

8.2

Man of the match: Pablo Barrios (Atletico Madrid), rated 8.2.

1 more numbers for this match in Premium

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

Last 5 matches

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Missing players

Starting line-ups

Previous meetings

Model chances

Atletico Madrid · UEFA Champions League

Manchester United · UEFA Champions League

Atletico Madrid · All games

Manchester United · All games

Statistics

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match