Mantova – Cremonese: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Serie B · Italy · Matchday 9

MantovaSerie B · #4

0-2Tuesday, October 27

CremoneseSerie B · #15

Match events

MantovaCremonese

1'⚽Federico BonazzoliAssist: Jari Vandeputte
13'⇄Sebastiano LupertoOff: Alessandro Vogliacco
24'Simone Lottici Tessadri
45'⇄Rares IlieOff: Ettore Gliozzi
52'Stefano Cella
57'⇄Filippo VesentiniOff: Tommaso Del Lungo

Chances to win

Mantova%42

Draw%28

Cremonese%30

At a glance

Over 1.5

%49Over 2.5

%55Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Both score.

%55Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Missed

Other scenarios

Under 2.5%51

Over 2.5%49

Not both score%45

Mantova win%42

Cremonese win%30

Draw%28

Why?

Mantova: both sides scored in 4 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

MantovaW1-0L0-2W3-1D2-2W2-0

CremoneseL0-1L1-3D0-0D0-0D2-2

Last 2 meetings

1Mantova won

0Draw

1Cremonese won

3.5
Goals per game1/2
Over 2.51/2
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Mantova · last 10 at home4/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Cremonese · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Mantova · last 10 at home4.7 corners, 2.1 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners

Cremonese · last 10 away4.6 corners, 2.2 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners8/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners2/10Over 0.5 cards9/10Over 1.5 cards6/10

8Simone Lottici Tessadri

Bench

M. Festa, F. Agazzi, S. Luperto, Fellipe Jack, D. Lordkipanidze, A. Grassi, D. Stückler, M. De Luca, M. Đurić, A. Lickūnas, M. Nasti

Marco NastiOff: Giuseppe Pezzella

66'Alessio Castellini

71'⇄matteo spinacceOff: Davide Bragantini

72'⇄Vanja VlahovicOff: Francesco Ruocco

74'⇄Manuel De LucaOff: Federico Bonazzoli

74'⇄Dachi LordkipanidzeOff: Jari Vandeputte

79'⇄Lorenzo IgnacchitiOff: Rachid Kouda

80'⚽Marco NastiAssist: Dachi Lordkipanidze

90+1'Simone Trimboli

Statistics

66%Possession34%

1.97Expected goals1.32

20Total shots6

9Shots on target5

5Corners2

13Fouls14

4Offsides3

3Yellow cards2

0Red cards1

3Saves8

Cremonese: both sides scored in 3 of their last 10 away matches.

Mantova scored 1.7 and conceded 1.0 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Cremonese scored 0.9 and conceded 1.3 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Mantova: 10 games · Cremonese: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.6Goals scored (avg)1.0

1.1Goals conceded (avg)1.1

2.7Total goals per gameleague 2.72.1

10/10Over 0.5league %979/10

9/10Over 1.5league %806/10

4/10Over 2.5league %523/10

3/10Over 3.5league %243/10

1/10Over 4.5league %110/10

3/10Both scoreleague %612/10

4/10Clean sheets5/10

3/10Failed to score4/10

Mantova: 10 games · Cremonese: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.5Goals scored (avg)1.2

1.5Goals conceded (avg)1.0

3.0Total goals per gameleague 2.72.2

10/10Over 0.5league %978/10

9/10Over 1.5league %807/10

4/10Over 2.5league %524/10

4/10Over 3.5league %243/10

1/10Over 4.5league %110/10

6/10Both scoreleague %613/10

2/10Clean sheets5/10

2/10Failed to score4/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

Cremonese: a 5-match wait for a win is over.

%26 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Mantova win 526, 219 end level and Cremonese win 256. The actual result comes up 256 times in 1000.

1.97 – 1.32 The score the chances deserved (xG): Mantova 1.97 – 1.32 Cremonese.

%30 Our model's pre-match chance of an Cremonese win.

3 more numbers for this match in Premium

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 2 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Mantova · Serie B

Cremonese · Serie B

Mantova · All games

Cremonese · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

Last 2 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match