Virtus Entella – Mantova: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Serie B · Italy · Matchday 8

Virtus EntellaSerie B · #13

0-1Saturday, October 24

MantovaSerie B · #4

Match events

Virtus EntellaMantova

10'⚽Ettore GliozziAssist: Tommaso Del Lungo
12'VAREttore GliozziGoal confirmed
36'Andrea Tiritiello
42'Tommaso Del Lungo
45+3'Francesco Modesto
51'M. Alborghetti

Chances to win

Virtus Entella%41

Draw%29

Mantova%30

At a glance

Over 1.5

%48Over 2.5

%54Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Under 2.5.

%52Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 5.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%54

Over 2.5%48

Not both score%46

Virtus Entella win%41

Mantova win%30

Draw%29

Why?

Virtus Entella: 2 or fewer goals in 3 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

Virtus EntellaW2-1D1-1D0-0W4-1D2-2

MantovaL0-2W3-1D2-2W2-0D1-1

Last 2 meetings

1Virtus Entella won

0Draw

1Mantova won

1.0
Goals per game0/2
Over 2.50/2
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Virtus Entella · last 10 at home1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Mantova · last 10 away4/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).6/10games led at half-time.Won 4 of the 6 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Virtus Entella · last 10 at home5.0 corners, 2.2 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners9/10Over 4.5 corners7/10Over 5.5 corners

Mantova · last 10 away3.1 corners, 1.9 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners4/10Over 4.5 corners1/10Over 5.5 corners1/10Over 0.5 cards10/10Over 1.5 cards6/10

Bench

L. Gemello, A. Meroni, N. Radaelli, E. Košpo, J. Mboyo, D. Wieser, I. Cajazzo, F. Vesentini, R. Kouda, M. Spinaccè, D. Bragantini, V. Vlahović

58'⇄Rachid KoudaOff: Lorenzo Ignacchiti

59'⇄David·WieserOff: Tommaso Del Lungo

62'⇄Marwane KrittaOff: Luca Parodi

69'⇄M TirelliOff: Giacomo Corona

69'⇄Tommaso AnnoniOff: Niccolo Squizzato

77'⇄matteo spinacceOff: Ettore Gliozzi

77'⇄Davide BragantiniOff: Francesco Ruocco

78'⇄Luigi CupponeOff: Andrea Franzoni

78'⇄Luca VignaliOff: M. Alborghetti

90'Bodin Tomašević

90+1'Simone Trimboli

90+1'Leonardo Benedetti

Statistics

44%Possession56%

1.37Expected goals1.01

14Total shots7

4Shots on target3

5Corners1

16Fouls19

5Offsides1

5Yellow cards5

0Red cards0

2Saves5

Mantova: 2 or fewer goals in 3 of their last 10 away matches.

Virtus Entella scored 1.5 and conceded 1.3 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Mantova scored 1.8 and conceded 1.7 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Virtus Entella: 10 games · Mantova: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.3Goals scored (avg)1.7

1.1Goals conceded (avg)1.4

2.4Total goals per gameleague 2.73.1

10/10Over 0.5league %9710/10

8/10Over 1.5league %819/10

5/10Over 2.5league %505/10

1/10Over 3.5league %233/10

0/10Over 4.5league %112/10

7/10Both scoreleague %615/10

2/10Clean sheets4/10

1/10Failed to score1/10

Virtus Entella: 10 games · Mantova: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.1Goals scored (avg)1.5

1.2Goals conceded (avg)1.5

2.3Total goals per gameleague 2.73.0

9/10Over 0.5league %9710/10

7/10Over 1.5league %819/10

4/10Over 2.5league %504/10

2/10Over 3.5league %234/10

1/10Over 4.5league %111/10

6/10Both scoreleague %616/10

1/10Clean sheets2/10

4/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

Virtus Entella: a 5-match unbeaten run ended here.

%28 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Virtus Entella win 451, 272 end level and Mantova win 277. The actual result comes up 277 times in 1000.

%30 Our model's pre-match chance of an Mantova win.

15 – 7 Shots: Virtus Entella 15 – 7 Mantova.

2 more numbers for this match in Premium

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 2 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Virtus Entella · Serie B

Mantova · Serie B

Virtus Entella · All games

Mantova · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

Last 2 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match