Catanzaro – Mantova: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Serie B · Italy · Matchday 6

CatanzaroSerie B · #20

1-3Sunday, October 11

MantovaSerie B · #4

Match events

CatanzaroMantova

18'Stefano Cella
30'⚽Bodin TomaševićAssist: Rares Ilie
34'⚽Francesco RuoccoAssist: Fahem Benaissa Yahia
45'⇄Franky TchaounaOff: Nicola Mosti
45'⇄Federico Di FrancescoOff: Ruggero Frosinini
55'⚽Davide BragantiniAssist: Alessio Castellini

Chances to win

Catanzaro%42

Draw%28

Mantova%31

At a glance

Over 1.5

%54Over 2.5

%59Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Both score.

%59Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Over 2.5%54

Under 2.5%46

Catanzaro win%42

Not both score%41

Mantova win%31

Draw%28

Why?

Catanzaro: both sides scored in 6 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

CatanzaroL1-2W1-0L0-2L1-2L2-3

MantovaD2-2W2-0D1-1L2-5W3-1

Last 4 meetings

2Catanzaro won

2Draw

0Mantova won

2.5
Goals per game2/4
Over 2.52/4
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Catanzaro · last 10 at home3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Mantova · last 10 away3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 5 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Catanzaro · last 10 at home5.1 corners, 1.7 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners7/10Over 5.5 corners

Mantova · last 10 away2.7 corners, 2.2 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners3/10Over 4.5 corners0/10Over 5.5 corners0/10Over 0.5 cards10/10Over 1.5 cards6/10

Bench

L. Gemello, M. Gasparini, N. Radaelli, Cristian Marai, E. Košpo, J. Mboyo, D. Wieser, I. Cajazzo, S. Keita, S. Trimboli, E. Gliozzi

Marco D'AlessandroOff: Mehdi Dorval

64'⇄Emanuele PecorinoOff: Pietro Lemmello

66'⇄Ismael CajazzoOff: Davide Bragantini

66'⇄Jean-Pierre Longonda Itamba MboyoOff: Rares Ilie

71'⇄Ettore GliozziOff: Francesco Ruocco

72'⇄Tommaso Del LungoOff: Bodin Tomašević

78'⇄G. ArditiOff: Gabriele Alesi

83'⇄Sambaly KeitaOff: Rachid Kouda

90+1'⚽Matias Antonini LuiAssist: Emanuele Pecorino

90+3'Fahem Benaissa Yahia

90+3'Federico Di Francesco

Statistics

52%Possession48%

1.04Expected goals2.52

14Total shots17

4Shots on target8

5Corners6

8Fouls13

2Offsides0

2Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

5Saves3

Mantova: both sides scored in 6 of their last 10 away matches.

Catanzaro scored 2.1 and conceded 1.4 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Mantova scored 1.6 and conceded 1.8 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Catanzaro · last 10 at home: both scored 6 times6/10

Mantova · last 10 away: both scored 6 times6/10

Catanzaro: 10 games · Mantova: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.8Goals scored (avg)1.7

1.9Goals conceded (avg)1.4

3.7Total goals per gameleague 2.73.1

10/10Over 0.5league %9710/10

9/10Over 1.5league %809/10

7/10Over 2.5league %525/10

5/10Over 3.5league %243/10

3/10Over 4.5league %112/10

6/10Both scoreleague %615/10

3/10Clean sheets4/10

1/10Failed to score1/10

Catanzaro: 10 games · Mantova: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.1Goals scored (avg)1.5

2.2Goals conceded (avg)1.5

3.3Total goals per gameleague 2.73.0

10/10Over 0.5league %9710/10

9/10Over 1.5league %809/10

6/10Over 2.5league %524/10

4/10Over 3.5league %244/10

2/10Over 4.5league %111/10

8/10Both scoreleague %616/10

1/10Clean sheets2/10

1/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%31 Our model's pre-match chance of an Mantova win.

%70 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Catanzaro win 136, 169 end level and Mantova win 695. The actual result comes up 695 times in 1000.

1.04 – 2.52 The score the chances deserved (xG): Catanzaro 1.04 – 2.52 Mantova.

8.2

Man of the match: F. Ruocco (Mantova), rated 8.2.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 4 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Catanzaro · Serie B

Mantova · Serie B

Catanzaro · All games

Mantova · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Catanzaro's ground

Last 4 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match