Arezzo – Cremonese: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Serie B · Italy · Matchday 6

ArezzoSerie B · #14

0-0Saturday, October 10

CremoneseSerie B · #15

Match events

ArezzoCremonese

48'Alberto Cerri
55'⇄Tommaso BarbieriOff: Michele Collocolo
55'⇄Tommaso BertiOff: Marco Nasti
57'Giuseppe Pezzella
59'Giuseppe Pezzella
62'⇄Alessandro ArenaOff: Emiliano Pattarello

Chances to win

Arezzo%28

Draw%29

Cremonese%42

At a glance

Over 1.5

%45Over 2.5

%51Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Under 2.5.

%55Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%51

Not both score%49

Over 2.5%45

Cremonese win%42

Draw%29

Arezzo win%28

Why?

Arezzo: 2 or fewer goals in 5 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

ArezzoL1-4W1-0L0-5L2-3W2-1

CremoneseD0-0D2-2W3-1W2-0L0-3

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Arezzo · last 10 at home4/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 4 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Cremonese · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Arezzo · last 2 at home9.0 corners, 1.5 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners2/2Over 4.5 corners2/2Over 5.5 corners2/2Over 0.5 cards2/2Over 1.5 cards1/2

Cremonese · last 10 away4.2 corners, 1.8 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners

Over 4.5 corners5/10

Over 5.5 corners1/10

Bench

M. Festa, F. Agazzi, T. Barbieri, Fellipe Jack, A. Vogliacco, Simone Lottici Tessadri, Adin Ličina, T. Berti, M. De Luca, A. Lickūnas

Leonardo MancusoOff: Alberto Cerri

62'⇄Camillo TavernelliOff: Giuseppe Kevin Leone

68'⇄Simone Lottici TessadriOff: Jari Vandeputte

68'⇄Adin LičinaOff: Alberto Grassi

76'⇄Shaka Mawuli EkluOff: Luca Chierico

76'⇄Manuel De LucaOff: Salvatore Elia

78'⇄Pietro CianciOff: mattia sala

Statistics

62%Possession38%

1.23Expected goals0.14

20Total shots3

2Shots on target2

3Corners1

11Fouls13

2Offsides3

2Yellow cards1

0Red cards1

2Saves2

Cremonese: 2 or fewer goals in 5 of their last 10 away matches.

Arezzo scored 1.6 and conceded 1.4 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Cremonese scored 0.9 and conceded 1.5 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Arezzo · last 10 at home: 2 or fewer goals 5 times5/10

Cremonese · last 10 away: 2 or fewer goals 5 times5/10

Arezzo: 10 games · Cremonese: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.3Goals scored (avg)1.0

1.6Goals conceded (avg)1.1

2.9Total goals per gameleague 2.72.1

9/10Over 0.5league %979/10

9/10Over 1.5league %806/10

6/10Over 2.5league %523/10

3/10Over 3.5league %243/10

2/10Over 4.5league %110/10

6/10Both scoreleague %612/10

3/10Clean sheets5/10

2/10Failed to score4/10

Arezzo: 10 games · Cremonese: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

0.9Goals scored (avg)1.0

2.0Goals conceded (avg)1.1

2.9Total goals per gameleague 2.72.1

9/10Over 0.5league %978/10

7/10Over 1.5league %806/10

7/10Over 2.5league %524/10

3/10Over 3.5league %243/10

3/10Over 4.5league %110/10

5/10Both scoreleague %613/10

2/10Clean sheets4/10

4/10Failed to score5/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%30 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Arezzo win 659, 300 end level and Cremonese win 41. The actual result comes up 300 times in 1000.

%29 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.

1.23 – 0.14 The score the chances deserved (xG): Arezzo 1.23 – 0.14 Cremonese.

20 – 3 Shots: Arezzo 20 – 3 Cremonese.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Arezzo · Serie B

Cremonese · Serie B

Arezzo · All games

Cremonese · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match