Napoli – AS Roma: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Serie A · Italy · Matchday 8

NapoliSerie A · #7

3-3Saturday, October 24

AS RomaSerie A · #3

Match events

NapoliAS Roma

4'Rafael Marin Zamora
28'⚽Frank Anguissa
30'Bryan Cristante
45'Devyne Rensch
48'⚽Scott McTominayAssist: Matteo Politano
52'⇄Sam BeukemaOff: Benoît Badiashile
58'

Chances to win

Napoli%35

Draw%28

AS Roma%36

At a glance

Over 1.5

%51Over 2.5

%57Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

Last 5 matches

NapoliW4-3L0-1L1-3W3-0D1-1

AS RomaW4-0W2-0L3-4D0-0D

Last 15 meetings

8Napoli won

5Draw

2AS Roma won

2.5
Goals per game7/15
Over 2.58/15
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Napoli · last 10 at home2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 4 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

AS Roma · last 10 away4/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).6/10games led at half-time.Won 4 of the 6 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Napoli · last 10 at home5.3 corners, 1.2 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/10Over 4.5 corners5/10Over 5.5 corners

AS Roma · last 10 away4.1 corners, 2.0 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/10Over 4.5 corners4/10Over 5.5 corners4/10Over 0.5 cards9/10Over 1.5 cards6/10

Bench

N. Contini, V. Milinković-Savić, S. Beukema, Luca Marianucci, L. Spinazzola, B. Gilmour, A. Vergara, S. Lobotka, L. Lucca, Giovane

AS Roma · 3-5-2

95P. Gollini

5E. Ndicka

22Hermoso

23G. Mancini

2D. Rensch

4B. Cristante

15M. de Roon

43Wesley

61N. Pisilli

14D. Malen

18M. Soulé

Bench

D. Vásquez, G. De Marzi, K. Koulierakis, N. Molina, L. Balerdi, E. Lulli, D. Ghilardi, Rodrigo Mora, S. Castro

Napoli – AS RomaApril 28, 2024 · Serie A

AS Roma – NapoliDecember 23, 2023 · Serie A2-0

Napoli – AS RomaJanuary 29, 2023 · Serie A2-1

AS Roma – NapoliOctober 23, 2022 · Serie A0-1

Napoli – AS RomaApril 18, 2022 · Serie A1-1

AS Roma – NapoliOctober 24, 2021 · Serie A0-0

AS Roma – NapoliMarch 21, 2021 · Serie A0-2

Napoli – AS RomaNovember 29, 2020 · Serie A4-0

Napoli – AS RomaJuly 5, 2020 · Serie A2-1

AS Roma – NapoliNovember 2, 2019 · Serie A2-1

AS Roma – NapoliMarch 31, 2019 · Serie A1-4

Nahuel MolinaOff: Devyne Rensch

58'⇄Leonardo BalerdiOff: Mario Hermoso

58'⇄Santiago Thomas CastroOff: Niccolò Pisilli

66'⇄Giovane Santana Do NascimentoOff: Matteo Politano

69'⚽Matias SouleAssist: Donyell Malen

74'⚽Leonardo BalerdiAssist: Santiago Thomas Castro

79'⇄Stanislav LobotkaOff: Kevin De Bruyne

79'⇄Antonio VergaraOff: Noa Lang

80'⇄Leonardo SpinazzolaOff: Giovanni Di Lorenzo

83'⚽Scott McTominayAssist: Mathias Olivera

84'⇄Rodrigo MoraOff: Donyell Malen

84'⇄Daniele GhilardiOff: Gianluca Mancini

89'⚽Leonardo BalerdiAssist: Wesley Vinícius França Lima

90'Massimiliano Allegri

Statistics

40%Possession60%

2.51Expected goals1.96

15Total shots24

9Shots on target4

2Corners11

6Fouls11

0Offsides1

1Yellow cards4

0Red cards0

1Saves5

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Both score.

%57Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Over 2.5%51

Under 2.5%49

Not both score%43

AS Roma win%36

Napoli win%35

Draw%28

Why?

AS Roma · last 10 away: both scored 5 times5/10

Napoli: both sides scored in 3 of their last 10 home matches.
AS Roma: both sides scored in 5 of their last 10 away matches.
Napoli scored 1.7 and conceded 1.1 per game in their last 10 home matches.
AS Roma scored 1.8 and conceded 1.1 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Napoli: 10 games · AS Roma: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.9Goals scored (avg)2.4

1.4Goals conceded (avg)1.3

3.3Total goals per gameleague 3.23.7

10/10Over 0.5league %989/10

7/10Over 1.5league %869/10

6/10Over 2.5league %615/10

4/10Over 3.5league %365/10

3/10Over 4.5league %224/10

4/10Both scoreleague %595/10

4/10Clean sheets5/10

2/10Failed to score1/10

Napoli: 10 games · AS Roma: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.9Goals scored (avg)2.6

1.6Goals conceded (avg)1.4

3.5Total goals per gameleague 3.24.0

10/10Over 0.5league %989/10

7/10Over 1.5league %869/10

6/10Over 2.5league %616/10

5/10Over 3.5league %366/10

4/10Over 4.5league %224/10

6/10Both scoreleague %596/10

2/10Clean sheets4/10

2/10Failed to score1/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%19 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Napoli win 496, 193 end level and AS Roma win 311. The actual result comes up 193 times in 1000.

%28 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.

2.42 – 1.92 The score the chances deserved (xG): Napoli 2.42 – 1.92 AS Roma.

9 – 4 Shots on target: Napoli 9 – 4 AS Roma.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

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Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

Last 5 matches

Last 15 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Napoli's ground

Last 15 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Napoli · Serie A

AS Roma · Serie A

Napoli · All games

AS Roma · All games

Statistics

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match