Venezia – Napoli: probabilities, statistics and live score

VeneziaSerie A · #20

1-0Saturday, October 17

NapoliSerie A · #7

Match events

VeneziaNapoli

49'⚽Akor AdamsAssist: Simon Sohm
54'⇄Rasmus HojlundOff: Lorenzo Lucca
54'⇄Alisson SantosOff: Giovane Santana Do Nascimento
54'⇄Kevin De BruyneOff: Billy Gilmour
61'Toma Bašić
63'⇄Albion RrahmaniOff: John Yeboah

Chances to win

Venezia%22

Draw%24

Napoli%54

At a glance

Over 1.5

%55Over 2.5

%55Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

Last 5 matches

VeneziaL1-3L0-2L2-4L2-3L1-2

NapoliL1-3W3-0D1-1W1-0L

Last 2 meetings

0Venezia won

1Draw

1Napoli won

0.5
Goals per game0/2
Over 2.50/2
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Venezia · last 10 at home6/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 4 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Napoli · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 5 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Venezia · last 10 at home6.1 corners, 1.8 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners8/10Over 4.5 corners8/10Over 5.5 corners5/10

Napoli · 3-4-2-1

1A. Meret

5B. Badiashile

13Amir Rrahmani

31S. Beukema

6B. Gilmour

8S. McTominay

22G. Di Lorenzo

23Giovane

37L. Spinazzola

68S. Lobotka

20L. Lucca

Bench

N. Contini, V. Milinković-Savić, Rafa Marín, M. Olivera, Luca Marianucci, K. De Bruyne, A. Zambo Anguissa, R. Højlund, M. Politano, Alisson Santos, N. Lang

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%55Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Missed

Other scenarios

Both score%55

Napoli win%54

Under 2.5%45

Not both score%45

Draw%24

Venezia win%22

Why?

Venezia · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 5 times5/10

Napoli · last 10 away: 3+ goals 5 times5/10

Venezia: 3+ goals in 5 of their last 10 home matches.
Napoli: 3+ goals in 5 of their last 10 away matches.
Venezia scored 2.1 and conceded 1.2 per game in their last 10 home matches.
Napoli scored 1.4 and conceded 1.1 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Venezia: 10 games · Napoli: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.6Goals scored (avg)1.5

1.4Goals conceded (avg)1.0

3.0Total goals per gameleague 3.22.5

10/10Over 0.5league %989/10

9/10Over 1.5league %867/10

4/10Over 2.5league %614/10

4/10Over 3.5league %363/10

2/10Over 4.5league %222/10

4/10Both scoreleague %595/10

3/10Clean sheets4/10

3/10Failed to score2/10

Venezia: 10 games · Napoli: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

0.7Goals scored (avg)1.9

2.1Goals conceded (avg)1.6

2.8Total goals per gameleague 3.23.5

10/10Over 0.5league %9810/10

8/10Over 1.5league %867/10

4/10Over 2.5league %616/10

3/10Over 3.5league %365/10

2/10Over 4.5league %224/10

4/10Both scoreleague %596/10

1/10Clean sheets2/10

5/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

Venezia: a 6-match wait for a win is over.

%8 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Venezia win 81, 152 end level and Napoli win 767. The actual result comes up 81 times in 1000.

0.67 – 2.46 The score the chances deserved (xG): Venezia 0.67 – 2.46 Napoli.

%22 Our model's pre-match chance of a Venezia win.

5 more numbers for this match in Premium

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

Last 5 matches

Last 2 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Missing players

Starting line-ups

Last 2 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Venezia · Serie A

Napoli · Serie A

Venezia · All games

Napoli · All games

Statistics

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match