The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Both score.
%56Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Missed
Other scenarios
Over 2.5%51
Under 2.5%49
Not both score%44
Gremio win%40
Atletico Paranaense win%32
Draw%28
Why?
Gremio: both sides scored in 7 of their last 10 home matches.
Last 5 matches
GremioW1-0L2-4D1-1D1-1D0-0
Atletico ParanaenseD1-1L0-2W4-1D2-2W2-1
Last 15 meetings
7Gremio won
2Draw
6Atletico Paranaense won
2.2 Goals per game6/15 Over 2.56/15 Both score
Handicap and HT/FT history
By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.
Gremio · last 10 at home2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 5 games it led at half-time.
Atletico Paranaense · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 4 games it led at half-time.
Corners and cards
Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.
Gremio · last 10 at home5.6 corners, 3.5 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners
Referee
A. Gomes Stefano3.3 cards a match in 3 recorded games
Premium members onlyLikely scores, likely scorers, corner, card and half chances.
Gremio · Serie A
2W 3D 5LScored 11 · conceded 142.5 Üst 4/10KG 6/10
Atletico Paranaense · Serie A
3W 5D 2LScored 20 · conceded 192.5 Üst 7/10KG 9/10
Gremio · All games
3W 3D 4LScored 14 · conceded 142.5 Üst 5/10KG 7/10
Atletico Paranaense · All games
3W 5D 2LScored 20 · conceded 192.5 Üst 7/10KG 9/10
Missing players
Gremio
J. Cabral
This season 9 games · 1 goals · 1 assists · Muscle Injury
C. Pavon
This season 18 games · 4 goals · 2 assists · Muscle Injury
Danilo Barbosa
This season 9 games · 0 goals · 0 assists · Injury
J. Nardoni
This season 12 games · 0 goals · 0 assists · Inactive
Diego Caito
This season 14 games · 1 goals · 0 assists · Muscle Injury
B. G. Joao Pedro
No games this season · Injury
Atletico Paranaense
Jadson
This season 16 games · 0 goals · 0 assists · Yellow Cards
Gilberto
This season 14 games · 0 goals · 2 assists · Yellow Cards
C. Teran
This season 5 games · 0 goals · 0 assists · Inactive
G. Benavidez
This season 10 games · 1 goals · 0 assists · Muscle Injury
K. A. Calderon Vargas
This season 10 games · 2 goals · 3 assists · Inactive
Dantas
This season 6 games · 0 goals · 1 assists · Inactive
Arthur Dias
This season 15 games · 1 goals · 0 assists · Inactive
This fixture at Gremio's ground
The meetings the home side hosted, of the last 7
4Gremio won
1Draw
2Atletico Paranaense won
Gremio last won here on Apr 18, 2024: Gremio 2-0 Atletico Paranaense.Atletico Paranaense last won here on Oct 19, 2023: Gremio 1-2 Atletico Paranaense.1.7 goals a game here · over 2.5 2/7 · BTTS 2/7
Last 15 meetings
7Gremio won
2Draw
6Atletico Paranaense won
2.2 Goals per game6/15 Over 2.56/15 Both score
Previous meetings
Atletico Paranaense – GremioMay 3, 2026 · Serie A0-0
Atletico Paranaense – GremioAugust 4, 2024 · Serie A0-2
Gremio – Atletico ParanaenseApril 18, 2024 · Serie A2-0
Gremio – Atletico ParanaenseOctober 19, 2023 · Serie A
This season 6 games · 0 goals · 0 assists · Knee Injury
Starting line-ups
Gremio · 3-4-3
1Weverton
2Fabián Balbuena
6Gustavo Martins
82Wallace
8Erick Noriega
18João Pedro
20Mathias Villasanti
23Marlon
9Francis Amuzu
95Carlos Vinícius
99José Enamorado
Bench
Gabriel Grando, Wagner Leonardo, Marcos Rocha, Caio Paulista, Pedro Gabriel, Filip Krovinović, Dodi, João Borne, Zortéa, Tetê, Martin Braithwaite, Matheus Nascimento
Atletico Paranaense · 3-4-2-1
1Mycael
4Arthur Dias
33Juan Felipe Aguirre
37Lucas Esquivel
6Leonardo Derik
7Steven Mendoza
14Luiz Gustavo
27Juan Portilla
8João Cruz
9Kevin Viveros
21Leozinho
Bench
Santos, Gilberto Junior, Felipinho, Dantas, Gastón Benavídez, Bruno Baldini, Bruno Zapelli, Chiqueti, Dudu, Kerwin Vargas, Jorge Rivaldo, Renan Peixoto Nepomuceno
1-2
Atletico Paranaense – GremioMay 27, 2023 · Serie A1-2
Atletico Paranaense – GremioSeptember 27, 2021 · Serie A4-2
Gremio – Atletico ParanaenseJune 13, 2021 · Serie A0-1
Gremio – Atletico ParanaenseFebruary 22, 2021 · Serie A1-0
Atletico Paranaense – GremioOctober 26, 2020 · Serie A1-2
Atletico Paranaense – GremioNovember 28, 2019 · Serie A2-0
Atletico Paranaense – GremioSeptember 5, 2019 · Copa Do Brasil2-0
Gremio – Atletico ParanaenseAugust 24, 2019 · Serie A2-1
Gremio – Atletico ParanaenseAugust 15, 2019 · Copa Do Brasil2-0
Atletico Paranaense – GremioAugust 26, 2018 · Serie A2-1
Gremio – Atletico ParanaenseApril 23, 2018 · Serie A0-0
⚽
Fabian Balbuena
62'⇄K. A. Calderon VargasOff: Leozinho
66'Carlos Vinicius
67'⇄TeteOff: J. Enamorado
67'⇄M. BraithwaiteOff: Carlos Vinicius
68'⇄DodiOff: Fabian Balbuena
69'E. Noriega
79'⇄Caio PaulistaOff: F. Amuzu
80'⇄J. RivaldoOff: Joao Cruz
87'⇄Wagner LeonardoOff: M. Villasanti
88'B. Zapelli
89'⇄Dudu KogitzkiOff: S. Mendoza
90+2'Weverton
Statistics
31%Possession69%
1.31Expected goals1.08
17Total shots14
5Shots on target4
6Corners8
13Fouls14
2Offsides0
3Yellow cards2
4Saves3
74%Pass accuracy90%
Atletico Paranaense: both sides scored in 7 of their last 10 away matches.
Gremio scored 1.4 and conceded 1.2 per game in their last 10 home matches.
Atletico Paranaense scored 1.8 and conceded 1.6 per game in their last 10 away matches.
Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.
Atletico Paranaense · last 10 away: both scored 7 times7/10
Gremio: 10 games · Atletico Paranaense: 10 games · league average in grey
Goals
1.5Goals scored (avg)1.6
1.1Goals conceded (avg)1.7
2.6Total goals per gameleague 2.73.3
9/10Over 0.5league %959/10
7/10Over 1.5league %789/10
5/10Over 2.5league %516/10
3/10Over 3.5league %255/10
1/10Over 4.5league %133/10
6/10Both scoreleague %596/10
3/10Clean sheets2/10
2/10Failed to score3/10
Gremio: 10 games · Atletico Paranaense: 10 games · league average in grey
Goals
1.3Goals scored (avg)1.9
1.3Goals conceded (avg)2.0
2.6Total goals per gameleague 2.73.9
9/10Over 0.5league %9510/10
7/10Over 1.5league %7810/10
4/10Over 2.5league %517/10
3/10Over 3.5league %256/10
2/10Over 4.5league %134/10
6/10Both scoreleague %598/10
3/10Clean sheets0/10
2/10Failed to score2/10
The real story of the match
What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.
%42 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Gremio win 418, 275 end level and Atletico Paranaense win 307. The actual result comes up 418 times in 1000.
GremioSerie A · #15
Atletico ParanaenseSerie A · #5