Gremio – Cruzeiro: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Serie A · Brazil · Matchday 31

GremioSerie A · #15

2-4Sunday, October 18

CruzeiroSerie A · #3

Match events

GremioCruzeiro

17'⚽Carlos ViníciusPenalty
23'⚽Kaio JorgeAssist: Matheus Pereira
36'⇄Erick NoriegaOff: Danilo Barbosa da Silva
41'⚽Cristian Pavón
48'⚽Kaio Jorge
61'⚽Kaio JorgeAssist: William
66'

Chances to win

Gremio%31

Draw%27

Cruzeiro%43

At a glance

Over 1.5

%54Over 2.5

%58Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Both score.

%58Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Over 2.5%54

Under 2.5%46

Cruzeiro win%43

Not both score%42

Gremio win%31

Draw%27

Why?

Gremio: both sides scored in 7 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

GremioD1-1D1-1D0-0L2-3L1-2

CruzeiroL2-4W2-0W3-1L1-2W3-1

Last 9 meetings

1Gremio won

2Draw

6Cruzeiro won

2.3
Goals per game3/9
Over 2.53/9
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Gremio · last 10 at home2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Cruzeiro · last 10 away1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Gremio · last 10 at home5.2 corners, 3.6 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners5/10Over 5.5 corners

Cruzeiro · last 10 away4.5 corners, 2.7 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/10Over 4.5 corners5/10Over 5.5 corners5/10Over 0.5 cards9/10Over 1.5 cards7/10

Bench

Gabriel Grando, F. Balbuena, Wagner Leonardo, Marcos Rocha, João Pedro, Caio Paulista, Pedro Gabriel, E. Noriega, Dodi, Tetê, M. Braithwaite, J. Enamorado

Cruzeiro · 4-2-3-1

81Otávio Eleodoro Rezende Costa

12William

25L. Villalba

34Jonathan

43João Marcelo

5Zé Lucas

8Gerson

10Matheus Pereira

29L. Romero

99K. Arroyo

19Kaio Jorge

Bench

Cássio, Kauã Moraes, M. Viña, Fabrício Bruno, Fágner, G. Rojas, Matheus Henrique, Lucas Silva, Bruno Rodrigues, Marquinhos, Wesley Gassova, L. Rodríguez

Gremio – CruzeiroJuly 11, 2024 · Serie A0-2

Gremio – CruzeiroAugust 28, 2023 · Serie A3-0

Cruzeiro – GremioApril 23, 2023 · Serie A1-0

Gremio – CruzeiroAugust 21, 2022 · Serie B2-2

Cruzeiro – GremioMay 8, 2022 · Serie B1-0

Martin BraithwaiteOff: Filip Krovinović

66'⇄Matheus HenriqueOff: Zé Lucas

79'⇄Wesley Gassova Ribeiro TeixeiraOff: Keny arroyo

80'⚽João MarceloAssist: Gerson

90'⇄TetêOff: Cristian Pavón

90'⇄José EnamoradoOff: Francis Amuzu

90+2'⇄Luciano RodríguezOff: Kaio Jorge

90+2'⇄Fabrício BrunoOff: João Marcelo

90+2'⇄Bruno RodriguesOff: Gerson

Statistics

40%Possession60%

2.07Expected goals1.54

17Total shots13

6Shots on target6

8Corners9

19Fouls16

0Offsides1

2Yellow cards3

1Red cards0

2Saves4

Cruzeiro: both sides scored in 8 of their last 10 away matches.

Gremio scored 1.3 and conceded 1.1 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Cruzeiro scored 1.4 and conceded 1.6 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Gremio · last 10 at home: both scored 7 times7/10

Cruzeiro · last 10 away: both scored 8 times8/10

Gremio: 10 games · Cruzeiro: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.5Goals scored (avg)1.6

1.1Goals conceded (avg)1.7

2.6Total goals per gameleague 2.73.3

9/10Over 0.5league %959/10

7/10Over 1.5league %788/10

5/10Over 2.5league %518/10

3/10Over 3.5league %254/10

1/10Over 4.5league %132/10

6/10Both scoreleague %598/10

3/10Clean sheets2/10

2/10Failed to score1/10

Gremio: 10 games · Cruzeiro: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.3Goals scored (avg)1.9

1.3Goals conceded (avg)1.5

2.6Total goals per gameleague 2.73.4

9/10Over 0.5league %9510/10

7/10Over 1.5league %788/10

4/10Over 2.5league %517/10

3/10Over 3.5league %255/10

2/10Over 4.5league %132/10

6/10Both scoreleague %597/10

3/10Clean sheets3/10

2/10Failed to score0/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%29 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Gremio win 500, 212 end level and Cruzeiro win 288. The actual result comes up 288 times in 1000.

2.07 – 1.54 The score the chances deserved (xG): Gremio 2.07 – 1.54 Cruzeiro.

9.3

Man of the match: Kaio Jorge (Cruzeiro), rated 9.3.

%43 Our model's pre-match chance of an Cruzeiro win.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 9 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Gremio · Serie A

Cruzeiro · Serie A

Gremio · All games

Cruzeiro · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Gremio's ground

Last 9 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match