Gremio – Internacional: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Serie A · Brazil · Matchday 30

GremioSerie A · #15

1-1Sunday, October 11

InternacionalSerie A · #18

Match events

GremioInternacional

25'Alan Patrick
27'Rodrigo Villagra
29'Mathias Villasanti
33'⚽VitinhoAssist: Alerrandro
45'⇄Bruno HenriqueOff: Alan Patrick
53'Bruno Henrique

Chances to win

Gremio%33

Draw%30

Internacional%37

At a glance

Over 1.5

%44Over 2.5

%51Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Under 2.5.

%56Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%51

Not both score%49

Over 2.5%44

Internacional win%37

Gremio win%33

Draw%30

Why?

Gremio: 2 or fewer goals in 4 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

GremioD1-1D0-0L2-3L1-2L0-1

InternacionalW2-1L0-1W2-1L2-3L1-3

Last 9 meetings

3Gremio won

3Draw

3Internacional won

2.4
Goals per game4/9
Over 2.55/9
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Gremio · last 10 at home2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Internacional · last 10 away0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).6/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).0/10games led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Gremio · last 10 at home5.3 corners, 3.7 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners5/10Over 5.5 corners

Internacional · last 10 away4.6 corners, 2.9 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners4/10Over 4.5 corners4/10Over 5.5 corners4/10Over 0.5 cards9/10Over 1.5 cards9/10

Bench

Gabriel Grando, F. Balbuena, Wagner Leonardo, Gustavo Martins, Marcos Rocha, João Pedro, Caio Paulista, Pedro Gabriel, J. Nardoni, E. Noriega, Tetê, M. Braithwaite, J. Enamorado

Internacional · 3-4-2-1

12Anthoni

15Bruno Gomes

18Juninho

25G. Mercado

5R. Villagra

10Alan Patrick

26A. Bernabéi

28Vitinho

29Thiago Maia

35B. Aguirre

9Alerrandro

Bench

Matheus Cunha, F. Torres, Matheus Bahia, Victor Gabriel, Bruno Henrique, Ronaldo, N. Eliasson, Paulinho, Calebe, J. Carbonero, Victor Joao, J. Bezerra

Gremio – InternacionalApril 20, 2025 · Serie A1-1

Internacional – GremioOctober 19, 2024 · Serie A1-0

Gremio – InternacionalJune 22, 2024 · Serie A0-1

Internacional – GremioOctober 8, 2023 · Serie A3-2

Gremio – InternacionalMay 22, 2023 · Serie A3-1

Johan CarboneroOff: Alerrandro

62'⇄Martin BraithwaiteOff: Filip Krovinović

62'⇄José EnamoradoOff: Diego Caito Barcellos Oliveira dos Santos

69'⇄Paulo Lucas Santos de PaulaOff: Thiago Maia

73'⚽Wallace Gomes da Silva Santos

85'⇄Matheus BahiaOff: Alexandro Bernabéi

85'⇄Felix TorresOff: Brian Aguirre

86'⇄TetêOff: Francis Amuzu

86'⇄Gustavo MartinsOff: Danilo Barbosa da Silva

87'⇄Caio PaulistaOff: Marlon

Statistics

67%Possession33%

1.48Expected goals0.86

12Total shots14

3Shots on target3

6Corners5

10Fouls26

2Offsides0

2Yellow cards3

0Red cards0

2Saves2

Internacional: 2 or fewer goals in 4 of their last 10 away matches.

Gremio scored 1.4 and conceded 1.2 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Internacional scored 0.9 and conceded 1.9 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Gremio: 10 games · Internacional: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.5Goals scored (avg)0.8

1.1Goals conceded (avg)1.7

2.6Total goals per gameleague 2.72.5

9/10Over 0.5league %959/10

7/10Over 1.5league %788/10

5/10Over 2.5league %515/10

3/10Over 3.5league %252/10

1/10Over 4.5league %131/10

6/10Both scoreleague %596/10

3/10Clean sheets1/10

2/10Failed to score4/10

Gremio: 10 games · Internacional: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.3Goals scored (avg)1.4

1.3Goals conceded (avg)1.7

2.6Total goals per gameleague 2.73.1

9/10Over 0.5league %9510/10

7/10Over 1.5league %789/10

4/10Over 2.5league %517/10

3/10Over 3.5league %253/10

2/10Over 4.5league %132/10

6/10Both scoreleague %597/10

3/10Clean sheets1/10

2/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%26 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Gremio win 517, 264 end level and Internacional win 219. The actual result comes up 264 times in 1000.

%30 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.

1.48 – 0.86 The score the chances deserved (xG): Gremio 1.48 – 0.86 Internacional.

67 – 33 Possession (%): Gremio 67 – 33 Internacional.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 9 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Gremio · Serie A

Internacional · Serie A

Gremio · All games

Internacional · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Gremio's ground

Last 9 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match