Coritiba – Gremio: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Serie A · Brazil · Matchday 32

CoritibaSerie A · #12

0-1Tuesday, October 27

GremioSerie A · #15

Match events

CoritibaGremio

6'⇄João PedroOff: Diego Caito Barcellos Oliveira dos Santos
40'Tinga
59'⇄José EnamoradoOff: Cristian Pavón
59'⇄Filip KrovinovićOff: Fabián Balbuena
60'⇄Breno LopesOff: Pedro Rocha
69'⇄Fabricio BustosOff: Tinga

Chances to win

Coritiba%43

Draw%28

Gremio%29

At a glance

Over 1.5

%50Over 2.5

%54Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Both score.

%54Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 5.Missed

Other scenarios

Under 2.5%50

Over 2.5%50

Not both score%46

Coritiba win%43

Gremio win%29

Draw%28

Why?

Coritiba: both sides scored in 8 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

CoritibaL0-1D1-1L0-4L0-5D3-3

GremioL2-4D1-1D1-1D0-0L2-3

Last 15 meetings

5Coritiba won

3Draw

7Gremio won

2.5
Goals per game6/15
Over 2.56/15
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Coritiba · last 10 at home0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Gremio · last 10 away0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/10games led at half-time.Won 0 of the 1 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Coritiba · last 9 at home5.3 corners, 1.9 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/9Over 4.5 corners5/9Over 5.5 corners3/9

Gremio · last 10 away3.6 corners, 2.9 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/10Over 4.5 corners3/10Over 5.5 corners2/10Over 0.5 cards10/10Over 1.5 cards8/10

Bench

Keiller, Maicon, Rodrigo Moledo, Felipe Jonatan, F. Bustos, Richard, Tissi, B. Ocampo, Fabinho, Vini Paulista, Breno Lopes, Rodrigo Rodrigues

Gremio · 3-4-3

1Weverton

2F. Balbuena

6Gustavo Martins

82Wallace

8E. Noriega

20M. Villasanti

23Marlon

27Diego Caito

7C. Pavón

9F. Amuzu

95Carlos Vinícius

Bench

Gabriel Grando, Wagner Leonardo, Marcos Rocha, João Pedro, Caio Paulista, F. Krovinović, Dodi, Bernardo Zortea, Tetê, M. Braithwaite, Matheus Nascimento, J. Enamorado

Gremio – CoritibaOctober 8, 2020 · Serie A2-1

Coritiba – GremioOctober 16, 2017 · Serie A0-1

Gremio – CoritibaJune 23, 2017 · Serie A2-0

Coritiba – GremioSeptember 8, 2016 · Serie A4-0

Gremio – CoritibaMay 30, 2016 · Serie A2-0

Gremio – CoritibaAugust 30, 2015 · Serie A0-0

Coritiba – GremioMay 17, 2015 · Serie A2-0

Coritiba – GremioOctober 25, 2014 · Serie A1-1

Gremio – CoritibaJuly 28, 2014 · Serie A2-3

Coritiba – GremioOctober 27, 2013 · Serie A4-0

Gremio – CoritibaAugust 9, 2013 · Serie A0-1

69'⇄RichardOff: Sebastián Gómez

76'⇄Brian OcampoOff: Joaquin Lavega

77'⇄Vitor Gonçalves TissiOff: Nicolas Fonseca

82'⇄Martin BraithwaiteOff: Erick Noriega

82'⇄Caio PaulistaOff: Marlon

90+2'⚽Martin BraithwaiteAssist: Francis Amuzu

Statistics

42%Possession58%

1.21Expected goals1.87

12Total shots17

4Shots on target6

5Corners10

10Fouls16

0Offsides3

1Yellow cards0

0Red cards0

5Saves4

Gremio: both sides scored in 6 of their last 10 away matches.

Coritiba scored 1.5 and conceded 1.8 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Gremio scored 0.8 and conceded 1.6 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Coritiba · last 10 at home: both scored 8 times8/10

Gremio · last 10 away: both scored 6 times6/10

Coritiba: 10 games · Gremio: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.5Goals scored (avg)0.8

1.5Goals conceded (avg)1.5

3.0Total goals per gameleague 2.72.3

10/10Over 0.5league %959/10

8/10Over 1.5league %786/10

6/10Over 2.5league %514/10

3/10Over 3.5league %252/10

2/10Over 4.5league %132/10

7/10Both scoreleague %595/10

1/10Clean sheets2/10

2/10Failed to score4/10

Coritiba: 10 games · Gremio: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.2Goals scored (avg)1.3

2.0Goals conceded (avg)1.3

3.2Total goals per gameleague 2.72.6

10/10Over 0.5league %959/10

8/10Over 1.5league %787/10

6/10Over 2.5league %514/10

4/10Over 3.5league %253/10

3/10Over 4.5league %132/10

5/10Both scoreleague %596/10

1/10Clean sheets3/10

4/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

Gremio: a 7-match wait for a win is over.

90+2'

Martin Braithwaite decided it in minute 90.

%29 Our model's pre-match chance of an Gremio win.

%53 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Coritiba win 246, 226 end level and Gremio win 528. The actual result comes up 528 times in 1000.

3 more numbers for this match in Premium

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 15 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Coritiba · Serie A

Gremio · Serie A

Coritiba · All games

Gremio · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Coritiba's ground

Last 15 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match