Bahia – Sao Paulo: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Serie A · Brazil · Matchday 33

BahiaSerie A · #6

3-2Thursday, October 29

Sao PauloSerie A · #10

Match events

BahiaSao Paulo

6'⚽Rodrigo NestorAssist: Jean Lucas
10'⚽erick pulgaAssist: Marcos Victor
43'⚽Lucas MouraAssist: Jonathan Calleri
45+5'⚽Damian Bobadilla
56'⇄Éverton RibeiroOff: Jean Lucas
56'⇄Erick Luis Conrado CarvalhoOff: Nicolas Acevedo
56'

Chances to win

Bahia%51

Draw%25

Sao Paulo%24

At a glance

Over 1.5

%55Over 2.5

%57Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%55Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%57

Bahia win%51

Under 2.5%45

Not both score%43

Draw%25

Sao Paulo win%24

Why?

Bahia: 3+ goals in 5 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

BahiaD1-1L0-3W1-0L0-1L1-2

Sao PauloD1-1W1-0W2-1L0-2L1-2

Last 15 meetings

4Bahia won

5Draw

6Sao Paulo won

1.8
Goals per game5/15
Over 2.55/15
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Bahia · last 10 at home1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 4 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Sao Paulo · last 10 away0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 0 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Bahia · last 10 at home6.4 corners, 2.7 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners9/10Over 4.5 corners7/10Over 5.5 corners7/10

Sao Paulo · last 10 away5.1 corners, 2.2 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners5/10Over 0.5 cards10/10Over 1.5 cards7/10

Bench

G. Herrera, Roman Gomez, Luiz Gustavo, Caio Alexandre, Erick, M. Araújo, Ademir, M. Sanabria, Everaldo, Ruan Pablo

Sao Paulo · 3-4-2-1

23Rafael

5R. Arboleda

28Newton

35Sabino

7Lucas Moura

10Luciano

16D. Bobadilla

18Wendell

29Pablo Maia

32Pedro Lima

9J. Calleri

Bench

Carlos Coronel, R. Tolói, Lucas Ramon, Osorio Luis, Pedro Ferreira, D. Ferreira, Cauly, Danielzinho, André Silva, Victor Sá, G. Santana, Ryan Francisco

Sao Paulo – BahiaJune 30, 2024 · Serie A3-1

Bahia – Sao PauloNovember 30, 2023 · Serie A0-1

Sao Paulo – BahiaJuly 30, 2023 · Serie A0-0

Bahia – Sao PauloNovember 8, 2021 · Serie A1-0

Sao Paulo – BahiaJuly 11, 2021 · Serie A1-0

Bahia – Sao PauloNovember 29, 2020 · Serie A1-3

Sao Paulo – BahiaAugust 21, 2020 · Serie A1-1

Bahia – Sao PauloOctober 10, 2019 · Serie A0-0

Bahia – Sao PauloMay 30, 2019 · Copa Do Brasil1-0

Sao Paulo – BahiaMay 23, 2019 · Copa Do Brasil0-1

Sao Paulo – BahiaMay 19, 2019 · Serie A0-0

AdemirOff: erick pulga

71'⇄Djhordney FerreiraOff: Luciano

74'⇄Caio AlexandreOff: Rodrigo Nestor

81'⚽Marcos VictorAssist: Erick Luis Conrado Carvalho

82'⇄Gustavo SantanaOff: Jose Monteiro

82'⇄Victor SáOff: Wendell

82'⇄DanielzinhoOff: Pablo Maia

82'⇄Cauly Oliveira SouzaOff: Damian Bobadilla

88'⇄Michel AraujoOff: Cristian Olivera

90+1'Gustavo Santana

90+3'Dorival Silvestre Júnior

Statistics

47%Possession53%

1.17Expected goals0.91

13Total shots14

4Shots on target6

7Corners11

12Fouls13

0Offsides3

2Yellow cards3

0Red cards0

4Saves1

Sao Paulo: 3+ goals in 2 of their last 10 away matches.

Bahia scored 1.3 and conceded 1.1 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Sao Paulo scored 0.5 and conceded 1.4 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Bahia · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 5 times5/10

Bahia: 10 games · Sao Paulo: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.5Goals scored (avg)0.6

1.1Goals conceded (avg)1.5

2.6Total goals per gameleague 2.72.1

9/10Over 0.5league %9510/10

8/10Over 1.5league %787/10

5/10Over 2.5league %512/10

2/10Over 3.5league %251/10

2/10Over 4.5league %131/10

6/10Both scoreleague %595/10

3/10Clean sheets0/10

2/10Failed to score5/10

Bahia: 10 games · Sao Paulo: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.6Goals scored (avg)0.9

1.4Goals conceded (avg)1.3

3.0Total goals per gameleague 2.72.2

10/10Over 0.5league %9510/10

8/10Over 1.5league %787/10

6/10Over 2.5league %513/10

3/10Over 3.5league %251/10

3/10Over 4.5league %131/10

6/10Both scoreleague %595/10

2/10Clean sheets2/10

2/10Failed to score3/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%42 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Bahia win 418, 298 end level and Sao Paulo win 284. The actual result comes up 418 times in 1000.

1.17 – 0.91 The score the chances deserved (xG): Bahia 1.17 – 0.91 Sao Paulo.

7.7

Man of the match: Erick Pulga (Bahia), rated 7.7.

%51 Our model's pre-match chance of a Bahia win.

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 15 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Bahia · Serie A

Sao Paulo · Serie A

Bahia · All games

Sao Paulo · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Bahia's ground

Last 15 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match