Sao Paulo – Vasco DA Gama: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Serie A · Brazil · Matchday 31

Sao PauloSerie A · #10

1-0Sunday, October 18

Vasco DA GamaSerie A · #13

Match events

Sao PauloVasco DA Gama

42'Artur Victor Guimarães
44'Facundo Colidio
45'⇄Jose Luis RodriguezOff: Paulo Henrique
45'⇄Lucas MouraOff: Luciano
45'⇄Jose MonteiroOff: Rafael Tolói
51'VARGabriel PereiraRed card cancelled

Chances to win

Sao Paulo%44

Draw%28

Vasco DA Gama%28

At a glance

Over 1.5

%45Over 2.5

%51Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Under 2.5.

%55Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%51

Not both score%49

Over 2.5%45

Sao Paulo win%44

Draw%28

Vasco DA Gama win%28

Why?

Sao Paulo: 2 or fewer goals in 5 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

Sao PauloW2-1L0-2L1-2W1-0D1-1

Vasco DA GamaW1-0D0-0W2-1W5-0W2-0

Last 7 meetings

3Sao Paulo won

1Draw

3Vasco DA Gama won

3.3
Goals per game5/7
Over 2.54/7
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Sao Paulo · last 10 at home3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).6/10games led at half-time.Won 4 of the 6 games it led at half-time.

Vasco DA Gama · last 10 away3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 4 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Sao Paulo · last 10 at home7.6 corners, 1.8 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners9/10Over 4.5 corners7/10Over 5.5 corners7/10

Vasco DA Gama · last 10 away5.1 corners, 2.9 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners3/10Over 0.5 cards9/10Over 1.5 cards8/10

Sao Paulo · 3-4-2-1

23Rafael

2R. Tolói

5R. Arboleda

28Newton

8Marcos Antônio

10Luciano

12Iago

16D. Bobadilla

32Pedro Lima

37Artur

9J. Calleri

Bench

Carlos Coronel, Wendell, Lucas Ramon, Sabino, Osorio Luis, Pablo Maia, Pedro Ferreira, Lucas Moura, Victor Sá, G. Santana, Lucca Marques Alencar, Ryan Francisco

Vasco DA Gama · 4-2-3-1

1Léo Jardim

30Robert Renan

55Gabriel Pereira

66Cuiabano

96Paulo Henrique

3Tchê Tchê

5S. Sosa

9F. Colidio

11A. Gómez

22A. Lescano

19Bruno Duarte

Bench

Daniel Fuzato, J. Rodríguez, A. Saldivia, Lucas Piton, Lucas Freitas, Jair, Thiago Mendes, Ramon Rique, David, Brenner, Adson, Loide Augusto

Vasco DA Gama – Sao PauloJune 23, 2024 · Serie A4-1

Vasco DA Gama – Sao PauloOctober 8, 2023 · Serie A0-0

Sao Paulo – Vasco DA GamaMay 21, 2023 · Serie A4-2

62'⇄BrennerOff: Bruno Duarte Da Silva

68'⚽Artur Victor GuimarãesAssist: Pedro Lima

71'⇄Pablo MaiaOff: Marcos Antonio

74'⇄Thiago MendesOff: Tchê Tchê

74'⇄JairOff: Santiago Sosa

80'⇄Gustavo SantanaOff: Jonathan Calleri

89'⇄Luis Osorio Messias De OliveiraOff: Artur Victor Guimarães

89'⇄AdsonOff: Alan Lescano

90+2'Iago Amaral Borduchi

Statistics

40%Possession60%

1.26Expected goals0.92

9Total shots13

2Shots on target2

3Corners4

14Fouls15

1Offsides2

2Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

2Saves1

Vasco DA Gama: 2 or fewer goals in 5 of their last 10 away matches.

Sao Paulo scored 1.6 and conceded 0.9 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Vasco DA Gama scored 1.5 and conceded 0.9 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Sao Paulo · last 10 at home: 2 or fewer goals 5 times5/10

Vasco DA Gama · last 10 away: 2 or fewer goals 5 times5/10

Sao Paulo: 10 games · Vasco DA Gama: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.5Goals scored (avg)1.2

0.9Goals conceded (avg)0.9

2.4Total goals per gameleague 2.72.1

10/10Over 0.5league %958/10

8/10Over 1.5league %785/10

5/10Over 2.5league %514/10

1/10Over 3.5league %252/10

0/10Over 4.5league %132/10

7/10Both scoreleague %594/10

3/10Clean sheets4/10

0/10Failed to score4/10

Sao Paulo: 10 games · Vasco DA Gama: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

0.9Goals scored (avg)1.7

1.3Goals conceded (avg)1.2

2.2Total goals per gameleague 2.72.9

10/10Over 0.5league %959/10

7/10Over 1.5league %787/10

3/10Over 2.5league %516/10

1/10Over 3.5league %254/10

1/10Over 4.5league %133/10

5/10Both scoreleague %595/10

2/10Clean sheets4/10

3/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

Vasco DA Gama: a 7-match unbeaten run ended here.

%44 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Sao Paulo win 442, 287 end level and Vasco DA Gama win 271. The actual result comes up 442 times in 1000.

1.26 – 0.92 The score the chances deserved (xG): Sao Paulo 1.26 – 0.92 Vasco DA Gama.

8.2

Man of the match: Artur (Sao Paulo), rated 8.2.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 7 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Sao Paulo · Serie A

Vasco DA Gama · Serie A

Sao Paulo · All games

Vasco DA Gama · All games

Missing players

This fixture at Sao Paulo's ground

Last 7 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Starting line-ups

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match