Boca Juniors – Vasco DA Gama: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Semi-final

Boca JuniorsApertura - Group A · #2

0-1Wednesday, October 14

Vasco DA GamaSerie A · #13

Match events

Boca JuniorsVasco DA Gama

8'Milton Delgado
25'⚽AdsonAssist: Andrés Gómez
44'Adson
51'Santiago Sosa
58'⇄Sebastián VillaOff: Williams Alarcón
63'Andrés Gómez
64'

Chances to win

Boca Juniors%51

Draw%29

Vasco DA Gama%20

At a glance

Over 1.5

%36Over 2.5

%41Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Under 2.5.

%64Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Not both score%59

Boca Juniors win%51

Both score%41

Over 2.5%36

Draw%29

Vasco DA Gama win%20

Why?

Boca Juniors: 2 or fewer goals in 7 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

Boca JuniorsD2-2W3-0W3-2W2-0D1-1

Vasco DA GamaD0-0W2-1W5-0W2-0W2-1

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Boca Juniors · last 10 at home3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 4 of the 5 games it led at half-time.

Vasco DA Gama · last 10 away3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Boca Juniors · last 10 at home6.6 corners, 1.6 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners8/10Over 4.5 corners7/10Over 5.5 corners6/10

Vasco DA Gama · last 10 away5.6 corners, 2.7 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners7/10Over 5.5 corners4/10Over 0.5 cards9/10Over 1.5 cards7/10

Bench

Daniel Fuzato, J. Rodríguez, Lucas Piton, Lucas Freitas, Gabriel Pereira, Tchê Tchê, Jair, Ramon Rique, David, Nuno Moreira, M. Hinestroza, Brenner

67'⇄Miguel MerentielOff: Carlos Palacios

68'⇄Tchê TchêOff: Adson

78'⇄BrennerOff: Bruno Duarte Da Silva

78'⇄Gabriel PereiraOff: Santiago Sosa

82'⇄Ramon Rique Santos De Souza BarrosOff: Alan Lescano

82'⇄Jose Luis RodriguezOff: Paulo Henrique

86'⇄Ángel RomeroOff: Santiago Ascacibar

Statistics

60%Possession40%

1.33Expected goals0.49

18Total shots9

2Shots on target2

9Corners1

8Fouls11

1Offsides1

1Yellow cards2

0Red cards1

1Saves2

Vasco DA Gama: 2 or fewer goals in 4 of their last 10 away matches.

Boca Juniors scored 1.5 and conceded 0.5 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Vasco DA Gama scored 1.6 and conceded 1.1 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Boca Juniors · last 10 at home: 2 or fewer goals 7 times7/10

Boca Juniors: 10 games · Vasco DA Gama: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.6Goals scored (avg)1.2

0.5Goals conceded (avg)0.9

2.1Total goals per gameleague 2.32.1

10/10Over 0.5league %898/10

5/10Over 1.5league %715/10

4/10Over 2.5league %394/10

2/10Over 3.5league %212/10

0/10Over 4.5league %82/10

4/10Both scoreleague %424/10

5/10Clean sheets4/10

1/10Failed to score4/10

Boca Juniors: 10 games · Vasco DA Gama: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.0Goals scored (avg)1.7

0.9Goals conceded (avg)1.2

2.9Total goals per gameleague 2.32.9

10/10Over 0.5league %899/10

8/10Over 1.5league %717/10

6/10Over 2.5league %396/10

4/10Over 3.5league %214/10

1/10Over 4.5league %83/10

6/10Both scoreleague %425/10

3/10Clean sheets4/10

1/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

Boca Juniors: a 15-match unbeaten run ended here.

%14 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Boca Juniors win 577, 286 end level and Vasco DA Gama win 136. The actual result comes up 136 times in 1000.

%20 Our model's pre-match chance of an Vasco DA Gama win.

18 – 9 Shots: Boca Juniors 18 – 9 Vasco DA Gama.

3 more numbers for this match in Premium

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Boca Juniors · CONMEBOL Sudamericana

Vasco DA Gama · CONMEBOL Sudamericana

Boca Juniors · All games

Vasco DA Gama · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match