Sao Paulo – Vitoria: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Serie A · Brazil · Matchday 30

Sao PauloSerie A · #10

2-1Sunday, October 11

VitoriaSerie A · #14

Match events

Sao PauloVitoria

16'Matheuzinho
16'Cacá
20'⚽Jonathan CalleriAssist: Iago Amaral Borduchi
24'Gustavo Santana
39'⚽Emmanuel MartínezAssist: Erick
44'Djhordney Ferreira
59'

Chances to win

Sao Paulo%56

Draw%26

Vitoria%18

At a glance

Over 1.5

%47Over 2.5

%48Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Sao Paulo win.

%56Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Under 2.5%53

Not both score%52

Both score%48

Over 2.5%47

Draw%26

Vitoria win%18

Why?

Sao Paulo won 5 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

Sao PauloL0-2L1-2W1-0D1-1L0-2

VitoriaW4-0L1-3D2-2W1-0L0-2

Last 5 meetings

3Sao Paulo won

0Draw

2Vitoria won

2.4
Goals per game2/5
Over 2.52/5
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Sao Paulo · last 10 at home3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).7/10games led at half-time.Won 4 of the 7 games it led at half-time.

Vitoria · last 10 away0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).6/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/10games led at half-time.Won 0 of the 1 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Sao Paulo · last 10 at home7.4 corners, 1.8 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners9/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners6/10

Vitoria · last 8 away4.1 corners, 2.4 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/8Over 4.5 corners5/8Over 5.5 corners1/8Over 0.5 cards8/8Over 1.5 cards4/8

Fabiano

This season 5 games · 0 goals · 0 assists · Knee Injury

Nathan Mendes

No games this season · Knee Injury

D. Tarzia

This season 17 games · 0 goals · 1 assists · Yellow Cards

Anderson

No games this season · Knee Injury

Starting line-ups

Sao Paulo · 3-4-2-1

23Rafael

5R. Arboleda

28Newton

35Sabino

12Iago

16D. Bobadilla

19Lucas Ramon

37Artur

43G. Santana

48D. Ferreira

9J. Calleri

Bench

Carlos Coronel, R. Tolói, Wendell, Pedro Lima, Marcos Antônio, Pablo Maia, Pedro Ferreira, Lucas Moura, André Silva, Victor Sá, Lucca Marques Alencar, Ryan Francisco

Vitoria · 4-1-4-1

1Lucas Arcanjo

25Cacá

36Luan Cândido

83Jamerson

98Mateusinho

6E. Martínez

10Matheuzinho

20Lucas Silva

33Erick

95Caíque

91Rene

Bench

Yuri Sena, E. Brítez, T. Pochettino, Walace, Edenilson, I. Laquintana, Zé Vitor, Marinho, Alex Bruno, Fabrício, Renato Kayzer

Vitoria – Sao PauloMay 5, 2024 · Serie A1-3

Lucas MouraOff: Djhordney Ferreira

59'⇄Marcos AntonioOff: Lucas Ramon

69'⇄Tomás PochettinoOff: Lucas Silva

70'⚽Jonathan Calleri

75'⇄Pedro FerreiraOff: Artur Victor Guimarães

75'⇄Pedro LimaOff: Gustavo Santana

78'Iago Amaral Borduchi

78'⇄Zé VitorOff: Caíque Gonçalves

78'⇄Anderson PatoOff: Matheuzinho

79'⇄Renato KayzerOff: Carlos Renê de Sousa Ferreira

84'⇄Rafael TolóiOff: Damian Bobadilla

90'⇄bruno alexOff: Emmanuel Martínez

Statistics

55%Possession45%

1.8Expected goals0.79

21Total shots12

6Shots on target2

6Corners2

13Fouls13

4Yellow cards3

0Red cards0

1Saves4

Sao Paulo scored 1.5 and conceded 0.9 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Vitoria scored 1.0 and conceded 1.8 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Sao Paulo · last 10 at home: 5 wins5/10

Vitoria · last 10 away: 6 defeats6/10

Sao Paulo: 10 games · Vitoria: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.5Goals scored (avg)0.7

0.9Goals conceded (avg)1.5

2.4Total goals per gameleague 2.72.2

10/10Over 0.5league %959/10

8/10Over 1.5league %788/10

5/10Over 2.5league %514/10

1/10Over 3.5league %251/10

0/10Over 4.5league %130/10

7/10Both scoreleague %595/10

3/10Clean sheets1/10

0/10Failed to score5/10

Sao Paulo: 10 games · Vitoria: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

0.9Goals scored (avg)1.2

1.3Goals conceded (avg)1.4

2.2Total goals per gameleague 2.72.6

10/10Over 0.5league %9510/10

7/10Over 1.5league %788/10

3/10Over 2.5league %515/10

1/10Over 3.5league %253/10

1/10Over 4.5league %130/10

5/10Both scoreleague %596/10

2/10Clean sheets2/10

3/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%61 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Sao Paulo win 614, 226 end level and Vitoria win 160. The actual result comes up 614 times in 1000.

9.4

Man of the match: J. Calleri (Sao Paulo), rated 9.4.

1.80 – 0.79 The score the chances deserved (xG): Sao Paulo 1.80 – 0.79 Vitoria.

%56 Our model's pre-match chance of a Sao Paulo win.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 5 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Sao Paulo · Serie A

Vitoria · Serie A

Sao Paulo · All games

Vitoria · All games

Missing players

This fixture at Sao Paulo's ground

Last 5 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Starting line-ups

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match