Mirassol – Sao Paulo: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Serie A · Brazil · Matchday 32

MirassolSerie A · #16

1-1Saturday, October 24

Sao PauloSerie A · #10

Match events

MirassolSao Paulo

7'⚽RafaelOwn goal
17'Djhordney Ferreira
26'Iago Amaral Borduchi
39'⚽Pedro LimaAssist: Damian Bobadilla
61'Carlos Eduardo de Oliveira Alve
64'⇄Gustavo SantanaOff: Lucas Moura

Chances to win

Mirassol%42

Draw%28

Sao Paulo%29

At a glance

Over 1.5

%47Over 2.5

%52Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Under 2.5.

%53Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 5.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%52

Not both score%48

Over 2.5%47

Mirassol win%42

Sao Paulo win%29

Draw%28

Why?

Mirassol: 2 or fewer goals in 6 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

MirassolW2-0L0-1D1-1W2-0D2-2

Sao PauloW1-0W2-1L0-2L1-2W1-0

Last 10 meetings

4Mirassol won

2Draw

4Sao Paulo won

3.0
Goals per game6/10
Over 2.54/10
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Mirassol · last 10 at home2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 5 games it led at half-time.

Sao Paulo · last 10 away0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 0 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Mirassol · last 10 at home5.2 corners, 2.1 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners5/10Over 5.5 corners

Sao Paulo · last 9 away4.9 corners, 2.2 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/9Over 4.5 corners5/9Over 5.5 corners4/9Over 0.5 cards9/9Over 1.5 cards6/9

Bench

Thomazella, Lucas Oliveira, Daniel Borges, Gabriel, Japa, Shaylon, Chico, Gustavo Silva, Wallisson, Fernandinho, Carlos Eduardo, Zé Roberto

Sao Paulo · 3-4-2-1

23Rafael

5R. Arboleda

28Newton

54Osorio Luis

7Lucas Moura

8Marcos Antônio

12Iago

16D. Bobadilla

32Pedro Lima

48D. Ferreira

10Luciano

Bench

Carlos Coronel, R. Tolói, Wendell, Lucas Ramon, Sabino, Pablo Maia, Pedro Ferreira, André Silva, Victor Sá, G. Santana, Lucca Marques Alencar, Ryan Francisco

Sao Paulo – MirassolFebruary 6, 2025 · Paulista - A14-1

Mirassol – Sao PauloJanuary 24, 2024 · Paulista - A11-1

Mirassol – Sao PauloMarch 13, 2022 · Paulista - A10-3

Sao Paulo – MirassolMay 18, 2021 · Paulista - A14-0

Mirassol – Sao PauloMay 9, 2021 · Paulista - A11-1

Sao Paulo – MirassolJuly 30, 2020 · Paulista - A12-3

Pablo MaiaOff: Marcos Antonio

67'⇄Shaylon Kallyson CardozoOff: Neto Moura

67'⇄Carlos EduardoOff: Bruno Santos de Oliveira

67'⇄WallissonOff: Denilson Alves Borges

70'Willian Estefani Machado

74'⇄FernandinhoOff: Alesson dos Santos Batista

77'⇄Pedro FerreiraOff: Djhordney Ferreira

77'⇄WendellOff: Iago Amaral Borduchi

78'⇄Jose RobertoOff: Carlos Eduardo de Oliveira Alve

87'⇄Victor SáOff: Damian Bobadilla

Statistics

45%Possession55%

1.32Expected goals1.13

18Total shots14

4Shots on target3

7Corners7

13Fouls13

1Offsides0

3Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

2Saves4

Sao Paulo: 2 or fewer goals in 7 of their last 10 away matches.

Mirassol scored 1.5 and conceded 1.2 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Sao Paulo scored 0.5 and conceded 1.6 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Mirassol · last 10 at home: 2 or fewer goals 6 times6/10

Sao Paulo · last 10 away: 2 or fewer goals 7 times7/10

Mirassol: 10 games · Sao Paulo: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.5Goals scored (avg)0.6

1.3Goals conceded (avg)1.5

2.8Total goals per gameleague 2.72.1

10/10Over 0.5league %9510/10

10/10Over 1.5league %787/10

4/10Over 2.5league %512/10

2/10Over 3.5league %251/10

1/10Over 4.5league %131/10

8/10Both scoreleague %595/10

2/10Clean sheets0/10

0/10Failed to score5/10

Mirassol: 10 games · Sao Paulo: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.1Goals scored (avg)0.9

1.1Goals conceded (avg)1.3

2.2Total goals per gameleague 2.72.2

10/10Over 0.5league %9510/10

9/10Over 1.5league %787/10

2/10Over 2.5league %513/10

1/10Over 3.5league %251/10

0/10Over 4.5league %131/10

5/10Both scoreleague %595/10

2/10Clean sheets2/10

3/10Failed to score3/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%27 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Mirassol win 410, 272 end level and Sao Paulo win 319. The actual result comes up 272 times in 1000.

%28 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.

1.32 – 1.13 The score the chances deserved (xG): Mirassol 1.32 – 1.13 Sao Paulo.

7.8

Man of the match: Pedro Lima (Sao Paulo), rated 7.8.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 10 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Mirassol · Serie A

Sao Paulo · Serie A

Mirassol · All games

Sao Paulo · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Mirassol's ground

Last 10 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match