Vasco DA Gama – Boca Juniors: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Semi-final

Vasco DA GamaSerie A · #13

1-3Wednesday, October 21

Boca JuniorsApertura - Group A · #2

Match events

Vasco DA GamaBoca Juniors

4'⚽Lautaro Di LolloAssist: Lautaro Blanco
34'⚽Miguel MerentielAssist: Sebastián Villa
37'Leandro Paredes
40'Thiago Mendes
45'⇄BrennerOff: David
45'⇄Marino HinestrozaOff: Adson

Chances to win

Vasco DA Gama%35

Draw%31

Boca Juniors%34

At a glance

Over 1.5

%37Over 2.5

%45Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Under 2.5.

%63Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Missed

Other scenarios

Not both score%55

Both score%45

Over 2.5%37

Vasco DA Gama win%35

Boca Juniors win%34

Draw%31

Why?

Vasco DA Gama: 2 or fewer goals in 7 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

Vasco DA GamaL0-1W1-0D0-0W2-1W5-0

Boca JuniorsW2-1L0-1D2-2W3-0W3-2

Last 1 meetings

1Vasco DA Gama won

0Draw

0Boca Juniors won

1.0
Goals per game0/1
Over 2.50/1
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Vasco DA Gama · last 10 at home3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Boca Juniors · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Vasco DA Gama · last 10 at home6.2 corners, 1.6 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/10Over 4.5 corners5/10Over 5.5 corners

Boca Juniors · last 7 away4.3 corners, 2.3 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners4/7Over 4.5 corners4/7Over 5.5 corners3/7Over 0.5 cards6/7Over 1.5 cards5/7

Bench

L. Brey, N. Figal, D. Gorosito, A. Costa, L. Paredes, C. Palacios, W. Alarcón, A. Velasco, M. Braida, Á. Romero, E. Valencia

Jose Luis RodriguezOff: Paulo Henrique

57'⇄Leandro ParedesOff: Rodrigo Battaglia

66'⚽Jose Luis Rodriguez

77'⇄Alan VelascoOff: Leonel Flores

77'⇄Enner ValenciaOff: Miguel Merentiel

88'⚽Leandro ParedesAssist: Milton Delgado

90'⇄Claudio SpinelliOff: Alan Lescano

90+2'⇄Ayrton Enrique CostaOff: Sebastián Villa

Statistics

59%Possession41%

0.63Expected goals0.57

12Total shots7

2Shots on target3

5Corners5

8Fouls14

0Offsides2

1Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

0Saves1

Boca Juniors: 2 or fewer goals in 5 of their last 10 away matches.

Vasco DA Gama scored 1.3 and conceded 0.5 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Boca Juniors scored 1.8 and conceded 1.1 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Vasco DA Gama · last 10 at home: 2 or fewer goals 7 times7/10

Boca Juniors · last 10 away: 2 or fewer goals 5 times5/10

Vasco DA Gama: 10 games · Boca Juniors: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.6Goals scored (avg)1.9

1.3Goals conceded (avg)0.9

2.9Total goals per gameleague 2.32.8

8/10Over 0.5league %899/10

7/10Over 1.5league %718/10

6/10Over 2.5league %395/10

5/10Over 3.5league %215/10

3/10Over 4.5league %81/10

4/10Both scoreleague %426/10

5/10Clean sheets4/10

3/10Failed to score1/10

Vasco DA Gama: 10 games · Boca Juniors: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.7Goals scored (avg)2.0

1.2Goals conceded (avg)0.9

2.9Total goals per gameleague 2.32.9

9/10Over 0.5league %8910/10

7/10Over 1.5league %718/10

6/10Over 2.5league %396/10

4/10Over 3.5league %214/10

3/10Over 4.5league %81/10

5/10Both scoreleague %426/10

4/10Clean sheets3/10

2/10Failed to score1/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%27 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Vasco DA Gama win 309, 419 end level and Boca Juniors win 271. The actual result comes up 271 times in 1000.

0.63 – 0.57 The score the chances deserved (xG): Vasco DA Gama 0.63 – 0.57 Boca Juniors.

%34 Our model's pre-match chance of an Boca Juniors win.

8.0

Man of the match: M. Merentiel (Boca Juniors), rated 8.0.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 1 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Vasco DA Gama · CONMEBOL Sudamericana

Boca Juniors · CONMEBOL Sudamericana

Vasco DA Gama · All games

Boca Juniors · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

Last 1 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match