Boca Juniors – Talleres Cordoba: probabilities, statistics and live score

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Boca JuniorsApertura - Group A · #2

2-1Saturday, October 17

Talleres CordobaApertura - Group A · #4

Match events

Boca JuniorsTalleres Cordoba

11'⚽Matias Alejandro GalarzaAssist: Rick Lima
18'⚽Miguel MerentielAssist: Lautaro Blanco
34'Milton Delgado
45'⇄Dylan GorositoOff: Leandro Lozano
49'⚽Leonel FloresAssist: Milton Delgado
53'⇄Mateo CaceresOff: Giovanni Baroni

Chances to win

Boca Juniors%61

Draw%25

Talleres Cordoba%15

At a glance

Over 1.5

%46Over 2.5

%44Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Boca Juniors win.

%61Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Not both score%56

Under 2.5%54

Over 2.5%46

Both score%44

Draw%25

Talleres Cordoba win%15

Why?

Boca Juniors won 7 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

Boca JuniorsL0-1D2-2W3-0W3-2W2-0

Talleres CordobaD0-0L0-1L1-3W2-1L0-1

Last 5 meetings

3Boca Juniors won

1Draw

1Talleres Cordoba won

1.4
Goals per game1/5
Over 2.51/5
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Boca Juniors · last 10 at home3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 4 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Talleres Cordoba · last 10 away1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Boca Juniors · last 10 at home6.3 corners, 1.5 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners8/10Over 4.5 corners7/10Over 5.5 corners6/10

Talleres Cordoba · last 10 away3.2 corners, 3.0 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners3/10Over 4.5 corners2/10Over 5.5 corners1/10Over 0.5 cards10/10Over 1.5 cards9/10

Bench

S. Barbi, T. Chamorro, A. Maidana, V. Fascendini, S. Fernández, J. Sforza, M. Caceres, J. Gallard, L. F. Ortiz, D. Valoyes, E. Chiavassa, V. Dávila

February 12, 2023 · Liga Profesional Argentina

Boca Juniors – Talleres CordobaJuly 17, 2022 · Liga Profesional Argentina1-0

Diego ValoyesOff: Rick Lima

59'⇄Valentín DávilaOff: Federico Fattori

72'⇄Carlos PalaciosOff: Ángel Romero

77'⇄Enner ValenciaOff: Miguel Merentiel

79'⇄Emiliano Miguel ChiavassaOff: Valentin Depietri

79'⇄Timoteo ChamorroOff: Augusto Schott

86'⇄Rodrigo Alexander BacidalupeOff: Leonel Flores

Statistics

51%Possession49%

1.04Expected goals0.45

13Total shots11

5Shots on target1

5Corners3

7Fouls12

1Offsides2

1Yellow cards1

0Red cards0

0Saves3

Boca Juniors scored 1.4 and conceded 0.5 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Talleres Cordoba scored 1.1 and conceded 1.1 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Boca Juniors · last 10 at home: 7 wins7/10

Boca Juniors: 10 games · Talleres Cordoba: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.6Goals scored (avg)1.2

0.5Goals conceded (avg)1.3

2.1Total goals per gameleague 2.12.5

10/10Over 0.5league %889/10

5/10Over 1.5league %657/10

4/10Over 2.5league %386/10

2/10Over 3.5league %163/10

0/10Over 4.5league %60/10

4/10Both scoreleague %476/10

5/10Clean sheets2/10

1/10Failed to score3/10

Boca Juniors: 10 games · Talleres Cordoba: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.0Goals scored (avg)0.8

0.9Goals conceded (avg)1.5

2.9Total goals per gameleague 2.12.3

10/10Over 0.5league %888/10

8/10Over 1.5league %656/10

6/10Over 2.5league %386/10

4/10Over 3.5league %163/10

1/10Over 4.5league %60/10

6/10Both scoreleague %476/10

3/10Clean sheets2/10

1/10Failed to score4/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%50 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Boca Juniors win 498, 344 end level and Talleres Cordoba win 158. The actual result comes up 498 times in 1000.

1.04 – 0.45 The score the chances deserved (xG): Boca Juniors 1.04 – 0.45 Talleres Cordoba.

8.2

Man of the match: M. Galarza (Talleres Cordoba), rated 8.2.

%61 Our model's pre-match chance of a Boca Juniors win.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 5 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Boca Juniors · Liga Profesional Argentina

Talleres Cordoba · Liga Profesional Argentina

Boca Juniors · All games

Talleres Cordoba · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Boca Juniors's ground

Last 5 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match