1. FC Köln – Union Berlin: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·DFB Pokal · Germany · Round of 32

1. FC KölnBundesliga · #12

5-0Tuesday, October 27

Union BerlinBundesliga · #17

Match events

1. FC KölnUnion Berlin

32'⚽Said El MalaAssist: Linton Maina
45'⇄Derrick KöhnOff: Tom Rothe
48'Leopold Querfeld
51'⚽Linton MainaAssist: Said El Mala
57'⇄Livan BurcuOff: Tim Skarke
58'⇄Emmanuel Latte LathOff: Mekhi Gray

Chances to win

1. FC Köln%51

Draw%25

Union Berlin%24

At a glance

Over 1.5

%58Over 2.5

%59Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%58Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%59

1. FC Köln win%51

Under 2.5%42

Not both score%41

Draw%25

Union Berlin win%24

Why?

1. FC Köln: 3+ goals in 8 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

1. FC KölnD0-0L0-1W2-1L1-2D1-1

Union BerlinD1-1D0-0W1-0L0-7L1-3

Last 15 meetings

31. FC Köln won

3Draw

9Union Berlin won

2.5
Goals per game8/15
Over 2.58/15
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

1. FC Köln · last 10 at home1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Union Berlin · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).5/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 1 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

1. FC Köln · last 10 at home5.9 corners, 2.3 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners8/10Over 4.5 corners8/10Over 5.5 corners7/10

Union Berlin · last 10 away3.5 corners, 2.5 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners4/10Over 4.5 corners3/10Over 5.5 corners2/10Over 0.5 cards10/10Over 1.5 cards8/10

Bench

F. Rønnow, M. Friedrich, D. Köhn, C. Trimmel, A. Kemlein, K. Imeri, Livan Burcu, M. LjubiÄiÄ, E. Latte Lath

Union Berlin – 1. FC KölnMarch 4, 2023 · Bundesliga0-0

1. FC Köln – Union BerlinSeptember 11, 2022 · Bundesliga0-1

Union Berlin – 1. FC KölnApril 1, 2022 · Bundesliga1-0

1. FC Köln – Union BerlinNovember 7, 2021 · Bundesliga2-2

Union Berlin – 1. FC KölnMarch 13, 2021 · Bundesliga2-1

1. FC Köln – Union BerlinNovember 22, 2020 · Bundesliga1-2

Union Berlin – 1. FC KölnAugust 22, 2020 · Friendlies Clubs1-2

1. FC Köln – Union BerlinAugust 22, 2020 · Friendlies Clubs2-1

1. FC Köln – Union BerlinJune 13, 2020 · Bundesliga1-2

Union Berlin – 1. FC KölnDecember 8, 2019 · Bundesliga2-0

Union Berlin – 1. FC KölnJanuary 31, 2019 · 2. Bundesliga2-0

Said El MalaAssist: Marius Bülter

63'⇄Sebastian Soraas SebulonsenOff: Alessio Castro-Montes

68'⇄Aljoscha KemleinOff: András Schäfer

71'⇄Jan ThielmannOff: Linton Maina

72'⇄Ísak Bergmann JóhannessonOff: Mikey Moore

75'⇄Marin LjubičićOff: Woo-Yeong Jeong

78'⚽Ísak Bergmann JóhannessonAssist: Marius Bülter

81'⇄Gideon MensahOff: Borna Sosa

81'⇄Reigan HeskeyOff: Said El Mala

84'Sebastian Soraas Sebulonsen

88'⚽Sebastian Soraas SebulonsenAssist: Reigan Heskey

Statistics

55%Possession45%

3.04Expected goals1.1

14Total shots17

8Shots on target4

3Corners4

8Fouls16

0Offsides1

1Yellow cards3

0Red cards0

4Saves3

Union Berlin: 3+ goals in 7 of their last 10 away matches.

1. FC Köln scored 1.7 and conceded 1.7 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Union Berlin scored 1.1 and conceded 2.6 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

1. FC Köln · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 8 times8/10

Union Berlin · last 10 away: 3+ goals 7 times7/10

1. FC Köln: 10 games · Union Berlin: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.0Goals scored (avg)1.1

1.5Goals conceded (avg)3.0

3.5Total goals per gameleague 4.14.1

9/10Over 0.5league %9810/10

9/10Over 1.5league %969/10

8/10Over 2.5league %718/10

5/10Over 3.5league %568/10

3/10Over 4.5league %383/10

8/10Both scoreleague %505/10

2/10Clean sheets1/10

1/10Failed to score4/10

1. FC Köln: 10 games · Union Berlin: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.6Goals scored (avg)1.4

1.7Goals conceded (avg)2.5

3.3Total goals per gameleague 4.13.9

9/10Over 0.5league %989/10

8/10Over 1.5league %968/10

7/10Over 2.5league %717/10

4/10Over 3.5league %567/10

4/10Over 4.5league %384/10

7/10Both scoreleague %504/10

2/10Clean sheets3/10

2/10Failed to score4/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

3.04 – 1.10 The score the chances deserved (xG): 1. FC Köln 3.04 – 1.10 Union Berlin.

%76 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), 1. FC Köln win 761, 134 end level and Union Berlin win 105. The actual result comes up 761 times in 1000.

9.7

Man of the match: S. El Mala (1. FC Köln), rated 9.7.

%51 Our model's pre-match chance of a 1. FC Köln win.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 15 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

1. FC Köln · All games

Union Berlin · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at 1. FC Köln's ground

Last 15 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match