Union Berlin – SV Elversberg: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Bundesliga · Germany · Matchday 5

Union BerlinBundesliga · #17

1-0Saturday, October 10

SV ElversbergBundesliga · #5

Match events

Union BerlinSV Elversberg

7'Janik Haberer
21'Tim Skarke
58'⇄Livan BurcuOff: Kastriot Imeri
59'⇄Maurice KrattenmacherOff: Tom Zimmerschied
70'⇄Cole CampbellOff: Noel Futkeu
71'⇄David MokwaOff: Noah Darvich

Chances to win

Union Berlin%39

Draw%27

SV Elversberg%35

At a glance

Over 1.5

%59Over 2.5

%62Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Both score.

%62Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Missed

Other scenarios

Over 2.5%59

Under 2.5%41

Union Berlin win%39

Not both score%38

SV Elversberg win%35

Draw%27

Why?

Union Berlin: both sides scored in 7 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

Union BerlinL0-7L1-3L0-4D3-3W4-2

SV ElversbergD0-0L1-2W4-3W3-2W3-1

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Union Berlin · last 10 at home1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

SV Elversberg · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Union Berlin · last 10 at home5.0 corners, 2.2 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners8/10Over 4.5 corners5/10Over 5.5 corners

SV Elversberg · last 10 away4.8 corners, 1.9 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners8/10Over 4.5 corners5/10Over 5.5 corners4/10Over 0.5 cards9/10Over 1.5 cards7/10

Bench

M. Raab, L. Querfeld, D. Köhn, C. Trimmel, A. Kemlein, O. Burke, Livan Burcu, M. LjubiÄiÄ

SV Elversberg · 4-2-3-1

20N. Kristof

19L. Pinckert

21L. Günther

26L. Sirch

31M. Rohr

8Ł. Poręba

10Noah Darvich

25L. Petkov

29T. Zimmerschied

43F. Keidel

9N. Futkeu

Bench

T. Boss, N. Mickelson, F. Le Joncour, A. Condé, M. Krattenmacher, F. Schmahl, L. Schnellbacher, William Cole Campbell, D. Mokwa

Nicholas MickelsonOff: Lasse Günther

77'⇄Christopher TrimmelOff: Michel Aebischer

78'⇄M. GrayOff: Woo-Yeong Jeong

78'⇄Oliver BurkeOff: Tim Skarke

86'⇄Frederik SchmahlOff: Luca Sirch

90+2'Maurice Krattenmacher

90+2'⇄Aljoscha KemleinOff: András Schäfer

Statistics

43%Possession57%

1.59Expected goals0.28

19Total shots7

7Shots on target2

7Corners3

14Fouls9

3Offsides7

2Yellow cards1

0Red cards0

2Saves5

SV Elversberg: both sides scored in 8 of their last 10 away matches.

Union Berlin scored 1.5 and conceded 1.9 per game in their last 10 home matches.

SV Elversberg scored 1.8 and conceded 1.6 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Union Berlin · last 10 at home: both scored 7 times7/10

SV Elversberg · last 10 away: both scored 8 times8/10

Union Berlin: 10 games · SV Elversberg: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.5Goals scored (avg)1.3

1.5Goals conceded (avg)1.9

3.0Total goals per gameleague 3.63.2

9/10Over 0.5league %929/10

7/10Over 1.5league %808/10

6/10Over 2.5league %725/10

5/10Over 3.5league %555/10

2/10Over 4.5league %362/10

6/10Both scoreleague %586/10

4/10Clean sheets1/10

1/10Failed to score4/10

Union Berlin: 10 games · SV Elversberg: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.4Goals scored (avg)1.9

2.5Goals conceded (avg)1.9

3.9Total goals per gameleague 3.63.8

9/10Over 0.5league %929/10

8/10Over 1.5league %808/10

7/10Over 2.5league %727/10

7/10Over 3.5league %556/10

4/10Over 4.5league %364/10

4/10Both scoreleague %586/10

3/10Clean sheets1/10

4/10Failed to score4/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%71 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Union Berlin win 708, 231 end level and SV Elversberg win 61. The actual result comes up 708 times in 1000.

1.59 – 0.28 The score the chances deserved (xG): Union Berlin 1.59 – 0.28 SV Elversberg.

19 – 7 Shots: Union Berlin 19 – 7 SV Elversberg.

7 – 2 Shots on target: Union Berlin 7 – 2 SV Elversberg.

2 more numbers for this match in Premium

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Union Berlin · Bundesliga

SV Elversberg · Bundesliga

Union Berlin · All games

SV Elversberg · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match