FC Augsburg – Union Berlin: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Bundesliga · Germany · Matchday 7

FC AugsburgBundesliga · #9

1-1Saturday, October 24

Union BerlinBundesliga · #17

Match events

FC AugsburgUnion Berlin

12'⇄Jeffrey GouweleeuwOff: Calvin Marc Brackelmann
19'Felix Uduokhai
25'⇄Leopold QuerfeldOff: Livan Burcu
31'Janik Haberer
36'Leopold Querfeld
45'⇄Mekhi GrayOff: Tim Skarke

Chances to win

FC Augsburg%52

Draw%23

Union Berlin%25

At a glance

Over 1.5

%64Over 2.5

%65Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%64Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Missed

Other scenarios

Both score%65

FC Augsburg win%52

Under 2.5%36

Not both score%35

Union Berlin win%25

Draw%23

Why?

FC Augsburg: 3+ goals in 7 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

FC AugsburgL3-4D2-2L2-3D2-2W4-1

Union BerlinD0-0W1-0L0-7L1-3L0-4

Last 15 meetings

6FC Augsburg won

4Draw

5Union Berlin won

2.2
Goals per game5/15
Over 2.56/15
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

FC Augsburg · last 10 at home3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Union Berlin · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).5/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 1 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

FC Augsburg · last 10 at home5.1 corners, 2.2 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners5/10Over 5.5 corners

Union Berlin · last 10 away3.7 corners, 2.1 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners4/10Over 4.5 corners3/10Over 5.5 corners2/10Over 0.5 cards9/10Over 1.5 cards7/10

Bench

N. Labrović, J. Gouweleeuw, Seol Young-Woo, M. Kömür, Y. Keitel, R. Fellhauer, T. Schnitzer, Rodrigo Ribeiro, U. Ogundu

Union Berlin · 4-2-3-1

1F. Rønnow

2F. Uduokhai

4Z. Van Den Bosch

15T. Rothe

19J. Haberer

8R. Khedira

9Livan Burcu

11Jeong Woo-Yeong

13A. Schäfer

20M. Aebischer

21T. Skarke

Bench

M. Raab, L. Querfeld, D. Köhn, C. Trimmel, A. Kemlein, O. Burke, M. LjubiÄiÄ, E. Latte Lath, M. Gray

FC Augsburg – Union BerlinApril 12, 2024 · Bundesliga2-0

Union Berlin – FC AugsburgNovember 25, 2023 · Bundesliga1-1

FC Augsburg – Union BerlinMay 6, 2023 · Bundesliga1-0

FC Augsburg – Union BerlinJanuary 7, 2023 · Friendlies Clubs0-1

Union Berlin – FC AugsburgJanuary 7, 2023 · Friendlies Clubs1-0

Union Berlin – FC AugsburgNovember 9, 2022 · Bundesliga2-2

FC Augsburg – Union BerlinFebruary 5, 2022 · Bundesliga2-0

Union Berlin – FC AugsburgSeptember 11, 2021 · Bundesliga0-0

FC Augsburg – Union BerlinJanuary 23, 2021 · Bundesliga2-1

Union Berlin – FC AugsburgSeptember 19, 2020 · Bundesliga1-3

Union Berlin – FC AugsburgJanuary 25, 2020 · Bundesliga2-0

71'⚽Han-Noah MassengoAssist: Fabian Rieder

72'⇄Robin FellhauerOff: Marius Wolf

72'⇄Mert KömürOff: Arijon Ibrahimovic

76'⇄Oliver BurkeOff: Woo-Yeong Jeong

89'⇄Uchenna OgunduOff: Han-Noah Massengo

89'⇄Rodrigo RibeiroOff: Anton Kade

90+5'⇄Aljoscha KemleinOff: Michel Aebischer

Statistics

69%Possession31%

1.91Expected goals1.24

27Total shots6

5Shots on target1

5Corners1

10Fouls9

0Offsides2

0Yellow cards3

1Red cards1

0Saves4

Union Berlin: 3+ goals in 8 of their last 10 away matches.

FC Augsburg scored 2.0 and conceded 1.4 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Union Berlin scored 1.2 and conceded 2.8 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

FC Augsburg · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 7 times7/10

Union Berlin · last 10 away: 3+ goals 8 times8/10

FC Augsburg: 10 games · Union Berlin: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.9Goals scored (avg)1.1

1.4Goals conceded (avg)3.0

3.3Total goals per gameleague 3.64.1

10/10Over 0.5league %9210/10

9/10Over 1.5league %809/10

6/10Over 2.5league %728/10

5/10Over 3.5league %558/10

1/10Over 4.5league %363/10

7/10Both scoreleague %585/10

3/10Clean sheets1/10

0/10Failed to score4/10

FC Augsburg: 10 games · Union Berlin: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.3Goals scored (avg)1.4

1.9Goals conceded (avg)2.5

4.2Total goals per gameleague 3.63.9

10/10Over 0.5league %929/10

10/10Over 1.5league %808/10

8/10Over 2.5league %727/10

7/10Over 3.5league %557/10

4/10Over 4.5league %364/10

7/10Both scoreleague %584/10

2/10Clean sheets3/10

1/10Failed to score4/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%22 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), FC Augsburg win 530, 223 end level and Union Berlin win 247. The actual result comes up 223 times in 1000.

%23 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.

1.91 – 1.24 The score the chances deserved (xG): FC Augsburg 1.91 – 1.24 Union Berlin.

25 – 6 Shots: FC Augsburg 25 – 6 Union Berlin.

2 more numbers for this match in Premium

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 15 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

FC Augsburg · Bundesliga

Union Berlin · Bundesliga

FC Augsburg · All games

Union Berlin · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at FC Augsburg's ground

Last 15 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match