Kilmarnock – ST Johnstone: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Premiership · Scotland · Matchday 12

KilmarnockPremier League · #11

2-2Saturday, October 31

ST JohnstonePremier League · #7

Match events

KilmarnockST Johnstone

12'VARToby StewardCard upgrade confirmed
13'Toby Steward
14'⇄Ross SinclairOff: Taylor Steven
14'⚽Cathal McCarthyAssist: Djenairo Daniels
35'Jason Holt
35'Matty Todd

Chances to win

Kilmarnock%40

Draw%26

ST Johnstone%33

At a glance

Over 1.5

%56Over 2.5

%60Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

Last 5 matches

KilmarnockL1-3L0-3W3-2L1-3D1-1

ST JohnstoneD2-2L0-4D1-1W1-0D

Last 15 meetings

5Kilmarnock won

1Draw

9ST Johnstone won

2.7
Goals per game8/15
Over 2.58/15
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Kilmarnock · last 10 at home1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/10games led at half-time.Won 0 of the 1 games it led at half-time.

ST Johnstone · last 10 away3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Kilmarnock · last 8 at home5.1 corners, 2.1 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/8Over 4.5 corners6/8Over 5.5 corners4/8Over 0.5 cards

ST Johnstone · last 6 away2.8 corners, 1.0 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners2/6Over 4.5 corners1/6Over 5.5 corners0/6Over 0.5 cards4/6Over 1.5 cards2/6

Bench

R. Sinclair, M. Foulds, D. Finlayson, A. Brookfield, L. Chalmers, M. Tait, J. Campbell, J. Gullan, R. Paton

Kilmarnock – ST JohnstoneAugust 11, 2024 · Premiership0-3

ST Johnstone – KilmarnockApril 13, 2024 · Premiership0-2

Kilmarnock – ST JohnstoneDecember 23, 2023 · Premiership2-1

ST Johnstone – KilmarnockNovember 1, 2023 · Premiership2-1

Kilmarnock – ST JohnstoneMay 20, 2023 · Premiership0-1

Kilmarnock – ST JohnstoneMarch 18, 2023 · Premiership1-1

ST Johnstone – KilmarnockOctober 29, 2022 · Premiership1-0

Kilmarnock – ST JohnstoneOctober 5, 2022 · Premiership2-1

Kilmarnock – ST JohnstoneJanuary 30, 2021 · Premiership2-3

ST Johnstone – KilmarnockNovember 6, 2020 · Premiership1-0

Kilmarnock – ST JohnstoneAugust 15, 2020 · Premiership1-2

40'⚽Danny schmidtAssist: Enes Alic

41'⚽Djenairo DanielsAssist: Joe Hugill

45'⇄Matthew FouldsOff: Matty Todd

45'⇄Josh CampbellOff: Josh Fowler

58'⇄Nicky ClescencoOff: Erik Ring

58'⇄Tyreece John-JulesOff: Djenairo Daniels

63'⇄Logan ChalmersOff: Jason Holt

65'⚽Joel Cotterill

67'⇄Daniel FinlaysonOff: Božo Mikulić

71'⇄Michael Schjonning-LarsenOff: Robbie Deas

Statistics

63%Possession37%

3.39Expected goals0.8

22Total shots6

6Shots on target3

10Corners2

12Fouls10

3Offsides1

3Yellow cards2

0Red cards1

1Saves4

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Both score.

%60Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Over 2.5%56

Under 2.5%44

Kilmarnock win%40

Not both score%40

ST Johnstone win%33

Draw%26

Why?

Kilmarnock · last 10 at home: both scored 6 times6/10

Kilmarnock: both sides scored in 6 of their last 10 home matches.
ST Johnstone: both sides scored in 3 of their last 10 away matches.
Kilmarnock scored 1.3 and conceded 1.7 per game in their last 10 home matches.
ST Johnstone scored 1.2 and conceded 1.1 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Kilmarnock: 10 games · ST Johnstone: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.2Goals scored (avg)1.0

1.8Goals conceded (avg)1.1

3.0Total goals per gameleague 2.82.1

9/10Over 0.5league %9710/10

7/10Over 1.5league %786/10

5/10Over 2.5league %593/10

5/10Over 3.5league %292/10

3/10Over 4.5league %100/10

6/10Both scoreleague %573/10

2/10Clean sheets4/10

3/10Failed to score3/10

Kilmarnock: 10 games · ST Johnstone: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.0Goals scored (avg)1.1

1.6Goals conceded (avg)1.5

2.6Total goals per gameleague 2.82.6

9/10Over 0.5league %9710/10

7/10Over 1.5league %788/10

5/10Over 2.5league %595/10

4/10Over 3.5league %293/10

1/10Over 4.5league %100/10

6/10Both scoreleague %577/10

2/10Clean sheets1/10

3/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%9 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Kilmarnock win 853, 94 end level and ST Johnstone win 53. The actual result comes up 94 times in 1000.

3.39 – 0.80 The score the chances deserved (xG): Kilmarnock 3.39 – 0.80 ST Johnstone.

%26 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.

22 – 6 Shots: Kilmarnock 22 – 6 ST Johnstone.

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Halves
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Corners
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When they score
When they concede

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

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Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

Last 5 matches

Last 15 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Kilmarnock's ground

Last 15 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Kilmarnock · Premiership

ST Johnstone · Premiership

Kilmarnock · All games

ST Johnstone · All games

Statistics

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match