Aberdeen – ST Johnstone: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Premiership · Scotland · Matchday 8

AberdeenPremier League · #10

0-1Sunday, October 11

ST JohnstonePremier League · #7

Match events

AberdeenST Johnstone

11'VARJosh FowlerPenalty confirmed
14'⚽Josh FowlerPenalty
35'⇄Lewis SmithOff: Ayoub Mouloua
58'⇄Joel CotterillOff: Ruari Paton
59'⇄Tony YoganeOff: Findlay Marshall
59'⇄Stuart ArmstrongOff: Connor Patrick Ronan

Chances to win

Aberdeen%43

Draw%28

ST Johnstone%29

At a glance

Over 1.5

%49Over 2.5

%54Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Both score.

%54Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 5.Missed

Other scenarios

Under 2.5%51

Over 2.5%49

Not both score%46

Aberdeen win%43

ST Johnstone win%29

Draw%28

Why?

Aberdeen: both sides scored in 2 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

AberdeenD1-1W4-0D1-1D0-0L0-3

ST JohnstoneD1-1L0-1W2-1D1-1L1-2

Last 10 meetings

5Aberdeen won

4Draw

1ST Johnstone won

1.4
Goals per game1/10
Over 2.53/10
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Aberdeen · last 10 at home4/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 5 of the 5 games it led at half-time.

ST Johnstone · last 10 away4/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Aberdeen · last 8 at home6.0 corners, 2.4 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/8Over 4.5 corners5/8Over 5.5 corners5/8Over 0.5 cards

ST Johnstone · last 4 away3.3 corners, 1.0 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners2/4Over 4.5 corners1/4Over 5.5 corners0/4Over 0.5 cards3/4Over 1.5 cards1/4

Bench

R. Sinclair, B. Mikulić, L. Chalmers, J. Cotterill, J. Campbell, T. Steven, J. Gullan, K. Fotheringham, D. Schmidt

Aberdeen – ST JohnstoneFebruary 28, 2024 · Premiership0-2

ST Johnstone – AberdeenJanuary 24, 2024 · Premiership1-1

Aberdeen – ST JohnstoneOctober 8, 2023 · Premiership0-0

ST Johnstone – AberdeenApril 1, 2023 · Premiership0-1

Aberdeen – ST JohnstoneJanuary 7, 2023 · Premiership2-0

ST Johnstone – AberdeenAugust 20, 2022 · Premiership0-1

67'⇄Taylor StevenOff: Matty Todd

68'⇄Hicham MahouOff: Nesta Guinness-Walker

78'⇄Josh CampbellOff: Sam Stanton

78'⇄Jamie GullanOff: Josh Fowler

90'⇄Afeez Aremu OlalekanOff: Christopher Cadden

90+1'⇄Božo MikulićOff: Daniel Finlayson

Statistics

65%Possession35%

1.27Expected goals1.12

22Total shots5

5Shots on target1

13Corners2

7Fouls10

0Yellow cards0

0Red cards0

0Saves5

ST Johnstone: both sides scored in 3 of their last 10 away matches.

Aberdeen scored 1.5 and conceded 0.5 per game in their last 10 home matches.

ST Johnstone scored 1.3 and conceded 0.7 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Aberdeen: 10 games · ST Johnstone: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.3Goals scored (avg)1.0

0.8Goals conceded (avg)1.1

2.1Total goals per gameleague 2.82.1

9/10Over 0.5league %9710/10

6/10Over 1.5league %786/10

5/10Over 2.5league %593/10

1/10Over 3.5league %292/10

0/10Over 4.5league %100/10

3/10Both scoreleague %573/10

3/10Clean sheets4/10

5/10Failed to score3/10

Aberdeen: 10 games · ST Johnstone: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.1Goals scored (avg)1.1

1.2Goals conceded (avg)1.5

2.3Total goals per gameleague 2.82.6

9/10Over 0.5league %9710/10

6/10Over 1.5league %788/10

4/10Over 2.5league %595/10

3/10Over 3.5league %293/10

1/10Over 4.5league %100/10

4/10Both scoreleague %577/10

2/10Clean sheets1/10

5/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%33 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Aberdeen win 398, 276 end level and ST Johnstone win 325. The actual result comes up 325 times in 1000.

%29 Our model's pre-match chance of an ST Johnstone win.

22 – 5 Shots: Aberdeen 22 – 5 ST Johnstone.

13 – 2 Corners: Aberdeen 13 – 2 ST Johnstone.

3 more numbers for this match in Premium

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 10 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Aberdeen · Premiership

ST Johnstone · Premiership

Aberdeen · All games

ST Johnstone · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Aberdeen's ground

Last 10 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match