Falkirk – Kilmarnock: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Premiership · Scotland · Matchday 10

FalkirkPremier League · #6

3-0Saturday, October 24

KilmarnockPremier League · #11

Match events

FalkirkKilmarnock

29'⚽Cathal McCarthyOwn goal
38'⚽Jacob MurrellAssist: Ryan Strain
46'George Stanger
62'⇄Ieuan Gwyn OwenOff: Greg Kiltie
67'⇄Nicky ClescencoOff: Erik Ring
67'⇄Mark O'HaraOff: Aaron Tshibola

Chances to win

Falkirk%51

Draw%24

Kilmarnock%25

At a glance

Over 1.5

%58Over 2.5

%59Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%58Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%59

Falkirk win%51

Under 2.5%42

Not both score%41

Kilmarnock win%25

Draw%24

Why?

Falkirk: 3+ goals in 7 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

FalkirkW2-1L1-2D1-1W2-1D1-1

KilmarnockW3-2L1-3D1-1W1-0D1-1

Last 6 meetings

4Falkirk won

0Draw

2Kilmarnock won

3.8
Goals per game5/6
Over 2.54/6
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Falkirk · last 10 at home1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).6/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Kilmarnock · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Falkirk · last 9 at home4.3 corners, 2.0 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/9Over 4.5 corners4/9Over 5.5 corners3/9

Kilmarnock · last 9 away4.9 corners, 2.4 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/9Over 4.5 corners5/9Over 5.5 corners3/9Over 0.5 cards9/9Over 1.5 cards6/9

21M. Schjønning-Larsen

Bench

N. Mantl, Michael-John Kamson-Kamara, R. Deas, J. Meier, M. O'Hara, R. McKenzie, N. Cleșcenco, I. Owen, D. Daniels

Kilmarnock – FalkirkSeptember 4, 2021 · Challenge Cup3-1

Falkirk – KilmarnockOctober 6, 2020 · League Cup3-0

68'⚽George StangerOwn goal

76'⇄Michael-John Kamson-KamaraOff: Cathal McCarthy

76'⇄Djenairo DanielsOff: Joe Hugill

83'⇄Conor McLeodOff: Ethan Ross

83'⇄Ben ParkinsonOff: Jacob Murrell

84'⇄Calvin FodreyOff: Owen Eames

86'⇄Finn YeatsOff: Finley Frank Barbrook

90+1'⇄Craig SibbaldOff: Deniss Meļņiks

Statistics

63%Possession37%

2.08Expected goals1.89

18Total shots10

8Shots on target0

9Corners7

11Fouls12

0Offsides1

0Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

0Saves7

Kilmarnock: 3+ goals in 5 of their last 10 away matches.

Falkirk scored 1.4 and conceded 2.2 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Kilmarnock scored 1.3 and conceded 1.2 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Falkirk · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 7 times7/10

Kilmarnock · last 10 away: 3+ goals 5 times5/10

Falkirk: 10 games · Kilmarnock: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.4Goals scored (avg)1.4

1.6Goals conceded (avg)1.4

3.0Total goals per gameleague 2.82.8

10/10Over 0.5league %978/10

8/10Over 1.5league %786/10

7/10Over 2.5league %596/10

2/10Over 3.5league %294/10

1/10Over 4.5league %102/10

5/10Both scoreleague %574/10

3/10Clean sheets5/10

2/10Failed to score3/10

Falkirk: 10 games · Kilmarnock: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.3Goals scored (avg)1.0

1.0Goals conceded (avg)1.6

2.3Total goals per gameleague 2.82.6

9/10Over 0.5league %979/10

8/10Over 1.5league %787/10

6/10Over 2.5league %595/10

0/10Over 3.5league %294/10

0/10Over 4.5league %101/10

7/10Both scoreleague %576/10

3/10Clean sheets2/10

1/10Failed to score3/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

2.08 – 1.89 The score the chances deserved (xG): Falkirk 2.08 – 1.89 Kilmarnock.

%43 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Falkirk win 433, 207 end level and Kilmarnock win 360. The actual result comes up 433 times in 1000.

8 – 0 Shots on target: Falkirk 8 – 0 Kilmarnock.

8.1

Man of the match: J. Murrell (Falkirk), rated 8.1.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 6 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Falkirk · Premiership

Kilmarnock · Premiership

Falkirk · All games

Kilmarnock · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Falkirk's ground

Last 6 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match