Falkirk – Dundee: probabilities, statistics and live score

FalkirkPremier League · #6

1-2Saturday, October 10

DundeePremier League · #4

Match events

FalkirkDundee

31'⚽Jacob MurrellPenalty
52'⚽Owen BevanAssist: Drey Wright
70'⇄Finn YeatsOff: Jacob Murrell
70'⇄Ben ParkinsonOff: Ben krauhaus
85'⇄Craig SibbaldOff: Finley Frank Barbrook
90+1'⇄Conor McLeodOff: Ethan Ross

Chances to win

Falkirk%49

Draw%26

Dundee%25

At a glance

Over 1.5

%54Over 2.5

%57Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

Last 5 matches

FalkirkD1-1W2-1D1-1L1-2L1-2

DundeeW2-1L1-2D1-1L1-2W

Last 3 meetings

2Falkirk won

0Draw

1Dundee won

1.7
Goals per game1/3
Over 2.51/3
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Falkirk · last 10 at home1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).6/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Dundee · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Falkirk · last 9 at home4.8 corners, 2.1 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/9Over 4.5 corners5/9Over 5.5 corners4/9

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%54Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 5.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%57

Falkirk win%49

Under 2.5%46

Not both score%43

Draw%26

Dundee win%25

Why?

Falkirk · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 7 times7/10

Dundee · last 10 away: 3+ goals 6 times6/10

Falkirk: 3+ goals in 7 of their last 10 home matches.
Dundee: 3+ goals in 6 of their last 10 away matches.
Falkirk scored 1.4 and conceded 2.2 per game in their last 10 home matches.
Dundee scored 1.2 and conceded 1.6 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Falkirk: 10 games · Dundee: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.4Goals scored (avg)1.3

1.6Goals conceded (avg)1.6

3.0Total goals per gameleague 2.82.9

10/10Over 0.5league %9710/10

8/10Over 1.5league %789/10

7/10Over 2.5league %597/10

2/10Over 3.5league %292/10

1/10Over 4.5league %101/10

5/10Both scoreleague %575/10

3/10Clean sheets2/10

2/10Failed to score3/10

Falkirk: 10 games · Dundee: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.3Goals scored (avg)1.5

1.0Goals conceded (avg)1.5

2.3Total goals per gameleague 2.83.0

9/10Over 0.5league %9710/10

8/10Over 1.5league %7810/10

6/10Over 2.5league %598/10

0/10Over 3.5league %292/10

0/10Over 4.5league %100/10

7/10Both scoreleague %578/10

3/10Clean sheets1/10

1/10Failed to score1/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%28 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Falkirk win 511, 209 end level and Dundee win 280. The actual result comes up 280 times in 1000.

90+1'

Ashley Hay decided it in minute 90.

%26 Our model's pre-match chance of an Dundee win.

2.12 – 1.54 The score the chances deserved (xG): Falkirk 2.12 – 1.54 Dundee.

3 more numbers for this match in Premium

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

Last 5 matches

Last 3 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Falkirk's ground

Last 3 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Falkirk · Premiership

Dundee · Premiership

Falkirk · All games

Dundee · All games

Statistics

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match