Marseille – Le Havre: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Ligue 1 · France · Matchday 8

MarseilleLigue 1 · #9

4-3Sunday, October 25

Le HavreLigue 1 · #18

Match events

MarseilleLe Havre

5'⚽CJ Egan-RileyAssist: Emerson Palmieri
33'⚽Timothy Weah
50'⚽Igor PaixãoAssist: Amine Gouiri
55'⚽Himad Abdelli
61'⇄Sota NakamuraOff: Mbwana Ally Samatta
61'⇄Josh MajaOff: Rassoul Ndiaye
77'

Chances to win

Marseille%64

Draw%20

Le Havre%16

At a glance

Over 1.5

%63Over 2.5

%58Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Marseille win.

%64Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Over 2.5%63

Both score%58

Not both score%42

Under 2.5%37

Draw%20

Le Havre win%16

Why?

Marseille won 4 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

MarseilleL0-1W5-2L0-1W2-0L1-2

Le HavreL1-3L0-1L2-3D0-0L1-2

Last 7 meetings

6Marseille won

1Draw

0Le Havre won

3.9
Goals per game5/7
Over 2.55/7
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Marseille · last 10 at home3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Le Havre · last 10 away1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Marseille · last 10 at home5.9 corners, 2.1 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners8/10Over 4.5 corners7/10Over 5.5 corners6/10

Le Havre · last 10 away4.2 corners, 2.0 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners2/10Over 0.5 cards10/10Over 1.5 cards5/10

Bench

T. Vermot, B. Meité, U. Garcia, K. Bezahaf, A. Gomes, G. Kondogbia, N. Maupay, K. Abdallah

Le Havre

93G. Gallon

5A. Touba

15A. Seko

6J. Mwanga

7A. Richardson

14R. Ndiaye

26S. Ebonog

20D. Ouziad

25M. Samatta

27E. Koffi Vinette

38R. Fofana

Bench

A. Bodart, V. Sasso, G. Zohouri, D. Mosengo, J. Maja, K. Mizuta, S. Nakamura

Le Havre – MarseilleMay 19, 2024 · Ligue 11-2

Marseille – Le HavreOctober 8, 2023 · Ligue 13-0

Marseille – Le HavreJanuary 22, 2012 · Coupe de France1-1

Daren MosengoOff: Amir Richardson

77'⇄Lamine N'DiayeOff: Enzo Koffi

77'⚽Josh MajaPenalty

78'⇄Keyliane AbdallahOff: Amine Harit

78'⇄Neal MaupayOff: Amine Gouiri

84'⇄Kaito MizutaOff: Rayan Fofana

84'⇄Angel GomesOff: Pierre-Emile Højbjerg

84'⇄Nouhoum KamissokoOff: Himad Abdelli

86'⚽Lamine N'Diaye

89'⚽Josh MajaAssist: Kaito Mizuta

90+2'⇄Ulisses GarciaOff: Igor Paixão

90+6'VARKaito MizutaPenalty cancelled

90+11'Lamine N'Diaye

Statistics

53%Possession47%

1.63Expected goals3.1

11Total shots21

5Shots on target7

4Corners3

15Fouls11

3Offsides1

1Yellow cards3

0Red cards0

3Saves1

Marseille scored 1.8 and conceded 1.3 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Le Havre scored 1.0 and conceded 1.5 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Le Havre · last 10 away: 5 defeats5/10

Marseille: 10 games · Le Havre: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

2.0Goals scored (avg)1.3

1.4Goals conceded (avg)1.7

3.4Total goals per gameleague 3.03.0

10/10Over 0.5league %9210/10

8/10Over 1.5league %799/10

7/10Over 2.5league %613/10

5/10Over 3.5league %363/10

2/10Over 4.5league %163/10

7/10Both scoreleague %637/10

2/10Clean sheets1/10

1/10Failed to score2/10

Marseille: 10 games · Le Havre: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.5Goals scored (avg)1.1

1.9Goals conceded (avg)2.0

3.4Total goals per gameleague 3.03.1

10/10Over 0.5league %929/10

7/10Over 1.5league %797/10

5/10Over 2.5league %615/10

4/10Over 3.5league %364/10

4/10Over 4.5league %163/10

5/10Both scoreleague %636/10

1/10Clean sheets2/10

4/10Failed to score3/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%18 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Marseille win 176, 154 end level and Le Havre win 670. The actual result comes up 176 times in 1000.

1.63 – 3.10 The score the chances deserved (xG): Marseille 1.63 – 3.10 Le Havre.

8.2

Man of the match: J. Maja (Le Havre), rated 8.2.

%64 Our model's pre-match chance of a Marseille win.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 7 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Marseille · Ligue 1

Le Havre · Ligue 1

Marseille · All games

Le Havre · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Marseille's ground

Last 7 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match