Fortuna Sittard – Excelsior: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Eredivisie · Netherlands · Matchday 10

Fortuna SittardEredivisie · #6

1-0Sunday, October 25

ExcelsiorEredivisie · #13

Match events

Fortuna SittardExcelsior

41'Sven Simons
45'⇄Ole RomenyOff: Sven Simons
45'⇄Ágúst Orri ThorsteinssonOff: Noah Naujoks
56'⇄David GardenOff: Nesto groen
58'Shiloh 't Zand
66'⇄Daley SinkgravenOff: Kristoffer Peterson

Chances to win

Fortuna Sittard%39

Draw%27

Excelsior%34

At a glance

Over 1.5

%57Over 2.5

%61Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Both score.

%61Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Missed

Other scenarios

Over 2.5%57

Under 2.5%43

Fortuna Sittard win%39

Not both score%39

Excelsior win%34

Draw%27

Why?

Fortuna Sittard: both sides scored in 9 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

Fortuna SittardD2-2D1-1W1-0L1-5W3-2

ExcelsiorL0-4L1-5D2-2L1-2D2-2

Last 8 meetings

4Fortuna Sittard won

2Draw

2Excelsior won

3.3
Goals per game5/8
Over 2.55/8
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Fortuna Sittard · last 10 at home1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Excelsior · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Fortuna Sittard · last 10 at home4.2 corners, 1.1 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners

Excelsior · last 10 away3.7 corners, 1.0 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/10Over 4.5 corners4/10Over 5.5 corners3/10Over 0.5 cards7/10Over 1.5 cards2/10

22Shiloh Kiesar ’t Zand

Bench

L. Koopmans, K. Reitmaier, S. Wylin, Iván Márquez, J. Dahlhaus, D. Sinkgraven, Y. Oukili, Ganni Buyukhan, M. Ihattaren, O. Romeny

Excelsior · 4-3-3

1S. van Gassel

3R. Meissen

4C. Widell

12K. Bos

14J. Plug

6D. van Vianen

10N. Naujoks

20L. Hartjes

7A. Sliti

8I. Yegoian

28N. Groen

Bench

Celton Biai, S. Janssen, V. Sulzbacher, Giulliano Cairo, Á. Þorsteinsson, Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira, Mario Domínguez, A. Jahanbakhsh, D. Garden, I. Silva Timas

Excelsior – Fortuna SittardMay 21, 2023 · Eredivisie3-0

Fortuna Sittard – ExcelsiorSeptember 17, 2022 · Eredivisie1-0

Fortuna Sittard – ExcelsiorFebruary 10, 2019 · Eredivisie4-1

Excelsior – Fortuna SittardAugust 11, 2018 · Eredivisie1-1

Jasper DahlhausOff: Nick de Groot

76'⇄Alireza JahanbakhshOff: Aymen sliti

76'⇄Simon JanssenOff: Kasey Bos

82'⇄Mohammed IhattarenOff: Philip Brittijn

86'⇄Iván MárquezOff: Edouard Michut

90+1'⚽Rodrigo GuthAssist: Mohammed Ihattaren

Statistics

43%Possession57%

0.47Expected goals0.41

7Total shots6

5Shots on target2

7Corners4

14Fouls13

2Offsides2

2Yellow cards1

0Red cards0

2Saves3

Excelsior: both sides scored in 7 of their last 10 away matches.

Fortuna Sittard scored 1.4 and conceded 2.1 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Excelsior scored 2.1 and conceded 1.7 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Fortuna Sittard · last 10 at home: both scored 9 times9/10

Excelsior · last 10 away: both scored 7 times7/10

Fortuna Sittard: 10 games · Excelsior: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.3Goals scored (avg)2.2

2.0Goals conceded (avg)1.5

3.3Total goals per gameleague 3.83.7

10/10Over 0.5league %9910/10

9/10Over 1.5league %919/10

6/10Over 2.5league %739/10

4/10Over 3.5league %617/10

3/10Over 4.5league %322/10

8/10Both scoreleague %725/10

1/10Clean sheets3/10

1/10Failed to score2/10

Fortuna Sittard: 10 games · Excelsior: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.7Goals scored (avg)1.5

1.7Goals conceded (avg)1.9

3.4Total goals per gameleague 3.83.4

10/10Over 0.5league %9910/10

8/10Over 1.5league %919/10

6/10Over 2.5league %739/10

6/10Over 3.5league %614/10

3/10Over 4.5league %321/10

7/10Both scoreleague %726/10

2/10Clean sheets2/10

1/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%27 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Fortuna Sittard win 272, 499 end level and Excelsior win 230. The actual result comes up 272 times in 1000.

90+1'

Rodrigo Guth decided it in minute 90.

0.47 – 0.41 The score the chances deserved (xG): Fortuna Sittard 0.47 – 0.41 Excelsior.

8.0

Man of the match: Justin Quincy Hubner (Fortuna Sittard), rated 8.0.

1 more numbers for this match in Premium

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 8 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Fortuna Sittard · Eredivisie

Excelsior · Eredivisie

Fortuna Sittard · All games

Excelsior · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Fortuna Sittard's ground

Last 8 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match