Heerenveen – Excelsior: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Eredivisie · Netherlands · Matchday 9

HeerenveenEredivisie · #7

4-0Friday, October 16

ExcelsiorEredivisie · #13

Match events

HeerenveenExcelsior

11'⚽Dylan VentePenalty
43'Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson
45'⇄Mario Domínguez FrancoOff: David Garden
54'⚽Oliver Johansen BraudeAssist: Jacob Trenskow
66'⇄Ilano Silva TimasOff: Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson
66'⇄Valentin SulzbacherOff: Aymen sliti

Chances to win

Heerenveen%58

Draw%22

Excelsior%20

At a glance

Over 1.5

%65Over 2.5

%63Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%65Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 7.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%63

Heerenveen win%58

Not both score%37

Under 2.5%35

Draw%22

Excelsior win%20

Why?

Heerenveen: 3+ goals in 6 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

HeerenveenL0-2W4-0D0-0L2-3D2-2

ExcelsiorL1-5D2-2L1-2D2-2W3-0

Last 6 meetings

3Heerenveen won

1Draw

2Excelsior won

2.2
Goals per game4/6
Over 2.52/6
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Heerenveen · last 10 at home3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Excelsior · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Heerenveen · last 10 at home5.8 corners, 1.6 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners9/10Over 4.5 corners7/10Over 5.5 corners4/10

Excelsior · last 10 away3.9 corners, 1.0 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/10Over 4.5 corners4/10Over 5.5 corners3/10Over 0.5 cards7/10Over 1.5 cards2/10

2Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira

Bench

Celton Biai, O. Turay, D. van Vianen, N. Naujoks, V. Sulzbacher, Giulliano Cairo, Mario Domínguez, A. Jahanbakhsh, I. Silva Timas, N. Groen

Heerenveen – ExcelsiorMay 13, 2023 · Eredivisie0-0

Excelsior – HeerenveenNovember 5, 2022 · Eredivisie0-1

66'⇄Osman TurayOff: Simon Janssen

73'⇄Marko FarjiOff: Maxence Rivera

77'⇄Noah NaujoksOff: Eric da Silva Moreira

82'⇄Luca OyenOff: Nolhan courtens

82'⇄Ringo MeerveldOff: Levi Smans

82'⇄Roberts UldriķisOff: Dylan Vente

84'⚽Luca OyenAssist: Ringo Meerveld

86'⇄Hristiyan PetrovOff: Maas Willemsen

88'⚽Jacob Trenskow

Statistics

52%Possession48%

2.33Expected goals0.73

14Total shots5

7Shots on target1

4Corners1

9Fouls10

3Offsides0

0Yellow cards1

0Red cards0

1Saves3

Excelsior: 3+ goals in 9 of their last 10 away matches.

Heerenveen scored 1.8 and conceded 1.0 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Excelsior scored 2.2 and conceded 1.5 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Heerenveen · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 6 times6/10

Excelsior · last 10 away: 3+ goals 9 times9/10

Heerenveen: 10 games · Excelsior: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.8Goals scored (avg)2.2

0.8Goals conceded (avg)1.5

2.6Total goals per gameleague 3.83.7

8/10Over 0.5league %9910/10

7/10Over 1.5league %919/10

6/10Over 2.5league %739/10

3/10Over 3.5league %617/10

2/10Over 4.5league %322/10

4/10Both scoreleague %725/10

5/10Clean sheets3/10

3/10Failed to score2/10

Heerenveen: 10 games · Excelsior: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.9Goals scored (avg)1.5

1.3Goals conceded (avg)1.9

3.2Total goals per gameleague 3.83.4

9/10Over 0.5league %9910/10

9/10Over 1.5league %919/10

6/10Over 2.5league %739/10

6/10Over 3.5league %614/10

2/10Over 4.5league %321/10

4/10Both scoreleague %726/10

4/10Clean sheets2/10

3/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

2.33 – 0.73 The score the chances deserved (xG): Heerenveen 2.33 – 0.73 Excelsior.

%73 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Heerenveen win 733, 168 end level and Excelsior win 100. The actual result comes up 733 times in 1000.

14 – 5 Shots: Heerenveen 14 – 5 Excelsior.

7 – 1 Shots on target: Heerenveen 7 – 1 Excelsior.

2 more numbers for this match in Premium

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 6 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Heerenveen · Eredivisie

Excelsior · Eredivisie

Heerenveen · All games

Excelsior · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Heerenveen's ground

Last 6 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match