NEC Nijmegen – Fortuna Sittard: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Eredivisie · Netherlands · Matchday 9

NEC NijmegenEredivisie · #12

2-2Sunday, October 18

Fortuna SittardEredivisie · #6

Match events

NEC NijmegenFortuna Sittard

18'⚽Anthony DescotteAssist: Rodrigo Guth
28'⚽Kevin KersAssist: Dennis Geiger
38'Shiloh 't Zand
45'⇄Kristoffer PetersonOff: Sven Simons
48'⚽Anthony DescotteAssist: Shiloh 't Zand
54'Rodrigo Guth

Chances to win

NEC Nijmegen%55

Draw%23

Fortuna Sittard%22

At a glance

Over 1.5

%64Over 2.5

%63Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%64Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%63

NEC Nijmegen win%55

Not both score%37

Under 2.5%36

Draw%23

Fortuna Sittard win%22

Why?

NEC Nijmegen: 3+ goals in 5 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

NEC NijmegenD1-1D1-1D1-1L0-5L0-3

Fortuna SittardD1-1W1-0L1-5W3-2W3-2

Last 9 meetings

4NEC Nijmegen won

3Draw

2Fortuna Sittard won

3.8
Goals per game6/9
Over 2.58/9
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

NEC Nijmegen · last 10 at home0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 1 games it led at half-time.

Fortuna Sittard · last 10 away0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 4 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

NEC Nijmegen · last 10 at home6.3 corners, 1.6 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners

Fortuna Sittard · last 10 away2.5 corners, 2.0 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners4/10Over 4.5 corners3/10Over 5.5 corners1/10Over 0.5 cards9/10Over 1.5 cards6/10

Bench

N. Polster, Joep Geneste, P. Schuurs, M. Bakker, Y. Moslih, Almugera Raouf Mohammed Kabar, Gabriel Brás, I. Hansen-Aarøen, T. Chery, W. Willumsson, K. Sierhuis, Adam Tahaui

Fortuna Sittard · 5-3-2

31M. Branderhorst

3Rodrigo Guth

6S. van Ottele

12Ivo Pinto

23P. Brittijn

28Justin Quincy Hubner

20É. Michut

22Shiloh Kiesar ’t Zand

52M. Ihattaren

9A. Descotte

25L. Zeefuik

Bench

L. Koopmans, K. Reitmaier, S. Wylin, N. de Groot, D. Sinkgraven, S. Simons, Moussa Gbemou, Ganni Buyukhan, K. Peterson

Fortuna Sittard – NEC NijmegenApril 2, 2024 · Eredivisie1-1

NEC Nijmegen – Fortuna SittardDecember 15, 2023 · Eredivisie4-1

Fortuna Sittard – NEC NijmegenMay 28, 2023 · Eredivisie1-1

NEC Nijmegen – Fortuna SittardOctober 19, 2022 · KNVB Beker3-2

NEC Nijmegen – Fortuna SittardSeptember 10, 2022 · Eredivisie1-1

Adam TahauiOff: Kevin Kers

63'⇄Mitchel BakkerOff: Deveron Fonville

63'⇄Kaj SierhuisOff: Noe Lebreton

70'⇄Daley SinkgravenOff: Lequincio Zeefuik

81'⇄Siebe WylinOff: Shiloh 't Zand

84'⇄Perr SchuursOff: Jamiro Monteiro

84'⇄Willum Thor WillumssonOff: Tobias Storm

86'⇄Nick de GrootOff: Syb Van Ottele

88'VARKaj SierhuisPenalty confirmed

90'✕Mitchel BakkerMissed penalty

90+3'⚽Willum Thor WillumssonAssist: Perr Schuurs

Statistics

74%Possession26%

3.06Expected goals0.45

24Total shots5

7Shots on target3

13Corners0

11Fouls10

1Offsides2

0Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

1Saves5

Fortuna Sittard: 3+ goals in 7 of their last 10 away matches.

NEC Nijmegen scored 1.2 and conceded 1.6 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Fortuna Sittard scored 1.6 and conceded 1.9 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

NEC Nijmegen · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 5 times5/10

Fortuna Sittard · last 10 away: 3+ goals 7 times7/10

NEC Nijmegen: 10 games · Fortuna Sittard: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.4Goals scored (avg)1.6

1.8Goals conceded (avg)1.7

3.2Total goals per gameleague 3.83.3

10/10Over 0.5league %9910/10

10/10Over 1.5league %919/10

7/10Over 2.5league %737/10

5/10Over 3.5league %615/10

0/10Over 4.5league %322/10

10/10Both scoreleague %727/10

0/10Clean sheets1/10

0/10Failed to score2/10

NEC Nijmegen: 10 games · Fortuna Sittard: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.4Goals scored (avg)1.7

2.2Goals conceded (avg)1.7

3.6Total goals per gameleague 3.83.4

10/10Over 0.5league %9910/10

10/10Over 1.5league %918/10

7/10Over 2.5league %736/10

6/10Over 3.5league %616/10

2/10Over 4.5league %323/10

8/10Both scoreleague %727/10

0/10Clean sheets2/10

2/10Failed to score1/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%9 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), NEC Nijmegen win 882, 88 end level and Fortuna Sittard win 31. The actual result comes up 88 times in 1000.

3.06 – 0.45 The score the chances deserved (xG): NEC Nijmegen 3.06 – 0.45 Fortuna Sittard.

%23 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.

24 – 5 Shots: NEC Nijmegen 24 – 5 Fortuna Sittard.

3 more numbers for this match in Premium

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 9 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie

Fortuna Sittard · Eredivisie

NEC Nijmegen · All games

Fortuna Sittard · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at NEC Nijmegen's ground

Last 9 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match