NEC Nijmegen – Levski Sofia: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·UEFA Europa League · League phase · Matchday 2

NEC NijmegenEredivisie · #12

1-1Thursday, October 15

Levski SofiaA PFG · #2

Match events

NEC NijmegenLevski Sofia

17'VARFrancisco Everton Mota de CastroGoal cancelled
24'Noe Lebreton
35'⚽Reinaldo Nascimento SatornoAssist: Svetoslav Vutsov
62'⇄Armstrong Oko-FlexOff: David Kusso
62'⇄Gasper TrdinOff: Mehdi Moubarik
64'⚽Tjaronn Chery

Chances to win

NEC Nijmegen%50

Draw%27

Levski Sofia%24

At a glance

Over 1.5

%49Over 2.5

%53Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Under 2.5.

%51Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 5.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%53

NEC Nijmegen win%50

Over 2.5%49

Not both score%47

Draw%27

Levski Sofia win%24

Why?

NEC Nijmegen: 2 or fewer goals in 4 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

NEC NijmegenD1-1D1-1L0-5L0-3D2-2

Levski SofiaW2-0L0-1D0-0W1-0W2-1

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

NEC Nijmegen · last 10 at home0/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 1 games it led at half-time.

Levski Sofia · last 10 away2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

NEC Nijmegen · last 10 at home6.3 corners, 1.5 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners7/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners

Levski Sofia · last 5 away4.6 corners, 1.2 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners4/5Over 4.5 corners1/5Over 5.5 corners1/5Over 0.5 cards3/5Over 1.5 cards1/5

NEC Nijmegen · 3-4-3

1G. Crettaz

4P. Schuurs

24Deveron Fonville

73Gabriel Brás

6D. Nejašmić

20N. Lebreton

34Kevin Kers

99Clement Bischoff

9T. Chery

10D. Tadić

30B. Linssen

Bench

N. Polster, Joep Geneste, A. Kaplan, Y. Moslih, Almugera Raouf Mohammed Kabar, W. Willumsson, D. Geiger, Jamiro Monteiro, K. Sierhuis

Levski Sofia · 4-3-3

92S. Vutsov

3Maicon

4C. Makoun

21Aldair

50K. Dimitrov

8M. Grujić

19E. El Moubarik

35Serginho

7Reinaldo

17Everton Bala

27David Kusso

Bench

O. Vladimirov, M. Lukov, Hevertton Santos, Álex Centelles, N. Serafimov, G. Trdin, J. Perea, A. Oko-Flex, M. Soula

Ahmetcan KaplanOff: Perr Schuurs

75'⇄Mazire SoulaOff: Marko Grujić

75'⇄Juan Esteban Perea SanchezOff: Francisco Everton Mota de Castro

84'⇄Willum Thor WillumssonOff: Dušan Tadić

84'⇄Dennis GeigerOff: Clement Bischoff

90+2'⇄Almugera KabarOff: Noe Lebreton

90+2'⇄Yassin MoslihOff: Gabriel·Bras

90+4'⇄Álex CentellesOff: Reinaldo Nascimento Satorno

Statistics

51%Possession49%

2.16Expected goals1.28

18Total shots8

9Shots on target2

6Corners1

14Fouls14

1Offsides1

1Yellow cards0

0Red cards0

1Saves8

Levski Sofia: 2 or fewer goals in 5 of their last 10 away matches.

NEC Nijmegen scored 1.3 and conceded 1.7 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Levski Sofia scored 1.3 and conceded 1.0 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Levski Sofia · last 10 away: 2 or fewer goals 5 times5/10

NEC Nijmegen: 10 games · Levski Sofia: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.4Goals scored (avg)1.4

1.8Goals conceded (avg)0.9

3.2Total goals per gameleague 2.92.3

10/10Over 0.5league %939/10

10/10Over 1.5league %768/10

7/10Over 2.5league %604/10

5/10Over 3.5league %332/10

0/10Over 4.5league %170/10

10/10Both scoreleague %465/10

0/10Clean sheets4/10

0/10Failed to score2/10

NEC Nijmegen: 10 games · Levski Sofia: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.4Goals scored (avg)1.4

2.2Goals conceded (avg)0.6

3.6Total goals per gameleague 2.92.0

10/10Over 0.5league %939/10

10/10Over 1.5league %767/10

7/10Over 2.5league %603/10

6/10Over 3.5league %331/10

2/10Over 4.5league %170/10

8/10Both scoreleague %465/10

0/10Clean sheets4/10

2/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%20 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), NEC Nijmegen win 575, 204 end level and Levski Sofia win 221. The actual result comes up 204 times in 1000.

%27 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.

2.16 – 1.28 The score the chances deserved (xG): NEC Nijmegen 2.16 – 1.28 Levski Sofia.

18 – 8 Shots: NEC Nijmegen 18 – 8 Levski Sofia.

3 more numbers for this match in Premium

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

NEC Nijmegen · European games

Levski Sofia · European games

NEC Nijmegen · All games

Levski Sofia · All games

Missing players

Previous meetings

Model chances

Starting line-ups

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match