Fortuna Sittard – Twente: probabilities, statistics and live score

Fortuna SittardEredivisie · #6

1-1Saturday, October 10

TwenteEredivisie · #4

Match events

Fortuna SittardTwente

9'⚽Anthony DescotteAssist: Mohammed Ihattaren
34'⚽Robin PropperAssist: Wout Weghorst
55'⇄Kristian Nokkvi HlynssonOff: Marko Pjaca
67'⇄Thomas Van den BeltOff: Daouda Weidmann
74'Bart van Rooij
75'⇄Kristoffer PetersonOff: Lequincio Zeefuik

Chances to win

Fortuna Sittard%16

Draw%19

Twente%65

At a glance

Over 1.5

%68Over 2.5

%61Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

Last 5 matches

Fortuna SittardW1-0L1-5W3-2W3-2L0-2

TwenteW3-2W2-0W1-0D2-2W

Last 8 meetings

0Fortuna Sittard won

1Draw

7Twente won

3.0
Goals per game6/8
Over 2.54/8
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Fortuna Sittard · last 10 at home1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).7/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 5 games it led at half-time.

Twente · last 10 away1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).2/10games led at half-time.Won 1 of the 2 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Fortuna Sittard · last 10 at home4.0 corners, 1.4 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/10Over 4.5 corners5/10Over 5.5 corners

Twente · 4-2-3-1

16J. Drommel

3R. Pröpper

4R. Nijstad

28B. van Rooij

29A. Adelgaard

6R. Zerrouki

7M. Pjaca

8D. Weidmann

10Y. Taha

11D. Rots

9W. Weghorst

Bench

R. Pasveer, Yannick Gerritsen, M. Rosiak, K. Kurowski, K. Hlynsson, Jordy Bawuah, T. van den Belt, Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink, N. Ünüvar

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%68Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 7.Missed

Other scenarios

Twente win%65

Both score%61

Not both score%39

Under 2.5%32

Draw%19

Fortuna Sittard win%16

Why?

Fortuna Sittard · last 10 at home: 3+ goals 8 times8/10

Twente · last 10 away: 3+ goals 9 times9/10

Fortuna Sittard: 3+ goals in 8 of their last 10 home matches.
Twente: 3+ goals in 9 of their last 10 away matches.
Fortuna Sittard scored 1.5 and conceded 2.2 per game in their last 10 home matches.
Twente scored 2.0 and conceded 1.9 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Fortuna Sittard: 10 games · Twente: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.3Goals scored (avg)2.1

2.0Goals conceded (avg)1.7

3.3Total goals per gameleague 3.83.8

10/10Over 0.5league %9910/10

9/10Over 1.5league %909/10

6/10Over 2.5league %727/10

4/10Over 3.5league %606/10

3/10Over 4.5league %324/10

8/10Both scoreleague %708/10

1/10Clean sheets1/10

1/10Failed to score1/10

Fortuna Sittard: 10 games · Twente: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.5Goals scored (avg)2.1

1.7Goals conceded (avg)0.9

3.2Total goals per gameleague 3.83.0

10/10Over 0.5league %9910/10

8/10Over 1.5league %908/10

5/10Over 2.5league %725/10

5/10Over 3.5league %604/10

3/10Over 4.5league %323/10

7/10Both scoreleague %706/10

2/10Clean sheets4/10

1/10Failed to score0/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%30 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Fortuna Sittard win 277, 298 end level and Twente win 426. The actual result comes up 298 times in 1000.

%19 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.

0.89 – 1.18 The score the chances deserved (xG): Fortuna Sittard 0.89 – 1.18 Twente.

8.2

Man of the match: A. Descotte (Fortuna Sittard), rated 8.2.

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

Last 5 matches

Last 8 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Fortuna Sittard's ground

Last 8 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Fortuna Sittard · Eredivisie

Twente · Eredivisie

Fortuna Sittard · All games

Twente · All games

Statistics

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match