Atalanta – Frosinone: probabilities, statistics and live score

← Back·Serie A · Italy · Matchday 8

AtalantaSerie A · #12

4-4Sunday, October 25

FrosinoneSerie A · #6

Match events

AtalantaFrosinone

1'⚽Romano Schmid
7'Gabriele Bracaglia
14'⚽Nikola KrstovićAssist: Charles De Ketelaere
17'⚽Romano SchmidAssist: Farès Ghedjemis
28'Giorgi Kvernadze
29'⇄Lorenzo BernasconiOff: Raoul Bellanova
29'

Chances to win

Atalanta%52

Draw%23

Frosinone%25

At a glance

Over 1.5

%70Over 2.5

%69Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Over 2.5.

%70Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 7.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Both score%69

Atalanta win%52

Not both score%31

Under 2.5%30

Frosinone win%25

Draw%23

Why?

Atalanta: 3+ goals in 4 of their last 10 home matches.

Last 5 matches

AtalantaL0-2L2-3W3-1W3-1L0-2

FrosinoneW4-2L0-3W2-0D1-1W3-2

Last 6 meetings

4Atalanta won

1Draw

1Frosinone won

3.2
Goals per game4/6
Over 2.51/6
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Atalanta · last 10 at home2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Frosinone · last 10 away3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).5/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 5 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Atalanta · last 10 at home5.1 corners, 0.9 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners6/10Over 4.5 corners4/10Over 5.5 corners

Frosinone · last 10 away6.6 corners, 2.4 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners10/10Over 4.5 corners8/10Over 5.5 corners5/10Over 0.5 cards8/10Over 1.5 cards7/10

Bench

M. Sonzogni, M. Sportiello, L. Bernasconi, M. Plaia, Mario Pasalic, L. Samardžić, J. Idele, N. Zalewski, G. Scamacca

Frosinone · 4-2-3-1

22L. Palmisani

2G. Cittadini

3G. Calvani

20A. Oyono

79G. Bracaglia

7F. Ghedjemis

10R. Schmid

14G. Calò

17G. Kvernadze

73P. Masini

9A. Raimondo

Bench

M. Pisseri, S. Desplanches, W. Amey, K. Akpoguma, I. Monterisi, A. Terzić, Omar Fayed, E. Tchato, Matteo Cichella, A. El Azzouzi, L. Hasa, D. Bîrligea, A. Zerbin, S. Fini, T. Bobček

Frosinone – AtalantaJanuary 23, 2016 · Serie A0-0

Atalanta – FrosinoneAugust 30, 2015 · Serie A2-0

Charles De KetelaerePenalty confirmed

33'⚽Éderson José dos SantosPenalty

45'⚽Nikola KrstovićAssist: Davide Zappacosta

45'⇄Aleksa TerzićOff: Gabriele Bracaglia

48'⚽Giacomo CalòAssist: Farès Ghedjemis

50'⚽Elif ElmasAssist: Nikola Krstović

62'⇄Mario PašalićOff: Gianluca Gaetano

62'⇄Nicola ZalewskiOff: Jonathan Rowe

65'⇄Alessio ZerbinOff: Giorgi Kvernadze

65'⇄Matteo CichellaOff: Patrizio Masini

69'Éderson José dos Santos

75'⇄Ilario MonterisiOff: Giorgio Cittadini

77'⇄Lazar SamardzicOff: Charles De Ketelaere

77'⇄Gianluca ScamaccaOff: Nikola Krstović

82'⚽Aleksa TerzićAssist: Farès Ghedjemis

89'⇄Enzo TchatoOff: Anthony Oyono

90+2'Antonio Raimondo

Statistics

46%Possession54%

3.89Expected goals1.81

22Total shots24

9Shots on target10

8Corners9

7Fouls13

2Offsides2

1Yellow cards4

0Red cards0

6Saves3

Frosinone: 3+ goals in 6 of their last 10 away matches.

Atalanta scored 1.1 and conceded 0.8 per game in their last 10 home matches.

Frosinone scored 1.7 and conceded 1.1 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Frosinone · last 10 away: 3+ goals 6 times6/10

Atalanta: 10 games · Frosinone: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.5Goals scored (avg)1.9

1.1Goals conceded (avg)1.5

2.6Total goals per gameleague 3.23.4

8/10Over 0.5league %9810/10

6/10Over 1.5league %869/10

5/10Over 2.5league %607/10

3/10Over 3.5league %344/10

1/10Over 4.5league %211/10

6/10Both scoreleague %587/10

3/10Clean sheets2/10

3/10Failed to score1/10

Atalanta: 10 games · Frosinone: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.7Goals scored (avg)2.3

1.9Goals conceded (avg)1.5

3.6Total goals per gameleague 3.23.8

10/10Over 0.5league %9810/10

9/10Over 1.5league %869/10

7/10Over 2.5league %606/10

5/10Over 3.5league %344/10

2/10Over 4.5league %214/10

7/10Both scoreleague %586/10

1/10Clean sheets2/10

2/10Failed to score2/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%12 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Atalanta win 744, 120 end level and Frosinone win 136. The actual result comes up 120 times in 1000.

%23 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.

3.89 – 1.81 The score the chances deserved (xG): Atalanta 3.89 – 1.81 Frosinone.

9.5

Man of the match: N. Krstović (Atalanta), rated 9.5.

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Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Open with Premium

Halves
Results
Corners
Cards
Attack
When they score
When they concede

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Last 5 matches

Last 6 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Atalanta · Serie A

Frosinone · Serie A

Atalanta · All games

Frosinone · All games

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Atalanta's ground

Last 6 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Statistics

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match