The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Under 2.5.
%61Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓
Other scenarios
Not both score%55
Both score%45
Boca Juniors win%43
Over 2.5%39
Draw%30
Independiente win%26
Why?
Independiente: 2 or fewer goals in 5 of their last 10 home matches.
Last 5 matches
IndependienteD1-1D0-0L1-4W2-1D1-1
Boca JuniorsW3-1W2-1L0-1D2-2W3-0
Last 15 meetings
3Independiente won
8Draw
4Boca Juniors won
1.7 Goals per game4/15 Over 2.56/15 Both score
Handicap and HT/FT history
By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.
Independiente · last 10 at home2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).4/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 4 games it led at half-time.
Boca Juniors · last 10 away3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 3 games it led at half-time.
Corners and cards
Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.
Independiente · last 9 at home7.3 corners, 2.0 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners8/9Over 4.5 corners8/9Over 5.5 corners8/9Over 0.5 cards
Referee
Nazareno Arasa5.6 cards a match in 38 recorded games
Premium members onlyLikely scores, likely scorers, corner, card and half chances.
Independiente · Liga Profesional Argentina
3W 4D 3LScored 9 · conceded 122.5 Üst 4/10KG 5/10
Boca Juniors · Liga Profesional Argentina
5W 5D 0LScored 18 · conceded 92.5 Üst 5/10KG 7/10
Independiente · All games
3W 4D 3LScored 9 · conceded 152.5 Üst 5/10KG 5/10
Boca Juniors · All games
7W 2D 1LScored 20 · conceded 92.5 Üst 6/10KG 6/10
Missing players
No absentees reported
Starting line-ups
Independiente · 4-3-3
77S. Mele
4S. Arias
5N. Banegas
35J. Arrayago
36S. Valdez
8M. Meza
16M. Perez
23I. Marcone
6E. Ávila
7S. Montiel
24J. Palais
Bench
R. Rey, F. Calderón, J. Fedorco, F. Zabala, L. Godoy, L. Cabral, Lautaro Millán, D. Martínez, I. Morales, M. Abaldo, F. Tempone
Boca Juniors · 4-3-3
1Á. Montero
2L. Di Lollo
This fixture at Independiente's ground
The meetings the home side hosted, of the last 8
2Independiente won
3Draw
3Boca Juniors won
Independiente last won here on Nov 25, 2021: Independiente 1-0 Boca Juniors.Boca Juniors last won here on Jul 29, 2023: Independiente 0-2 Boca Juniors.2.0 goals a game here · over 2.5 2/8 · BTTS 4/8
Last 15 meetings
3Independiente won
8Draw
4Boca Juniors won
1.7 Goals per game4/15 Over 2.56/15 Both score
Previous meetings
Boca Juniors – IndependienteApril 12, 2026 · Liga Profesional Argentina1-1
Boca Juniors – IndependienteMay 20, 2025 · Liga Profesional Argentina0-1
Boca Juniors – IndependienteDecember 15, 2024 · Liga Profesional Argentina0-0
Independiente · last 10 at home: 2 or fewer goals 5 times5/10
Boca Juniors · last 10 away: 2 or fewer goals 5 times5/10
Independiente: 10 games · Boca Juniors: 10 games · league average in grey
Goals
1.1Goals scored (avg)1.9
1.3Goals conceded (avg)0.9
2.4Total goals per gameleague 2.12.8
9/10Over 0.5league %889/10
5/10Over 1.5league %658/10
4/10Over 2.5league %385/10
3/10Over 3.5league %165/10
2/10Over 4.5league %61/10
4/10Both scoreleague %476/10
3/10Clean sheets4/10
4/10Failed to score1/10
Independiente: 10 games · Boca Juniors: 10 games · league average in grey
Goals
0.9Goals scored (avg)2.0
1.2Goals conceded (avg)0.9
2.1Total goals per gameleague 2.12.9
8/10Over 0.5league %8810/10
6/10Over 1.5league %658/10
4/10Over 2.5league %386/10
2/10Over 3.5league %164/10
1/10Over 4.5league %61/10
5/10Both scoreleague %476/10
3/10Clean sheets3/10
4/10Failed to score1/10
The real story of the match
What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.
%37 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Independiente win 398, 230 end level and Boca Juniors win 372. The actual result comes up 372 times in 1000.
88' Facundo Ezequiel Herrera decided it in minute 88.
IndependienteApertura - Group A · #5
Boca JuniorsApertura - Group A · #2