The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Under 2.5.
%60Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 6.Came true ✓
Other scenarios
Not both score%53
Both score%47
Racing Club win%41
Over 2.5%40
Draw%31
Independiente win%28
Why?
Racing Club: 2 or fewer goals in 4 of their last 10 home matches.
Last 5 matches
Racing ClubL0-2W2-1L2-3W3-1L1-2
IndependienteD0-0L1-4W2-1D1-1W1-0
Last 9 meetings
3Racing Club won
4Draw
2Independiente won
1.3 Goals per game1/9 Over 2.53/9 Both score
Handicap and HT/FT history
By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.
Racing Club · last 10 at home2/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 2 of the 3 games it led at half-time.
Independiente · last 10 away3/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).8/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 3 games it led at half-time.
Corners and cards
Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.
Racing Club · last 7 at home4.7 corners, 1.9 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners5/7Over 4.5 corners3/7Over 5.5 corners3/7Over 0.5 cards
Referee
Facundo Raul Tello Figueroa5.1 cards a match in 40 recorded games
Premium members onlyLikely scores, likely scorers, corner, card and half chances.
Racing Club · Liga Profesional Argentina
2W 1D 7LScored 11 · conceded 182.5 Üst 7/10KG 8/10
Independiente · Liga Profesional Argentina
3W 3D 4LScored 8 · conceded 122.5 Üst 4/10KG 4/10
Racing Club · All games
3W 1D 6LScored 12 · conceded 162.5 Üst 6/10KG 7/10
Independiente · All games
3W 3D 4LScored 8 · conceded 152.5 Üst 5/10KG 4/10
Missing players
No absentees reported
Starting line-ups
Racing Club · 4-3-3
25F. Cambeses
14J. Barinaga
19I. Rodríguez
38M. Martinez
43G. Escudero
5M. Kranevitter
11M. Zaracho
20G. Lodico
9A. Martínez
17T. Conechny
32L. Díaz
Bench
M. Tagliamonte, M. Pérez, E. Cannavo, A. Espino, N. Colombo, D. Ortegoza, A. Fernández, L. Pérez, A. Tello, D. Vergara, E. Torres, F. Fraga
Independiente · 4-3-3
33R. Rey
4
This fixture at Racing Club's ground
The meetings the home side hosted, of the last 4
1Racing Club won
2Draw
1Independiente won
Racing Club last won here on Jul 10, 2022: Racing Club 1-0 Independiente.Independiente last won here on Oct 1, 2023: Racing Club 0-2 Independiente.0.8 goals a game here · over 2.5 0/4 · BTTS 0/4
Last 9 meetings
3Racing Club won
4Draw
2Independiente won
1.3 Goals per game1/9 Over 2.53/9 Both score
Previous meetings
Independiente – Racing ClubApril 4, 2026 · Liga Profesional Argentina1-0
Racing Club – IndependienteSeptember 28, 2025 · Liga Profesional Argentina0-0
Independiente – Racing ClubMarch 16, 2025 · Liga Profesional Argentina1-1
Racing Club – Independiente
7/7
Over 1.5 cards4/7
Independiente · last 8 away3.4 corners, 2.4 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners4/8Over 4.5 corners2/8Over 5.5 corners0/8Over 0.5 cards8/8Over 1.5 cards6/8
Independiente · last 10 away: 2 or fewer goals 5 times5/10
Racing Club: 10 games · Independiente: 10 games · league average in grey
Goals
1.2Goals scored (avg)1.2
1.5Goals conceded (avg)1.1
2.7Total goals per gameleague 2.12.3
10/10Over 0.5league %889/10
8/10Over 1.5league %657/10
5/10Over 2.5league %384/10
3/10Over 3.5league %163/10
1/10Over 4.5league %60/10
7/10Both scoreleague %474/10
1/10Clean sheets4/10
2/10Failed to score3/10
Racing Club: 10 games · Independiente: 10 games · league average in grey
Goals
1.3Goals scored (avg)0.9
1.7Goals conceded (avg)1.2
3.0Total goals per gameleague 2.12.1
10/10Over 0.5league %888/10
9/10Over 1.5league %656/10
7/10Over 2.5league %384/10
3/10Over 3.5league %162/10
1/10Over 4.5league %61/10
8/10Both scoreleague %475/10
0/10Clean sheets3/10
2/10Failed to score4/10
The real story of the match
What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.
%28 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Racing Club win 409, 279 end level and Independiente win 312. The actual result comes up 279 times in 1000.
%31 Our model's pre-match chance of a draw.
1.27 – 1.07 The score the chances deserved (xG): Racing Club 1.27 – 1.07 Independiente.
7.3 Man of the match: M. Zaracho (Racing Club), rated 7.3.