Cruzeiro – Remo: probabilities, statistics and live score

CruzeiroSerie A · #3

1-0Saturday, October 24

RemoSerie A · #19

Match events

CruzeiroRemo

26'⇄Wesley Gassova Ribeiro TeixeiraOff: Keny arroyo
45'⇄Leonel PiccoOff: Ze Ricardo
45+5'⚽Fabrício BrunoAssist: Matheus Pereira
50'Patrick Bezerra do Nascimento
62'⇄David Francisco·Trindade BragaOff: Eduardo Melo
62'⇄Matheus HenriqueOff: Zé Lucas

Chances to win

Cruzeiro%71

Draw%18

Remo%11

At a glance

Over 1.5

%65Over 2.5

%55Both score

First-half goal 10+ corners 4+ cards

Last 5 matches

CruzeiroW4-2L2-4W2-0W3-1L1-2

RemoD1-1D0-0D1-1L1-2L

Last 5 meetings

2Cruzeiro won

0Draw

3Remo won

2.0
Goals per game2/5
Over 2.52/5
Both score

Handicap and HT/FT history

By how much the games ended, and at half-time; home side at home, visitors away.

Cruzeiro · last 10 at home5/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).10/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).3/10games led at half-time.Won 3 of the 3 games it led at half-time.

Remo · last 10 away1/10games won by 2 or more (what a 0:1 handicap needs).9/10games not lost, or lost by just 1 (what a 1:0 handicap needs).1/10games led at half-time.Won 0 of the 1 games it led at half-time.

Corners and cards

Each side's own corners and cards; home side at home, visitors away, recent games with statistics.

Cruzeiro · last 10 at home6.0 corners, 2.4 cards a gameOver 3.5 corners8/10Over 4.5 corners6/10Over 5.5 corners

Remo · 4-2-3-1

88Marcelo Rangel

6Marlon

13Marllon

27Zé Ivaldo

79Marcelinho

7Jája Silva

8Patrick

21A. Galeano

28José Welison

55Zé Ricardo

39Eduardo Melo

Bench

Ygor Vinhas, Ivan, Matheus Alexandre, Leo Andrade, D. Tchamba, L. Picco, David Francisco, Edson Fernando, Vitor Bueno

What the data says

The data says the most likely scenario for this match is Cruzeiro win.

%71Of 10 matches that look this likely, this happens in about 7.Came true ✓

Other scenarios

Over 2.5%65

Both score%55

Not both score%45

Under 2.5%35

Draw%18

Remo win%11

Why?

Cruzeiro · last 10 at home: 6 wins6/10

Cruzeiro won 6 of their last 10 home matches.
Cruzeiro scored 1.9 and conceded 0.7 per game in their last 10 home matches.
Remo scored 1.2 and conceded 1.4 per game in their last 10 away matches.

Chances come from match data and market prices. A probability, not a certainty.

Cruzeiro: 10 games · Remo: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.6Goals scored (avg)0.9

0.7Goals conceded (avg)1.4

2.3Total goals per gameleague 2.72.3

10/10Over 0.5league %958/10

8/10Over 1.5league %787/10

3/10Over 2.5league %516/10

2/10Over 3.5league %251/10

0/10Over 4.5league %131/10

6/10Both scoreleague %596/10

3/10Clean sheets2/10

1/10Failed to score4/10

Cruzeiro: 10 games · Remo: 10 games · league average in grey

Goals

1.9Goals scored (avg)0.9

1.5Goals conceded (avg)1.4

3.4Total goals per gameleague 2.72.3

10/10Over 0.5league %959/10

8/10Over 1.5league %787/10

7/10Over 2.5league %515/10

5/10Over 3.5league %251/10

2/10Over 4.5league %131/10

7/10Both scoreleague %597/10

3/10Clean sheets1/10

0/10Failed to score3/10

The real story of the match

What the score doesn't tell: chances, probabilities and broken runs.

%48 Played 1000 times on these chances (xG), Cruzeiro win 483, 402 end level and Remo win 116. The actual result comes up 483 times in 1000.

0.86 – 0.28 The score the chances deserved (xG): Cruzeiro 0.86 – 0.28 Remo.

8.4

Man of the match: Fabrício Bruno (Cruzeiro), rated 8.4.

%71 Our model's pre-match chance of a Cruzeiro win.

Match events

Chances to win

At a glance

Last 5 matches

Last 5 meetings

Handicap and HT/FT history

Corners and cards

Referee

Missing players

Starting line-ups

This fixture at Cruzeiro's ground

Last 5 meetings

Previous meetings

Model chances

Cruzeiro · Serie A

Remo · Serie A

Cruzeiro · All games

Remo · All games

Statistics

What the data says

Other scenarios

Why?

Goals

Goals

The real story of the match